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Daily FX

September 7, 2010

GBPUSD: Consolidation Persists in Falling Channel

Crude Postures for a Breakout but Gold Needs Momentum for Record Highs

Once again, we are left to qualify the sincerity of investor sentiment. Wednesday’s session brought a clear advance in the appetite for risk; but considering the lack of a distinct trend for equities, crude and even progress on gold, it seems traders are still waiting. [Link]

US Dollar Pulls Back as Risky Assets Rebound but Bias Remains Bullish

The US Dollar pulled back as global stock and oil prices recovered but the bearish technical setups created with yesterday’s selloff have not been invalidated, hinting the greenback remains poised to advance amid renewed risk aversion. [Link]

Entering a Trade in a Downtrend

Student’s Question: Here's the support line. But I am still confused as to when should I enter the trade and when should I exit the trade according to the historic chart I posted? [Link]

European Financial Fears Not Trend Material, But Short-term Opportunities Develop With Euro, Pound

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Jamie's Trading Video: 09/08

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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 09-08

The euro is weak across the board. In fact, the EURAUD is trading at a 19 year low and an objective is 1300 pips lower. [Link]

U.S. Equities Rally Despite Drop in Mortgage Applications Last Week

U.S. stocks posted their largest gain in nearly two months despite a report that the number of mortgage applications declined for the first time in six weeks. [Link]

Japanese Yen Forex Options Sentiment Suggests Major Reversal Near

Intensely choppy forex market price action has made short-term US Dollar forecasts especially difficult, but evidence of sentiment extremes in the Japanese Yen suggests that the USDJPY may soon reverse. Forex futures positioning data shows that Non-commercial traders are near the most net-long the Japanese Yen (short USDJPY) since the USDJPY bottomed in late 2009. [Link]

EUR/CAD Under Pressure Following BoC Rate Hike, Ivey PMI Report; Traders Shift Their Focus to the Canadian Employment Report

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GBP/USD: Trading the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain its current policy in September, and the British Pound could face increased volatility following the rate decision as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. [Link]

The Currency Market Acclimates Itself to Exogenous Event Risk as Speculative Interest Fills Out

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AUD/CAD Looks Past BoC Tightening For Reversal

The AUD/CAD is looking to test trend line support following a 25 bps rate hike from the BoC, despite the central bank’s slightly lower outlook for growth. [Link]

USDJPY Trading Opportunities

P otential exists for a USDJPY reversal and strength up towards 8800-9000 before the longer term downtrend resumes. [Link]

Canadian Dollar Outperforms, Japanese Yen Weighed By Risk Appetite

The Canadian dollar pared the overnight decline and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Wednesday, while the Japanese Yen weakened across the board following the rebound in risk sentiment. [Link]

BoC Raises Interest Rates to 1.00 Percent, Ivey PMI Tops Expectations

After becoming the first G-7 member to increase rates since the global financial crisis, the Bank of Canada hiked rates another twenty five basis points in September to 1.00 percent from 0.75 percent the month prior which was widely expected. At the same time, policy makers said that financial conditions are “exceptionally s timulative .” In turn, the Canadian Dollar rallied against all major currencies and extended its advance after the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for the month of August topped expectations. The loonie may extend its advance against the greenback during the North American trade as risk appetite looks to regain its footing. [Link]

Euro Resistance at 12780

The EURUSD decline from 13340 may be unfolding as a series of 3 wave declines (double zigzag). The next opportunity will be from the short side against 12920. 12470 and 12200 are targets. 12780 and 12820 are resistance areas. [Link]

Gold Daily RSI Above 70

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Canadian Dollar Channel Gives Way

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Australian Dollar Closes in on 9220

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Crude Resistance is 7700

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Japanese Yen Turns Up from 15 Year Low

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AUD/USD Channel Provides Scalping Opportunity

The AUD/USD is finding support as risk appetite has returned as concerns over the European banking system has started to fade. An RBA rate hold has left price action at the mercy of broader trends but that could change tonight with the employment report scheduled for release at 01:30 GMT. Therefore, we could see the pair confined to current patterns with traders reluctant to take significant positions ahead of the event risk, making the pair an ideal scalping target. [Link]

GBPUSD Short at risk, long USDJPY above 84.50

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Remain Short GBPUSD; Short EURCAD; Pending Long USDJPY and GBPCHF

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Australian Dollar Cross Pick 09.08.10

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Canadian Dollar Boosted By BoC Rate Hike

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Gold

Gold continues to move up to near the all-time high of 1265.10. [Link]

EUR/AUD

The EUR/AUD printed a new 21-year low yesterday. [Link]

U.S. Dollar Loses Ground Ahead of Fed Beige Book

The greenback weakened across the board, with the EUR/USD paring the sharp decline from the previous day to reach a high of 1.2732 during the overnight trade, and the reserve currency is likely to face increased volatility throughout the day as the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its Beige Book Economic report at 18:00 GMT. [Link]

British Pound Rallies Against the U.S. Dollar Ahead of the BoE Interest Rate Decision

All major currencies were up against the U.S. dollar overnight, with the British pound leading the way, climbing some 0.71 percent ahead of the Bank of England interest rate decision. [Link]

USDJPY: Stay Flat, Looking For Buying Opportunities

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Forex Technical and Fundamental Forecasts for September

EURUSD: Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast USDJPY: US Dollar Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Forecast GBPUSD: British Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast USDCHF: US Dollar Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Forecast USDCAD: US Dollar Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast AUDUSD: Australian Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast NZDUSD: New Zealand Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast [Link]

New Zealand Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

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US Dollar Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

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Australian Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

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Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

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US Dollar Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Forecast

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British Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

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US Dollar Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Forecast

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Daily Sound Bites 09.08

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Markets Continue to Push Yen and Franc Higher Despite Official Concern

We have seen yet another fresh multi-year low for USD/JPY below 83.50, and despite ongoing concerns from Japanese officials over the strength in the local currency, market participants are content on buying the Yen until proven otherwise. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 09.08

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Recovery Losing Momentum; Demand for Exports Falls

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Japanese Yen Outperforms, Further Gains Ahead as Risk Aversion Persists

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade , rising on safety demand as stocks slumped across Asian exchanges. More of the same is promised ahead as stock index futures tick lower, pointing to continued risk aversion. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 09.08

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USD/CHF Classical 09.08

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USD/CAD Classical 09.08

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TECH TALK 09.08

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NZD/USD Classical 09.08

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GBP/USD Classical 09.08

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GBP/JPY Classical 09.08

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EUR/USD Classical 09.08

The latest rally has been well capped ahead of key short-term resistance by 1.2925, with the market now looking like it is poised for a bearish resumption back towards 1.2585 over the coming sessions. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 09.08

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EUR/CHF Classical 09.08

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AUD/USD Classical 09.08

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Yen to Fresh Multi-Year Highs Against Buck; EUR/CHF Record Lows

Crude Oil Gets Boost From Refinery Explosion, Gold Inches Toward All-Time Highs

Without the usual government inventory report on Wednesday, crude oil will likely fluctuate on the usual suspects: equity market direction and the economic sentiment du jour. Gold will attempt to break the all-time highs, but a failure at these levels could lead to a substantial correction. [Link]

London Calling Sep 8

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Japanese Current Account Surplus Widens, Machine Orders Outperform

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NZDUSD: Sell Trade Triggered Below 0.72 Figure

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Dollar Rallies as Speculative Liquidity Meets European Uncertainty, Follow Through is Still Uncertain

Is it really shocking news that European officials understated the potential risk that its regional banks face? It would seem so given the strong risk aversion move and robust dollar bid (especially against the euro) that developed Tuesday. However, that wouldn’t hit at the root of the issue. This particular Wall Street Journal article wasn’t the catalyst for the general market like many analysts have idly claimed. Instead, this was a general concern surrounding the region that had started to build momentum yesterday. [Link]

Gold Marks a Record High Close and Crude Retreats as Risk Appetite Retreats

After an extended holiday weekend for the US markets, speculators would return to an active market with a very clear vote on investor confidence – uncertainty and fear. For the benchmark risk and safe haven commodities, the impact was met with nuance. [Link]

US Dollar to Extend Gains on Safety Demand as Stock Positioning Hints Losses

The US Dollar is likely to continue higher after rebounding from key support on safety demand amid renewed risk aversion as technical positioning points to bearish reversal in global stock performance. [Link]

The Dollar Picks Up with Volatility as Risk Aversion Sets In

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Jamie's Trading Video: 09/07

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US Traders Return to Bid up the Dollar as Investor Optimism Stumbles

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Euro Re-couples with Risk as Banking Concerns Drive Broader Markets

The EUR/USD sunk nearly 200 pips overnight as concerns that European banks are at risk as they hold more potential toxic sovereign debt than reported in the recently performed stress tests. As Europeans rebel against austerity measures aimed at bringing unruly budget deficits under control, the path toward fiscal soundness has become thorny, increasing the potential for defaults. [Link]

Ranging or Trending

Student's Question: If we are looking at the chart, surely it's nothing too difficult to identify whether the market is in range or trending condition since the chart is representing historical prices. But is there any way to know whether the market is going to be trending or range bound ahead of time? [Link]

