Dollar weakens after the Non-farm Payroll release

May 4, 2007

Employers in the non-farm sector added 88k jobs in April, the Labor Department reported today.The data came below expectations of 100k and being the lowest since Nov 04. Last month’s data were revised lower down from 180k to 177k. More importantly, Feb’s job growth was also revised down from 113k to 90k. Unemployment rate rose back from 4.4% to 4.5%. Average earnings slow to 0.2% mom, 3.7% increase. This report is ideal from the Fed’s perspective of keeping policy on hold despite concerns that inflation may not moderate. It is consistent with moderate economic growth and a slight easing in labor market pressures. The dollar fell 0.27 percent to $1.3587 per euro at 11:07 a.m. in New York. It touched a record low of $1.3681 on April 27. Further weakening of the dollar is expected in the weeks ahead.

Today’s Strategy: As seen in the chart below, the market reacted to the NFP news at 08:30 by pushing the EUR/USD to 1.3586. The pair quickly retraced to 1.3554 providing an excellent entry opportunity. BUY 2 lots EUR/USD at 1.3554 stop 1.3534, 1st profit target 1.3610, 2nd 1.3630.

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