USD/CAD: Trading the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

Market participants speculate the Bank of Canada to deliver another 25bp rate this month as the economic recovery gathers pace, and hawkish comments following the interest rate decision are likely to spark a bullish reaction in the loonie as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. [Link]

Traders Pile on CAD Short Positions

The COT index indicates that traders are extremely pessimistic the Canadian dollar. Since this reading follows sideways trading, the CAD may soon break down. [Link]

FXCM Files Registration Statement for Initial Public Offering

FXCM Inc. announced today that it has filed a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed initial public offering of its Class A common stock. [Link]

Australian Dollar Under Pressure But Fails to Break Below Trend Line

The AUDUSD has pared yesterday’s advance as U.S. traders came back online today. With risk aversion regaining its footing, if we continue to see the U.S. dollar strengthen against the Aussie, and break below the rising trend line on the 15 minute chart, I would not rule out further downside risks. [Link]

Australian Dollar Under Pressure But Fails to Break Below Trend Line

The AUDUSD has pared yesterday’s advance as U.S. traders came back online today. With risk aversion regaining its footing today, if we continue to see the U.S. dollar strengthen against the Aussie, and break below the rising trend line on the 15 minute chart, I would not rule out further downside risks. [Link]

USD/CHF’s Threat of Parity Offers Potential Scalping Opportunity

The USD/CHF has been in a bearish trend on double dip concerns as the Swiss Franc has regained its safe haven status. Stronger than expected U.S. fundamentals has eased concerns, slowing downside momentum. However, we have seen volatility increase today as European banking concerns re-emerged which could decrease the attractiveness of the Franc as potential shelter. Therefore, we could see the pair stagnate as traders better assess the potential risks for lending institutions that are holding potentially toxic sovereign debt, making it a scalping target. [Link]

Japanese Yen Rallies on Risk Aversion, Euro Lags Behind

The Japanese Yen rallied to a fresh yearly high against the greenback on Tuesday and is the best performing currency amongst the majors, while the Euro pared the decline from the previous week and slipped to a low of 1.2736 as investors scaled back their appetite for risk. [Link]

Crude Correcting August Losses

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Bank Research Consensus Weekly 09.07.10

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published its latest Triennial Central Bank Survey of the FX market on Wednesday, which draws on data from 53 central banks for transactions in the month of April. The survey reveals that the market has continued to grow strongly, with a 20% increase in overall turnover since 2007 to a mind-boggling USD4,000bn – a day! This clearly illustrates that the FX market remains the largest and most liquid financial market. Kasper Kirkegaard & Sverre Holbek, Senior Analyst , Danske Bank [Link]

Euro Under Pressure on Banking Concerns

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Euro Decline is Impulsive

The EURUSD decline from 12920 is in 5 waves (impulsive), which suggests that the larger trend remains down. This leaves the rally from the low as a 3 wave affair (corrective). The euro is vulnerable. [Link]

Staying short GBPUSD, long USDJPY soon

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Jamie's Pick: 09/07

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Euro Decline is Impulsive

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Australian Dollar Support Begins at 9050

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British Pound Focus is on 14980

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Japanese Yen Focus Remains on 80

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New Zealand Dollar Looks Vulnerable

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Gold Closing in on All-Time High

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Canadian Dollar Breaks Short Term Channel

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Swiss Franc Marks Time

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Low Yielding Currencies Benefit From Risk Aversion

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Remain Short GBPUSD; Pending USDJPY

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EUR/CHF

The EUR/CHF continues to move down towards an all-time low. [Link]

Euro Under Pressure As Banking Concerns Re-emerge

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British Pound Cross Pick 09.07.10

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Economic Calendar

Two central bank meetings down this week with two more on the calendar. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Weighed By Risk Aversion

The Euro pared the advance from the previous week, with the exchange rate slipping to a low of 1.2736, and the major currencies could face increased volatility going into the North American trade as U.S. traders come back on-line following the holiday weekend. [Link]

German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Declines in July, Risk Aversion Regains its Footing

The euro has come back under pressure, and has broken below both the 10 and 20-day SMA’s. Meanwhile, German factory orders unexpectedly declined in July. [Link]

Risk Slammed Ahead of US Open But Not Sure Will Continue; Long EUR/JPY

Currencies have come back under pressure in Tuesday trade, with the Euro leading the declines on the back of news that some of the European banks may have under-reported on their exposures to sovereign debt and then accelerating on the shockingly bad German factory orders. [Link]

Long EUR/JPY and Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

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Factory Orders Contract Sharply in July

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Cities Compete for Private Equity Crown; China Weekly 09.07

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EURUSD: Remain Short as Risk Aversion Returns

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Dollar, Yen to Advance as Risk Aversion Grips Currency Markets

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen advanced as shares slid in Asian trade, boosting demand for the safety-linked currencies. Stock index futures hint more of the same is ahead in European trading hours. [Link]

TECH TALK 09.07

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Australia Holds Rates at 4.5 Percent as Expected

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 4.50 percent as expected. The Australian Dollar was little changed after the announcement with the outcome having been priced in well ahead of the release. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 09.07

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USD/CHF Classical 09.07

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USD/CAD Classical 09.07

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NZD/USD Classical 09.07

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GBP/USD Classical 09.07

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GBP/JPY Classical 09.07

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EUR/USD Classical 09.07

EUR/JPY Classical 09.07

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USD Graphic Rewind 09.07

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Risk Off on Conerns over European Banks and More Dovish RBA

Currencies have come back under pressure in early Tuesday trade, with the Euro initially leading the declines on the back of news that some of the European banks may have under-reported on their exposures to sovereign debt. [Link]

Regional Currencies Weakest Across the Board; Warns of More Risk Selling

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EUR/CHF Classical 09.07

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AUD/USD Classical 09.07

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Crude Oil Down in Holiday Trade, Gold Attempts to Resume its Rally

Will economic optimism from last week carry over into the coming holiday-shortened week? Regardless, the direction of markets will be extremely telling with regard to whether the latest move was merely an oversold bounce or the start of a new trend. [Link]

Dollar Little Moved Above Key Support as the Market Awaits the Return of US Speculators

The lack of activity from the dollar today shouldn’t surprise anyone. With US capital markets and banks closed for the Labor Day holiday, there was a natural dampener on volatility and any overzealous attempts to jump start a trend. Typically, we say this is due to a lack of volatility; but that is not technically true. [Link]

US Dollar at Key Support as Risky Assets Seek to Resolve Direction

The US Dollar is testing key support as crude oil prices hint a downturn is forthcoming while stocks test an important Fibonacci retracement barrier, pointing to a resolution in the risk on / risk off tug of war just around the corner. [Link]

Euro Uncertainty Dominates a Quiet Start to the Week as We Look for Trade Opportunities

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Jamie's Pick 09/06

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A Quiet Start to the Week Offers Time for Setup

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AUDNZD Channel Looks For Hawkish RBA to Remain Intact

The AUD/NZD remains confined to an upward trending channel as the Aussie continues to be the favorite of the two commodity dollars. Australia’s greater exposure to Chinese growth has raised its outlook for potential growth. The recent strength in Chinese PMI was evidence that the Asian giant continues to realize firm domestic growth despite the government takes steps to cool the economy before it overheats. The RBNZ has followed in the footsteps of the RBA when it comes to monetary policy as its domestic picture isn’t as bright, which has led to the Kiwi reversing its mid-year gains against its antipode counterpart. Concerns that the Australian policy makers could signal an end to their tightening at their upcoming rate decision has started to weigh on the high yielder. However, stronger than expected second quarter Australia growth furthers the case for relative Aussie strength. The AUD/NZD is now testing the lower bound of the current channel adding to the case for a reversal. [Link]

RBA, BoE and BoC Rate Decisions May Set Course for Medium Term Direction

Central banks have great insights into their domestic economies as well as the global environment. Therefore, with a slew of monetary authorities meeting this week we could see medium expectations shaped by their comments. Commodity driven economies have led the recovery and signs of continues strength in Canada and Australia could feed into prevailing optimism favoring high yielders at the detriment of safe haven currencies such as the dollar, yen and franc. However, continued pessimism from the U.K. and Japan-two of the six largest economies- could limit potential optimism. [Link]

Forex Strategy Outlook: Breakout Strategies Favored on Indecisive Currency Price Action

A drop in forex market volatility expectations suggests that currency moves may slow in the week ahead, limiting optimism on volatility-friendly Breakout and Momentum strategies. Yet a continued slide in the safe-haven US Dollar shows few signs of slowing amidst a major improvement in financial market risk sentiment. We are left in a somewhat difficult position in determining our strategy bias. On the one hand, recent price moves suggest that major currency pairs will continue their pronounced trends and large day-to-day swings. On the other, the drop in volatility expectations points to otherwise. We have little option but to leave our biases unchanged until further clarification. [Link]

Stopped out of EURUSD short

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Sterling at Risk with BoE Decison Ahead

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Take EURUSD Profits; Remain Short GBPUSD; Pending USDJPY

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Currency Markets to Face Increased Volatility During the North American Session Amid U.S. Labor Day Holiday

The Euro was directionless during the overnight trade against the U.S. dollar amid a light economic docket. Looking ahead, we may see a lackluster performance in the currency markets as many traders are offline in observance of the U.S. Labor Day holiday. [Link]

Limited Liquidity Keeps Trade Quiet With US Closed for Holiday

All is quiet in the markets thus far on Monday with currencies locked in some tight consolidation in Europe. [Link]

Stand Aside on Monday

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USDCAD: New Long Entry Sought

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US Dollar, Japanese Yen Sold as Risky Assets Rise in Thin Holiday Trade

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen declined as risk appetite carried over from Friday’s trade pushed shares higher in Asian hours, sapping demand for the safety-linked currencies. Stock index futures hint more of the same ahead. [Link]

Trading Ranges Expected to be Rather Tight with US Markets on Holiday

All is quiet in the markets thus far on Monday with currencies locked in some tight consolidation into the European open. [Link]

Forex Fundamental Trends Monitor 09.06.2010

Forex markets are seemingly poised to extend last week’s forceful recovery in stocks-correlated currencies but seasonal factors may complicate the sentiment landscape, opening the door for a return to risk aversion. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 09.06

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USD/CHF Classical 09.06

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USD/CAD Classical 09.06

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NZD/USD Classical 09.06

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GBP/USD Classical 09.06

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TECH TALK 09.06

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GBP/JPY Classical 09.06

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EUR/USD Classical 09.06

The market continues to correct out from the late August 1.2585 lows, with the latest gains now threatening a break back above some key short-term resistance by 1.2925. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 09.06

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USD Graphic Rewind 09.06

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Crude Oil Down in Holiday Trade, Gold Attempts to Resume its Rally

EUR/CHF Classical 09.06

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AUD/USD Classical 09.06

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Weekly Fundamental Forecast - 09.06.10

Dollar on the Verge of a Bearish Reversal as Support, Liquidity Dry Up Euro Forecast Turns Bullish on S&P 500 Rallies – Test of 1.30 Likely Japanese Yen: Currency Intervention Grows Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision British Pound May Rise With Stocks But Seasonal Factors, BOE Threaten Canadian Dollar Looks to BoC Rate Decision for Next Moves Australian Dollar May Gain Further on RBA Expectations, S&P Strength New Zealand Dollar Tracks Risk as Seasonal Forces Complicate Rebound Gold Continues to March Higher Despite Positive Speculative Lean [Link]

Gold Continues to March Higher Despite Positive Speculative Lean

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Dollar on the Verge of a Bearish Reversal as Support, Liquidity Dry Up

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British Pound May Rise With Stocks but Seasonal Factors, BOE Threaten

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Dollar Edges Lower as NFPs Solidify Investor Sentiment and Shake Out Remaining Volatility

Though liquidity was winding down quickly into the close of the week, we would nevertheless see a significant shift in the traditional market gauges for risk appetite Friday. With the help of a dubious nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, risk appetite would start climbing before the US exchanges came online. [Link]

New Zealand Dollar Tracks Risk as Seasonal Forces Complicate Rebound

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Oil Tumbles as Speculative Interest Drops, Gold Curbed by Quiet Confidence

Neither oil nor gold would benefit from the carry through of risk appetite trends through the week’s close. With speculative interests fully drained for the extended holiday weekend, will traders rouse enough momentum to carry critical breakouts next week? [Link]

Australian Dollar May Gain Further on RBA Expectations, S&P Strength

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Canadian Dollar Looks to BoC Rate Decision for Next Moves

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Japanese Yen: Currency Intervention Grows Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision

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Euro Forecast Turns Bullish on S&P 500 Rallies – Test of 1.30 Likely

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NFPs Offer a Last Gasp of Volatility Before Liquidity Drains

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FX Technical Weekly 09-03

The trend towards risk is back. Take advantage through the AUDUSD and EURJPY. [Link]

A Sudden Gasp of NFP Volatility before Liquidity Drains

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Forex Strategy Corner: Bollinger Bands Techniques for Trading

Bollinger Bands have long been one of the most popular technical indicators across financial markets, and many forex traders use them regularly in their day-to-day trading. The key question to ask of any forex analysis technique is nonetheless clear: how effective is the Bollinger Bands indicator as a forex strategy? This article will take a closer look at one key Bollinger Band trading strategy on several forex pairs and explores one way to improve its effectiveness. [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 09-03

Look to buy pullbacks in the Yen crosses next week. [Link]

Stopped out of EURUSD short

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British Pound Testing Channel Resistance

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Jamie's Pick: 09/03

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Crude Working Towards 7700

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Swiss Franc 10250 is Level to Watch

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Australian Dollar Short Term Trendline Resistance

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New Zealand Dollar Breaks from a Bullish Pattern

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Japanese Yen Channel is Key

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Euro Support Starts at 12780

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Gold Rolling Over…Finally?

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Canadian Dollar Tests Short Term Channel

USDCAD channel support comes into play at current price although I do expect the level to give way next week as the rally from 10105 is left in 3 waves. [Link]

Jamie's Post NFP Video

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U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Declines Less Than Economists Expectations, Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.6%

Nonfarm payrolls in the world’s largest economy tumbled 54,000 in August a fter falling a revised 54,000 the previous month amid economists’ expectations of -105,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent in July. In turn, the Japanese yen, and the U.S. dollar lost ground against all major currencies as sentiment shifted gears. Meanwhile, U.S. futures pushed higher subsequent to the report, and indeed, risk appetite maybe the main theme going into the North American trade. Market participants should caution entering a trade today as many traders are offline going into the holiday weekend. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Rally Against the U.S. Dollar Ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report

The Euro extended its three day advance against the U.S. dollar ahead of the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report from the world’s largest economy. Indeed, we may see whipsaw price action ahead of the report as the currency market looks for direction. Market participants should not rule out a less than usual reaction to the release as some traders are offline going into the holiday weekend. [Link]

Aussie/Cad Cross Surprisingly Stands Out on NFP Friday; Looking to Sell

There is not a lot to talk about ahead of the European open, with the markets locked in some tight consolidation over the past several hours and seemingly content on waiting for the big release later today in the form of US non-farm payrolls. [Link]

Aud/Cad Looking to Post Fresh 2010 High; Look to Fade

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USDCAD: Stay Long as Prices Test Channel Bottom

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Daily Sound Bites 09.03

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EURUSD: Upswing Deepens, Still Looks Corrective

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GBPUSD: Consolidation Continues at Fib Support

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Swiss Inflation Continues to Ease

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USDJPY: Wedge Setup Points to Gains Ahead

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USDCAD: Remain Long Targeting Push Above 1.07

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TECH TALK 09.03

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AUDUSD: Short Stopped Out as Bulls Reclaim 0.91

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NZDUSD: Fib Level Caps Range, Bias Still Bearish

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USD/JPY Classical 09.03

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USD/CHF Classical 09.03

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USD/CAD Classical 09.03

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NZD/USD Classical 09.03

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GBP/USD Classical 09.03

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GBP/JPY Classical 09.03

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EUR/USD Classical 09.03

Despite the latest bounce back above 1.2800, the structure sill remains bearish with the market below the 18Aug 1.2925 high. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 09.03

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EUR/CHF Classical 09.03

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AUD/USD Classical 09.03

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USD Graphic Rewind 09.03

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All Quiet Ahead of Highly Anticipated US Employment Report

Yen Intervention Unlikely as Capex Soars, US Jobs Report on Tap

Japanese Yen intervention looks unlikely after capital spending soared in the second quarter. A quiet European session looks likely, with all eyes on the US jobs report as traders size up the prospects for the global recovery. [Link]

Swedish Central Bank Very Upbeat in Monetary Policy Statement; SEK Bid

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Crude Oil Rises on GOM Explosion, Gold Unfazed by Equity Rally

All financial assets will look to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday for directional guidance. With prices already up significantly after a huge two-day rally, traders may opt to take profits regardless of what the figures show. [Link]

London Calling Sep 3

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Can NFPs Provide a Clear Bearing on Risk Appetite Where Volatility Alone Fails?

For more than a month now, those market-based benchmarks that so perfectly characterize investor sentiment have slowly depreciated. This hasn’t been an aggressive shift, more like a capitulation that shows the certainty of high correlation across different asset classes. [Link]

Dollar, Gold and Oil Hold Key Levels as Stocks Rise Ahead of US Jobs Data

The US Dollar, gold and crude oil positioning has remained unchanged despite continued gains on stock markets, reflecting lingering uncertainty in the risk sentiment landscape ahead of the upcoming US jobs report. [Link]

Dollar Retrenches into Congestion as a Questionable NFP Release and Holiday Weekend Approach

Trading conditions were relatively mixed between the US dollar and the many other speculative assets out there. The greenback would officially close Thursday’s session with a bearish performance on a trade-weighted basis; but the slide was especially modest. [Link]

Oil and Gold Advance in Tandem as Speculative Volatility Recedes Pre-NFP

It is a common phenomenon for the capital markets. With the approach of heavy event risk like US nonfarm payrolls, speculative liquidity sources will temper their turnover to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a fast moving market. [Link]

Jamie's Trading Video: 09/02

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NFPs Curbs Volatility, May Struggle to Inflate Activity Before Holiday Liqudity Drain

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Currency Markets Shift Focus to the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report for August

The spotlight this week will be placed on the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls report for the month of August. Economists are expecting the labor market in the world’s largest economy to plunge 103,000 after payrolls took a free fall of 131,000 in July. With waning fiscal stimulus likely to impede the recovery in the U.S. in conjunction with tight credit conditions, and an uncertain economic outlook, a disappointing NFP report should not be ruled out. In turn, figures less than expected may lead traders to seek safety, which will lead to gains in the greenback and validate further EUR/USD losses. Market participants should not rule out whipsaw price action ahead of the report or a less than usual reaction to the release as some traders are offline going into the holiday weekend. [Link]

Trading Styles

Student's Question I read all the time about "aggressive" in contrast to "conservative" traders. I simply have no idea what I should be! Could you maybe comment on contrasts between these two "types of traders". How should I behave? What brings more profit or what preconditions or situations should I look at to know if I should act aggressive or conservative? [Link]

The FX Market has now Entered the Pull of Friday NFPs

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EUR/USD: Trading the Change in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

The U.S. dollar could face increased selling pressures over the next 24 hours of trading as market participants anticipate the labor market to weaken for the third consecutive month in August, and the data is likely to reinforce a dour outlook for the world’s largest economy as private sector spending remains one of the leading drivers of growth. [Link]

US Dollar Forex Options Sentiment Points to Pullbacks

Sharp US Dollar declines have been met with similarly noteworthy shifts in FX Options market sentiment, thwarting calls for USD rallies through short-term trade. In past weeks we wrote plainly in favor of Dollar strength on the combination of overextended futures positioning and sharp correction in FX Options risk reversals. Yet more recently we have seen pullbacks in both and have little option but to shift our short-term bias. [Link]

Canadian Dollar May Appreciate Against USD

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Swiss Franc Likely to Strengthen against Dollar

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US Dollar Forecast Turns Bearish vs Euro, Japanese Yen

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Turns Bullish Against US Dollar GBPUSD – British Pound Bias Calls for Weakness USDJPY – Japanese Yen Forecast to Gain Further USDCHF – Swiss Franc Likely to Strengthen against Dollar USDCAD – Canadian Dollar May Appreciate Against USD GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast to decline Against Japanese Yen View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum . [Link]

Japanese Yen Forecast to Gain Further

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British Pound Bias Calls for Weakness

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Euro Forecast Turns Bullish Against US Dollar

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British Pound Forecast to decline Against Japanese Yen

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USDCAD Test of the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Ahead of the U.S. NFP Report May Set the Stage for an Intraday Trade

The USDCAD has pared yesterday’s decline and has found support at the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement on the April 21 st to May 25 th upswing ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls report. As price action has been range bound for the past couple of sessions, a potential long intraday trade may be in the horizon subsequent to the U.S. labor force report. [Link]

Crude Resitance Begins at 7700

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Gold 1270 in Danger

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Swiss Franc Continues Dominance

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Canadian Dollar Short Term Channels are Points of Reference

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Japanese Yen Remains Vulnerable in Near Term

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New Zealand Dollar Support Begins at 7100

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Australian Dollar Support Begins at 9000

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British Pound Decline May Extend Below 15000

The pattern of the decline from 16000 is not clear-so the decline is probably not complete. One possibility is a double zigzag. The 2 legs would be equal at 14980, which is defended by the July 12th low. [Link]

Euro Support at 12730

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Jamie's Pick: 09/02

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U.S. Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Advances in July

Pending home sales in the world’s largest economy rose 5.2 percent in July after falling 2.8 percent the month prior to exceed economists’ expectations of a 1.0 percent decline. Meanwhile, annualized pending home sales plunged 20.1 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. Despite the advance, there was little reaction in the currency markets as traders shift their focus to the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which will be released tomorrow at 12:30 GMT. As of late, economists are forecasting payrolls to drop 100K in August, while the unemployment rate is surveyed to rise to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent in July. [Link]

ECB Holds Interest Rate at 1.00%, Trichet Says Monetary Policy ‘Appropriate’

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British Pound Cross Pick 09.02.10

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SSI

This morning's chart of the USD/JPY includes the SSI data provided by DailyFX. [Link]

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY continues to print lower highs and lower lows. [Link]

Remain Short EURUSD, GBPUSD; Pending USDJPY

[Link]

U.S. Dollar Continues To Lose Ground, European Central Bank Holds Rate at 1.00%

The Euro showed little reaction to the European Central Bank interest rate decision as policy makers held the benchmark interest rate at 1.00% in September, but the slew of data scheduled for the U.S. trade is likely to stoke increased volatility in the exchange rate as investors weigh the outlook for future growth. [Link]

Record Breaking Exports Propel Recovery

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British Pound Under Pressure Amid IMF Debt Concerns, Weak Housing Data

During the overnight trade, the IMF warned that Portugal, Italy, and Greece are amongst the countries with the highest risk of unsustainable debt, while also adding that U.K.’s debt to GDP could rise to 90.6 percent in 2015. In turn, the GBPUSD pushed lower overnight, while euro traders shift focus to the ECB rate decision and subsequent comments by ECB President Trichet. [Link]

Dollar/Yen Very Close to Establishing Major Base; Looking to Buy

Price action over the past 24 hours has been a bit unusual in our opinion, with risk sentiment dramatically improving, currencies rallying sharply, and global equities racing higher on the back of a decent round of global data on Wednesday. [Link]

Buy USD/JPY Dips

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GBPUSD: Consolidation Persists at Fib Support

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Growth Data Impresses but SNB Likely to Remain on Hold

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TECH TALK 09.02

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USD Graphic Rewind 09.02

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USD/JPY Classical 09.02

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USD/CHF Classical 09.02

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USD/CAD Classical 09.02

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NZD/USD Classical 09.02

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GBP/USD Classical 09.02

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GBP/JPY Classical 09.02

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EUR/USD Classical 09.02

Despite the latest bounce back above 1.2800, the structure sill remains bearish with the market below the 18Aug 1.2925 high. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 09.02

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EUR/CHF Classical 09.02

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AUD/USD Classical 09.02

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Euro Pares Gains Ahead of ECB Rate Decision, Euro Zone GDP Report

The Euro inched lower in Asian trade and cues from risk sentiment pointing to further weakness, with a rate decision from the European Central Bank and the release of revised Euro Zone GDP figures likely to amount to non-events. [Link]

Riksbank Rate Decision in Focus; Expected to Raise 25 Basis Points to 0.75%

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Crude Oil Weighed by Inventories, Gold Stalls as Equity Markets Rally

Multi-decade highs in crude oil inventories kept a lid on oil prices, as the commodity failed to recapture the previous day’s losses despite surging equity markets. Gold is holding up well on insatiable investor demand. [Link]

Wednesday's Price Action Could Be Overstated; Proceed With Caution

Dollar Outlook Stalled by Aimless Risk Trends, Fed’s Concerns

It is always good to step back from the day-to-day changes in the markets to put price action into context. While this past week has seen a number of instances of volatility expansion for the US dollar, the currency has actually strayed little from a general state of congestion. [Link]

London Calling Sep 2

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Dollar Tumbles as Risk Trends Succumb to an Episode of Temporary Insanity that Fosters Optimism

After a month of chop and questionable conviction behind investor confidence, Wednesday’s price action shouldn’t surprise too many active traders. General congestion with a restrained risk-aversion bias left the capital markets exposed to a sudden revival in confidence; and that is exactly what we say for the day. The direction of the move isn’t so startling as the fact that correlations tightened across the various asset classes. [Link]

Crude Oil Inventories Watch: Week Ending 08/27/2010

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Australian Trade Surplus Shrinks as Coal, Iron Ore Lead Exports Lower

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Forex Strategy Corner: Bollinger Bands Techniques for Trading

US Dollar Holds Range as Stocks Race Higher, Challenging Bulls' Conviction

The US Dollar has kept to its recent range while gold and oil prices have also avoided direction-changing breakouts despite a sharp upswing in global stock prices, challenging the conviction behind the surge in risk appetite. [Link]

Bernanke Out of Bullets, But Not Bombs

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A Surge in Market Optimism Sweeps Oil Higher, Tempers Gold's Advance

There were a number of macroeconomic developments that would make it into the market fold Wednesday; but when we boil price action for commodities and other assets down, it was clear all roads led back to risk appetite trends. [Link]

Bernanke Out of Bullets, But Not Bombs

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A Sudden Burst of Optimism that will Come Back Down to Earth

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Jamie's Trading Video: 09/01

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Stopped out of EURUSD short

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U.S. Equities Surge By Most Since July on Manufacturing Data

U.S. stocks posted their largest gain in nearly two months following strong economic reports out of China and a better-than-expected ISM manufacturing reading for the month of August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 254 points on the day to 10269, while the S&P 500 added 30 points to 1080. [Link]

Exuberance Returns to Equities and EURUSD but this Run is Likely to Collapse

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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 09-01

The Euro crosses are mixed but there are bullish opportunities in the Yen crosses. [Link]

Entries and Exits Based on Moving Averages

Student’s Question: Should I believe the candles? Waiting for a crossover of the 20/50 SMAs to come down would has cost dearly … waiting for the last SMA crossover would have cost several hundreds of pips. Afterwards, we can say that it was not too late to jump in; staying in and sliding a stop along with 50 day SMA would have been an extremely good deal anyway. However, in a short term down trend waiting for the ‘too much’ lagging SMA could have caused … well, frustration? [Link]

EURUSD Remains Capped by the 20-Day SMA Ahead of the ECB Rate Decision

The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep their key overnight lending rate at 1.00 percent in September, which will mark the sixteen straight month that interest rates were at the record low. Traders will keep a close eye on comments subsequent to the rate decision, and any dovish comments from policy makers will likely weigh on the euro, and validate my short position from 1.3100. [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the Change in U.S. Pending Home Sales

The ongoing weakness in the U.S. housing market could spark a larger-than-anticipated drop in pending sales of existing homes, and the data is likely to spark increased volatility the exchange rate as investors as investors weigh the prospects for future growth. [Link]

A Sudden Burst of Optimism that will Come Back Down to Earth

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EUR/USD May Become Scalping Target Ahead of ECB Decision.

The USD/JPY rallied following a robust US Manufacturing report but the pairs reaction to broader risk appetite was subdue compared to other risk sensitive pairs. Price action has begun to consolidate and could continue with major event risk ahead in the form of US Non-Farm payrolls. The labor report will have significant market moving potential, which should limit conviction before the release. Additionally, the low interest rate expectations for the dollar have begun to weigh on the reserve currency, weakening the influence of risk trends on the pair. [Link]

British Pound Pivot is 15600

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New Zealand Dollar Holding Long Term Support line

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Crude Resistance Consolidating Recent Losses

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Gold Treads Water

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Canadian Dollar Range is Holding

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Swiss Franc 2009 Price Extreme in Jeopardy

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Japanese Yen Divergence Warns of a Turn

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Australian Dollar Surges; Important Low in Place?

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Remain Short EURUSD and Long AUDNZD; Short GBPUSD; Pending USDJPY

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Jamie's Pick: 09/01

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U.S. Manufacturing Tops Expectations in August

Manufacturing in the world’s largest economy unexpectedly expanded at a faster pace in August, with the ISM index advancing to 56.3 from 55.5 in the previous month, while the gauge for prices paid increased to a three-month high of 61.5 from 57.5 during the same period. In turn, the USDJPY pushed higher subsequent to the report, and now looks poised to test the upper bounds of the descending channel. [Link]

Euro Forming Bullish Base

Today’s EURUSD advance suggests that an important low is in place at 12590. The rally may be the beginning of a C wave that will exceed 13340. The next few days should present a long opportunity. 12730 is support. [Link]

Japanese Yen Divergence Warns of a Turn

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Australian Dollar Surges; Important Low in Place?

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New Zealand Dollar Holding Long Term Support line

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Swiss Franc 2009 Price Extreme in Jeopardy

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Gold Treads Water

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Canadian Dollar Range is Holding

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Crude Resistance Consolidating Recent Losses

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British Pound Cross Pick 09.01.10

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U.S. Dollar Weighed By Risk Appetite

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USD/CHF

The CHF has been extremely strong as of late as this daily chart of the USD/CHF confirms. [Link]

Gold

Gold continues to move up as this daily chart shows. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Rally Ahead of U.S. Session on Risk Appetite

A rebound in market sentiment pushed the euro higher on Wednesday, with the exchange rate advancing to a high of 1.2812 during the overnight trade, but the event risks scheduled for the U.S. session could weigh on risk appetite as the economic docket is expected to reinforce a weakening outlook for future growth. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 09.01

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Risk Appetite Regains Its Footing as the U.S. Dollar Tumbles Against All Major Currencies Overnight

Retail sales in Europe’s largest economy unexpectedly fell 0.3 percent in July from the month prior, while the annualized rate disappointed, rising a mere 0.8 percent after climbing 4.7 percent the previous month. [Link]

Sentiment Improves But Yen Still Well Bid Against the Buck

September is finally upon us and it will certainly be interesting to see if there are any changes in the overall construct of the markets, with many traders now filtering back to their desks following their summer holidays. [Link]

Looking to Buy USD/JPY Dips

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USDJPY: Long Trade Favored But Entry Likely Distant

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TECH TALK 09.01

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UK PMI Hits Nine-Month Low

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Dollar, Yen Fall as Risky Assets Rebound, US ISM Looms Ahead

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen sank as risk appetite firmed on Australian GDP and Chinese PMI figures in Asian trade. Stock index futures point to more of the same in Europe, but the US ISM report may derail risk’s advance. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 09.01

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USD/CHF Classical 09.01

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USD/CAD Classical 09.01

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NZD/USD Classical 09.01

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GBP/USD Classical 09.01

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GBP/JPY Classical 09.01

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EUR/USD Classical 09.01

The latest bounce out from 1.2585 is classed as corrective and the market looks to be in the process of seeking out the next lower top below 1.2925 ahead of a fresh drop towards 1.2500 further down. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 09.01

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EUR/CHF Classical 09.01

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AUD/USD Classical 09.01

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Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Could Undermine SEK and DKK

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USD Graphic Rewind 09.01

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Solid Australian and Chinese Data Provides Boost in Asian Trade

Crude Oil Looks to Inventories and Economic Data, Gold Buoyed by Investor Appetite

Will U.S. oil inventories maintain their multi-decade highs when the DOE inventory is released Wednesday morning? Will gold make a run for the all-time highs? [Link]

Australian Dollar Soars as Q2 GDP, Chinese PMI Top Expectations

The Australian Dollar surged against all of its major counterparts after second-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures showed the economy added 1.2 percent in the three months through June, topping economists’ forecasts calling for a 0.9 percent increase and marking the largest increase in three years. [Link]

Dollar Volatility Curbed by FOMC Meeting Minutes, Tempered Risk Appetite Trends

If we were going by the promise of event risk alone, we would have been led to believe that the US dollar was guaranteed volatility Tuesday. However, as we have seen time and again over the past few months, economic data and exogenous developments are only as effective in moving the market so far as they can stimulus interest in dominant fundamental drivers. [Link]

London Calling Sep 1

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Oil Plunges and Gold Rallies as Confidence in the Future Deteriorates

Volatility was a commonality in price action across the commodities market Tuesday. A busy macroeconomic docket would help drive crude to its biggest daily loss in three months and push gold back into its bull trend with two months highs. [Link]

Heavy Event Risk Doesn't Gaurantee Volatility but it Can Help Setup Trades

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Jamie's Trading Plan: 08/31

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Using Stochastics

Student’s Question: In the Range Trading Webinar Slow Stochastics was mentioned. I am still not clear on it. Thanks. [Link]

Yen Close to a Bullish Extreme

The Yen COT index inched higher to 92. A 100 reading would warn of a bullish extreme. [Link]

U.S. Equities Mixed as Fed Minutes Signal No Large-Scale Asset Purchases

U.S. stocks were mixed following yesterday’s slump, as today’s Fed minutes showed no plans for large-scale asset purchases in the near-term. [Link]

FOMC Minutes Fail to Generate a Dollar Trend, GBPAUD Set for Break Ahead of GDP

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EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Report

As the economic rebound in the U.S. cools, a slower pace of expansion in manufacturing could drag on the greenback as policy makers expect to see a moderate recovery going forward given the ongoing weakness within the private sector. [Link]

EUR/USD Range Should Hold Ahead Of ECB Decision

The EUR/USD has given back some of its earlier gains but remains positive for the day and on track to test the upper bound of the current range. Support for the single currency could be due to a brighter outlook for yields on the back of ECB President Trichet’s comments at the Jackson Hole Conference, where he called for an end of stimulus efforts from governments. [Link]

Swiss Franc Focus Remains on 10130

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Gold Stubbornly Higher

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Swiss Franc Focus Remains on 10130

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Japanese Yen Trend Defined by Channel

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Australian Dollar 8680 is Potential Support

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British Pound 15250 is Potential Support

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Canadian Dollar 10670 Proving Significant

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Crude Resistance at 7520 and 7700

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Japanese Yen Trend Defined by Channel

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New Zealand Dollar Focus Remains on 6800

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Australian Dollar 8680 is Potential Support

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Jamie's Pick: 08/31

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Swiss Franc Benefits From Safe-Haven Flows, New Zealand Dollar Falters

The Swiss franc rallied against all of its major counterparts and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Tuesday, while the New Zealand dollar extended the decline from earlier this week following the shift in market sentiment. [Link]

EUR/USD May Become Scalping Target Ahead of ECB Decision.

The EUR/USD is surprisingly finding support on a day where the general theme is risk aversion and European fundamentals improved a dovish case. Indeed, the EZ-CPI estimate slipped to 1.6% from 1.7% as expected, with the German unemployment change printing at -17K, missing expectations of -20K. The support could be attributed to the hawkish comments from ECB president Trichet at the Jackson Hole Conference, where he spoke against additional stimulus and encouraged countries to begin “absorbing liquidity”. Therefore, with the ECB rate decision ahead on Thursday we could start to see the pair consolidate as we approach the event risk. Additionally, converging support and resistance levels has the pair range bound increasing its attractiveness as a scalping target. [Link]

Japanese Yen Trend Defined by Channel

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Canadian Dollar 10670 Proving Significant

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Gold Stubbornly Higher

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Swiss Franc Focus Remains on 10130

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Euro 12500 is Potential Support

Since price has failed to accelerate in a timely manner (which one would expect if the decline were a 3rd wave), I am leaning towards the idea that the decline from 13340 is corrective and will be exceeded. 12490 is support in the event of a drop to a new low. [Link]

Crude Resistance at 7520 and 7700

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Australian Dollar 8680 is Potential Support

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New Zealand Dollar Focus Remains on 6800

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Remain Short EURUSD and Long AUDNZD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

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New Zealand Dollar Cross Pick 08.31.10

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EUR/JPY

The EUR continues to weaken while the JPY is being accumulated by traders seeking relative safety. [Link]

Stay short EURUSD, Sell GBPUSD Rallies

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GBP/CHF

The GBP showed real weakness last night based on some disappointing economic releases. [Link]

Euro Finds Support on Potential for Hawkish Trichet

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Eurozone Unemployment Remains at a 12 Year High, Traders Shift Focus to U.S. consumer confidence, FOMC Minutes

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Daily Sound Bites 08.31

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Canadian GDP Advances Less Than Expected in the Second Quarter

Economic activity in Canada rose 0.2 percent in June after rising 0.1 percent the month prior, while the second quarter annualized gross domestic product advanced 2.0 percent amid economists’ forecasts of 2.5 percent. Indeed, the USDCAD pushed higher subsequent to the release of the report; however, we will likely see increased volatility during the North American trade as market participants shift their focus to the U.S. consumer confidence report and the FOMC minutes. [Link]

Euro-Zone Unemployment Remains at a 12 Year High, U.K. Total Net Lending Disappoints

The British pound has extended its decline against the greenback, and now looks poised to make a clear break below the 50-day moving average, while the EURUSD remains capped by 1.2800. EUR traders will now shift their focus to the ECB rate decision which will be released later this week. [Link]

Euro Holds Steady Ahead of FOMC Minutes, British Pound Under Pressure

The Euro maintained a narrow range throughout the overnight trade, with price action holding below the 100-Day SMA at 1.2711, but the single-currency could face increased volatility later on today as the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its policy meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT. [Link]

Looking to Buy EUR/CHF

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Euro/Swiss Buy Recommendation Issued for Tuesday Trading Session

It is the final day of trade for the month and so far things have been in risk off mode with the Yen and Swissie leading the way as safe-haven flows dominate. [Link]

Unemployment Remains at 12-Year High; Inflation Eases

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Bumper Second-Quarter Keeps Unemployment at Bay

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TECH TALK 08.31

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EURUSD: Remain Short as Bears Return

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USD/CHF Classical 08.31

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USD/CAD Classical 08.31

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NZD/USD Classical 08.31

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GBP/USD Classical 08.31

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.31

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EUR/USD Classical 08.31

EUR/JPY Classical 08.31

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.31

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AUD/USD Classical 08.31

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Forex Fundamental Trends Monitor 08.31.2010

Currency markets remain anchored to risk sentiment, with all eyes on the US economic calendar and especially Friday’s employment report amid increasing uncertainty about the continuity of the global economic recovery . [Link]

Krona Sees Cross Related Interest Following Upbeat Nordea Outlook

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Yen and Swissie Remain Well Bid; Euro/Swiss Drops to Another Record Low

It is the final day of trade for the month and so far things have been in risk off mode with the Yen and Swissie leading the way as safe-haven flows dominate. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 08.31

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.31

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Euro Selling May Resume as German Jobs Data Underscores ECB Paralysis

Euro selling may resume in European trading hours after the single currency paused to consolidate in the overnight session as robust German jobs data highlight the economic disparity and likely monetary policy paralysis in the Euro Zone. [Link]

Crude Oil Follows Equities Lower, Gold is Calm Before the Storm

Despite mixed economic data on Monday, crude oil and equities both fell, suggesting that the bearish bias remains intact. With markets at critical technical levels and a flurry of economic data still expected, the week promises to be anything but dull. [Link]

London Calling Aug 31

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Australian Retail Sales, Building Permits Fail to Boost Rates Outlook

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Dollar Advances for the First Time in Four Days as Speculative Uncertainty Crowds Out Positive Data

Following a run of three consecutive daily declines against its benchmark euro counterpart through Friday, the US dollar snapped is losing streak with a steady and encouraging rally. Gauging the quality of the currency’s performance, it is worth noting that it was the biggest positive move for the greenback since the 20 th and the buying pressure was surprisingly consistent throughout the day. [Link]

Japanese Industrial Production Outperforms But Outlook Still Gloomy

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Crude Oil Positioning May Signal Risk Aversion, Point to US Dollar Gains

Financial markets remain stuck at familiar technical barriers but crude oil positioning points to a bearish turn ahead. Should this extend to the spectrum of risky assets, a US Dollar advance is likely to follow. [Link]

Oil Tumbles while Gold Holds as Risk Aversion Lacks a Fundamental Stabilizer

Positive growth data from the US and sentiment readings from the Eurozone doesn’t offset underlying fears of economic activity and financial health going forward, leaving crude to correct its strong upswing and gold to stabilize. [Link]

FXbootcamp European Outlook 08/31/2010

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Heavy US Event Risk, China Financial Stress and BoJ Stimulus Expansion Bolsters Risk Aversion

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Euro’s Prospects Could Brighten If ECB Raises Yield Expectations

The EUR/USD was battered on the day as a weak attempt from the BoJ to stem Yen strength saw stronger conviction in support for safe haven currencies. The dollar, franc and yen would rebound against the single currency after initial weakness to start the week. [Link]

"Expanding" a Chart

Student's Question: When plotting the lines on a daily chart, how far should I zoom in. Approximately how many candles should I go off of? [Link]

EURUSD Halts 3-Day Advance Ahead of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Report

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Can a New Trading Week Finally Deliver Trends with Top Event Risk?

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USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian 2Q GDP Report

As economic activity in Canada is expected to expand for the fourth consecutive quarter, the 2Q GDP report could lead the USD/CAD to retrace the advance from earlier this month as investors expect the central bank to normalize monetary policy further in September. [Link]

EUR/USD Comes into Focus with ECB Rate Decision and NFP’s on Tap

The EUR/USD will come into focus this week with an ECB rate decision and the U.S. Non-farm payroll report on tap. A hawkish ECB President Trichet and a rise in U.S. unemployment could be the catalyst for a bullish rally in the pair. [Link]

Bank Research Consensus Weekly 08.30.10

Yes, the global economy is slowing, but much less sharply than the negative market sentiment would suggest. Global sentiment appears to be largely driven by the sharp deceleration in US GDP growth from 5% in 4Q09 to what now looks like barely more than 1% saar in 2Q10 (2Q GDP revisions are due this Friday, and our team looks for +1.3%). Manoj Pradhan & Joachim Fels , Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley [Link]

AUD/USD Consolidation Offers Scalping Opportunity

The AUD/USD has started to consolidate following a failed test of resistance at the 20-Day SMA at 0.9003. Broader sentiment appears directionless as traders try and decide if the recent flight to safety is overdone or there are legitimate concerns that may warrant additional pessimism. The high yielder is being punished as traders are erring on the side of caution as they formulate their assessment. We may not see true conviction before Friday’s Non-farm payroll report which could make the com-dollar a scalping target. [Link]

GBPJPY Failure to Break Above 20-day SMA May Validate Futher Losses

The GBPJPY has pared Friday’s advance following the Bank of Japan’s decision to offer an additional 10 trillion yen in six month loans. Though we do not rule out the central bank intervening in the FX markets, the yen may continue is intraday southern journey to test 130.45 over the next 24 hours. [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the Change in German Unemployment

Germany’s labor market is expected to improve for the fourteenth month in August as businesses increase production and employment, and the data could lead the EUR/USD to retrace the decline from earlier this month as the outlook for future growth improves. [Link]

Stay short EURUSD, Keep Stop Intact

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EUR/CHF

The EUR/CHF sits just 50 pips above an all-time low. [Link]

EUR/USD Back Under Pressure Despite Euro-Zone Economic Confidence Rising to a Two Year High

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Remain Short EURUSD and Long AUDNZD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

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Economic Calendar

This week’s Economic Calendar is full with scheduled events that could lead to increased volatility. [Link]

GBPUSD Finds Trend Line Resistance Creating Short Opportunity

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Forex Strategy Outlook: Elevated Volatility Expectations point to Breakouts

Choppy price action out of key forex pairs has made it difficult to establish clear strategy biases through recent trade. The Euro/US Dollar pair has in particular stuck to a narrow 150-point range through the past several weeks of trading, and our earlier calls for a continued EURUSD downtrend have not come to bear. Forex options markets volatility expectations nonetheless remain elevated and point to noteworthy price swings. As such, we will maintain a bias towards volatility-friendly systems unless implied volatility levels drop noticeably in the weeks ahead. [Link]

New Zealand Dollar Cross Pick 08.30.10

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Daily Sound Bites 08.30

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Euro Halts Three-Day Advance, British Pound Pares Friday’s Decline

The Euro pared the overnight advance and slipped to a low of 1.2696 ahead of the North American trade, with price action holding below the 50-Day SMA at 1.2773, and the single-currency may continue to trend lower throughout the day as policy makers maintain a cautious outlook for the region. [Link]

Eurozone Economic Confidence Rises to the Highest Level Since March 2008

Economic confidence in the 16 member euro area rose to its highest level since March 2008 for the month of August as figures rose to 101.8 from 101.1 the month prior. [Link]

Looking to Buy USD/JPY Dips

[Link]

Yen is the Only Source of Real Volatility in Otherwise Quiet Holiday Trade

The news of an emergency Yen meeting in Japan on Monday was enough to get markets moving at the start of Asian trade with a risk on approach taken on the expectation that the Bank of Japan would introduce new measures to stimulate the economy and curb the strength in the local currency. [Link]

European Confidence Data Mixed; Economic Confidence Hits Two Year High

[Link]

USDCAD: Remain Long Amid Correction

[Link]

Taking a Step Back; China Weekly 08.30

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TECH TALK 08.30

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USD/JPY Classical 08.30

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USD/CHF Classical 08.30

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USD/CAD Classical 08.30

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NZD/USD Classical 08.30

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GBP/USD Classical 08.30

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.30

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EUR/USD Classical 08.30

The latest bounce out from 1.2585 is classed as corrective and the market looks to be in the process of seeking out the next lower top below 1.2925 ahead of a fresh drop below 1.2585 and towards 1.2480 further down. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.30

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.30

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AUD/USD Classical 08.30

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.30

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Norwegian Krone Weakest Currency Across the Board Over Past Month

[Link]

Dollar, Yen Recover as Bank of Japan Emergency Meeting Disappoints

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen recovered from early losses on fading risk appetite after the Bank of Japan failed to impress expectant markets with a lackluster outcome to an “emergency” monetary policy meeting. [Link]

Crude Oil Flat Ahead of Plethora of Data, Gold Slow but Steady

Crude oil will attempt to build upon last week’s three-day rally, but a plethora of economic data will pose an obstacle for the commodity. Gold faces an obstacle of its own in the form of overbought conditions. [Link]

Emergency Bank of Japan Meeting Fails to Disuade Yen Bulls

Australian Company Profits Soar Most in 9 Years, Home Sales Fall on Rates

[Link]

Bank of Japan Expands Lending Program to ¥30T at Special Meeting

[Link]

New Zealand Trade Balance Shows First Deficit in Seven Months

[Link]

Weekly Trading Forecast - 08.30.10

US Dollar Direction Could Be Decided on Nonfarm Payrolls Report Euro’s Attempt at a Recovery Rides on the Dollar, Investor Confidence Japanese Yen at the Crossroads as the BoJ Discusses Intervention British Pound Looks To Manufacturing Data For Support Canadian Dollar Has Little to Look Forward to in GDP Release Australian Dollar Outlook Weighed By Interest Rate Expectations New Zealand Dollar at Clear Risk Ahead of US Labor Data Gold May Extend Slow Ascent as Market Uncertainty Prevails [Link]

Canadian Dollar Has Little to Look Forward to in GDP Release

[Link]

Gold May Extend Slow Ascent as Market Uncertainty Prevails

[Link]

US Dollar Pares Gains but Rally Set to Resume

EURUSD: Remain Short Amid Retracement GBPUSD: Short Position Sought on Rebound USDJPY: Long-Term Bias Remains Bullish USDCAD: Remain Long as Rally Stalls AUDUSD: Selloff Pauses, Bias Still Bearish NZDUSD: Sellers to Return After Correction [Link]

Euro’s Attempt at a Recovery Rides on the Dollar, Investor Confidence

[Link]

Dollar Weathers GDP and Bernanke Commentary, Faces Heavy Event Risk and Speculation Next Week

A third consecutive daily loss would lead the greenback to its worst performance since the long series of declines through August 2 nd . However, for context, this week’s disappointing performance more closely resembles a shift to congestion while the previous period of losses was near the exhaustion point of a two-month bear trend. [Link]

No Catastrophe after GDP and Bernanke Speech Bolsters Crude, Stalls Gold

There was significant risk potential built into the possible market reactions to the US GDP revision and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s commentary at the Jackson Hole Symposium. However, neither event would encourage major waves in the speculative markets, leading risk sensitive assets like crude to rally and safe havens like gold to stall. [Link]

New Zealand Dollar at Clear Risk Ahead of US Labor Data

[Link]

Australian Dollar Outlook Weighed By Interest Rate Expectations

[Link]

Japanese Yen at the Crossroads as the BoJ Discusses Intervention

[Link]

British Pound Looks To Manufacturing Data For Support

[Link]

US Dollar Direction Could Be Decided on Nonfarm Payrolls Report

[Link]

GDP and Bernanke Disrupt Risk Appetite but New Trends are Left to Next Week's Heavy Event Risk

[Link]

A Build Up and Let Down Precludes New Trades at Weeks End

[Link]

EUR/GBP Channel Looks to Yield Expectations

The Euro and British Pound have benefitted from a return of risk appetite where both currencies have made gains against their safe haven counterparts. However, the single currency has outshined the sterling as it maintains a stronger relationship with risk and is also benefitting from rising yield expectations. [Link]

EUR/GBP Channel Offers Ideal Scalping Environment

The EUR/GBP has been in a short-term ascending channel as risk appetite has slowly crept back into the market which tends to favor the single currency as it holds a higher correlation. Dour comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at the Jackson Hole Conference sparked a brief flight to safety but not enough to break the pair from its current formation. [Link]

UK, US 2Q Preliminary GDP Reports Spark Volatility in Currency Market

[Link]

UK, US 2Q Preliminary GDP Reports Spark Volatility in Currency Market

[Link]

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Revised Down For August

[Link]

Bernanke Says FOMC is Prepared to Provide Further Accomodation if Needed

Economic activity in the world’ largest economy rose 1.6 percent in the second quarter amid economists forecast of 1.8 percent. There was a muted reaction to the report as traders awaited the U. of Michigan confidence report and comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Indeed, the final confidence reading came in at 68.9, but was lower from the previous reading of 69.6, while Bernanke soon after said that the FOMC is prepared to provide more accommodation if needed. In turn, the EURUSD tumbled immediately after the dour comments from Mr. Bernanke as the greenback benefited from a flight to safety. [Link]

New Zealand Dollar Finds Support But Downside Risks Remain

[Link]

Remain Short EURUSD and Long AUDNZD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

[Link]

British Pound Pares Advance as U.K. Investments Falter, Euro Holds Steady Ahead Of U.S. 2Q GDP

The British Pound fell back from a high of 1.5544 during the European trade as the economic docket reinforced a weakened outlook for future growth, but the GBP/USD appears to have found intraday support ahead of the 200-Day SMA (1.5456) as price action holds above 1.5500. [Link]

U.K. GDP for the Second Quarter Revised Higher, Business Investment Declines

Economic activity in the U.K. expanded 1.2 percent in the second quarter from the previous reading of 1.1 percent. Meanwhile, the annualized rate was also revised higher, climbing to 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent. [Link]

Looking to Sell Euro Rallies

[Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.27

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Month End Flows and Official Speak Encourages Volatility in Friday Trade

Things could certainly heat up in the final sessions of trade for the week, with the market having consolidated over the past few days and now seemingly ready for some form of a breakout on the last trading day of the month. [Link]

UK GDP Print Sails Past Expectations

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TECH TALK 08.27

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USD/JPY Classical 08.27

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USD/CHF Classical 08.27

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USD/CAD Classical 08.27

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NZD/USD Classical 08.27

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GBP/USD Classical 08.27

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.27

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EUR/USD Classical 08.27

Setbacks have stalled out for now by 1.2585, ahead of the latest minor bounce. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.27

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.27

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AUD/USD Classical 08.27

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Risk Aversion Tempers after EURUSD Crosses 1.27 and the Dow 10,000 as US GDP and Policy Come into Focus

The necessary fundamental ingredients are in place for a market-wide deleveraging of risky positions; and yet the bear move in capital markets and bid for the safe haven US dollar have dried up this past week. This comes as something of a surprise given the high-level event risk that has crossed the wires over the period that would theoretically support the dominant bias. [Link]

End of Month Price Action Could be Quite Volatile; PM Kan and Fed Chair Bernanke in the Spotlight

USDCAD: Stay Long as Advance Pauses

[Link]

Crude Oil Awaits U.S. GDP Data, Gold Pauses As Resistance Mounts

All eyes are on the second quarter U.S. GDP report set to be released on Friday. Market participants will weigh the probability that the world’s largest economy is set to enter a second recession. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 08.27

[Link]

Currency Markets to Look Past European Data, Focus on Bernanke and US GDP

Currency markets are likely to look past European event risk as traders focus on tomorrow’s potentially sentiment-defining US Gross Domestic Product figures and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at a central banker summit. [Link]

NZDUSD: Sellers to Return After Correction

[Link]

AUDUSD: Selloff Pauses, Bias Still Bearish

[Link]

USDCAD: Remain Long as Rally Stalls

[Link]

USDJPY: Long-Term Bias Remains Bullish

[Link]

GBPUSD: Short Position Sought on Rebound

[Link]

EURUSD: Remain Short Amid Retracement

[Link]

Dollar Traders Will have to Determine Currency’s Safe Haven Role with Friday’s GDP Revisions, Bernanke Commentary

The economic docket was relatively light for the US dollar; but that wouldn’t prevent the currency from drifting off its fundamental mooring. The favored reserve fiat would put in for its second consecutive decline. Looking at the trade-weighted Dollar Index, the current pattern for price action looks very similar to the development from last week. [Link]

London Calling Aug 27

[Link]

Financial Markets Stall at Key Technical Barriers Ahead of US GDP Report

The US Dollar, crude oil, gold, and an index of global stock performance have stalled at key technical barriers as traders wait to get their bearings on risk sentiment with Friday’s release of second-quarter US GDP figures. [Link]

Japanese Deflation Deepens, Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls

[Link]

Forex Strategy Corner: Using Candlestick Formations in Trading

Some of the most popular trading strategies in forex markets involve the use of Japanese Candlestick charts. Given a specific pattern in candlestick formations, traders look to buy and sell currencies in anticipation of reversal or continuations in price. Yet testing the profitability of such concepts is easier said than done. We will attempt to quantitatively identify specific candlestick patterns and view historical performance of trading on said candlestick signals. [Link]

The Inhale before the Fundamental Storm is a Time for Conviction

[Link]

Market Correlations Slacken and the Dollar Pulls Back as Heavy Event Risk Approaches

[Link]

Fibonacci Usage

Student's Question: What is the purpose of the Fibonacci Tool and how do you use it? Thanks. [Link]

Pound Support Could Falter with Stocks at Critical Support Levels

The GBP/USD built upon yesterday’s gains as domestic fundamentals and a return of risk appetite provided support. [Link]

USDJPY Failure To Make a Clear Break Above the Upper Bounds of the Descending Channel May Validate Further Downside Risks

The USDJPY may face increased volatility over the next twenty four hours as traders await Japan’s jobless rate and inflation reports, in addition to U.S. GDP and consumer confidence releases. [Link]

New Zealand Dollar Tests 200-Day SMA, Japanese Yen Lags Behind

The New Zealand pared the decline from earlier this week and rallied to a high of 0.7090 following the rebound in market sentiment, while the Japanese Yen weakened across the board and is the worst performing currency against the greenback Thursday. [Link]

NZD/USD’s Test of Support is Generating Scalping Opportunity

A dismal U.S. existing home sales report sparked across the board anti-dollar sentiment increasing broader volatility. The greenback had been the beneficiary of overnight risk aversion which had put pressure on the high yielding NZD/USD. However, compared to other dollar crosses the price action has been subdued leaving the pair within its recent range. The New Zealand economy continues to benefit from emerging market demand which has economist expecting the RBNZ to raise rates at their next policy meeting which remains a supportive factor for the pair. However, dimming global growth is limiting bullish potential, keeping the pair directionless and a scalping target. [Link]

Stay short EURUSD, Keep Stop Intact

[Link]

British Pound Bias Calls for Strength

[Link]

Euro Forecast Modestly Bullish Against USD

[Link]

Swiss Franc Likely to Strengthen against Dollar

[Link]

Japanese Yen Forecast to Gain Further

[Link]

Canadian Dollar May Fall Against US Dollar

[Link]

British Pound Forecast to decline Against Japanese Yen

[Link]

US Dollar May See Further Declines Before Strength

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Modestly Bullish Against USD GBPUSD – British Pound Bias Calls for Strength USDJPY – Japanese Yen Forecast to Gain Further USDCHF – Swiss Franc Likely to Strengthen against Dollar USDCAD – Canadian Dollar May Fall Against US Dollar GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast to decline Against Japanese Yen View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum . [Link]

U.S. Dollar Loses Ground on Risk Appetite

[Link]

Remain Short EURUSD and Long AUDNZD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

[Link]

Sterling Finds Support On Return of Risk Appetite

[Link]

Rebound in Risk Sentiment Weighs on U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen

A rebound in risk sentiment pushed the euro higher for the second day, with the exchange rate advancing to a high of 1.2745 during the overnight trade, but the lack of momentum to retrace the decline from the previous week is likely to keep the EUR/USD within a narrow range throughout the day as price action continues to hold below the 50-Day SMA at 1.2757. [Link]

EUR/USD Extends Wednesday’s Advance as the Euro-Zone's M3 Money Supply Advances in July; Price Action Remains Capped by 50-Day SMA

M3 money supply in the 16 member euro area advanced an annualized 0.2 percent in July after climbing 0.2 percent the previous month, while the three month average added a mere 0.1 percent, the European Central Bank in Frankfurt said today. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.26

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Looking to Buy EURCHF on Dips

[Link]

Greenback Should be Well Bid Across the Board on Any Intraday Dips

Price action in Wednesday trade was certainly very interesting, with the session deferring to some consolidation and taking a break from the recent trend of broad based USD and safe-haven currency buying. [Link]

Swiss Employment Rises Less Than Expected in Q2

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.26

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GBPUSD: Rebound to Yield Short Entry

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USD/JPY Classical 08.26

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USD/CHF Classical 08.26

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USD/CAD Classical 08.26

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NZD/USD Classical 08.26

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GBP/USD Classical 08.26

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.26

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Wednesday Price Action Leaves Many Traders Scratching Their Heads

Crude Oil Gets a Reprieve, Gold Approaches the All-Time Highs

Twenty year highs in U.S. inventories couldn’t stop crude oil from rallying on Wednesday, as oversold conditions ruled the day. Gold benefitted from the release of more poor economic data. [Link]

EUR/USD Classical 08.26

Setbacks have stalled out for now by 1.2585, ahead of the latest minor bounce. Wednesday’s close should however be somewhat concerning for bears, with the market putting in the first bullish close in 6 trading days and also taking out the previous daily high to set up a potential bullish reversal. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.26

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.26

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AUD/USD Classical 08.26

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TECH TALK 08.26

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Euro at Risk Ahead of Money Supply Report But Stock Gains May Deter Sellers

The Euro looks vulnerable as accelerating money supply growth puts downward pressure on the single currency’s yield advantage but a rebound in risk appetite hinted by stock index futures may deter sellers in the near term. [Link]

Dollar’s Safe Haven Status at Risk Exposing Failing Growth, Rates

Over the past two to five years, the dollar has always had some fundamental foundation for which it could fall back on to establish at least a meaningful level of support. In currency market conditions, however, it is difficult to number relative growth and interest rate forecasts as elements of strength. [Link]

London Calling Aug 26

[Link]

Dollar: Will a Sharp Downgrade in GDP following Housing, Durables Orders Data Help or Hinder the Greenback?

It was bound to happen eventually. After five consecutive days of advancement, the US dollar finally put in for a bearish close on Wednesday. That being said, the resultant correction was relatively modest. In fact, if we look at the stripped down representation of the greenback, we see that not only was the daily change modest; but the entire days range would fall within the breadth of Tuesday’s session. [Link]

Crude Oil Inventories Watch: Week Ending 08/20/2010

[Link]

Dollar Positioning Hints Multi-Year Rally Ahead, Near-Term Decline Likely

The US Dollar looks likely to pare recent gains as risky assets correct higher with oil and stock prices showing signs of a near-term rebound, but long-term positioning points to a multi-year US Dollar rally in the making. [Link]

FXbootcamp European Outlook 08/26/2010

[Link]

A Tolerance for Event Risk Leads Oil to a Correction, Gold to New Highs

Speculative panic has diminished since yesterday’s shocked response to an economy-stalling US existing home sales report. And, while the data scheduled for release today is just as disconcerting, we have seen most risk-based assets claw back lost ground. [Link]

Forex Strategy Corner: Using Candlestick Formations in Trading

EURUSD and GBPUSD Bear Trends Stall but Fundamentals Still Pulling

[Link]

Identifying a Range

Student’s Question: What are the first signs to tell you that you are in the beginnings of a range bound market? How many tests of support/resistance? Are there any indicators to give a hint to a range bound market? [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the 2Q Preliminary U.S. GDP Report

As market participants expect to see a downward revision in the second-quarter growth rate, the data is likely to spark increased volatility in the currency market as the world’s largest economy continues to face a risk for a protracted recovery. [Link]

US Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish on FX Options Sentiment

Continued US Dollar rallies have been met with similarly aggressive moves in FX Options sentiment, pointing to further USD gains through near-term trade. Several weeks ago we argued that US Dollar bearish extremes in CFTC Commitment of Traders Futures positioning warned of a potential reversal, and sharp moves in options prices raised the likelihood that the USD had bottomed. [Link]

Momentum Following Yesterday's Shock Cools, Leaving Breakouts Hanging

[Link]

Downside Risks Remain for the GBPUSD as the Pair Struggles to Break Above the 200-day SMA

The British pound pared yesterday’s decline against the U.S. dollar, but now looks to find major resistance at the 200-day moving average. Failure to make a clear break above 1.5500 may lead to downside risks back towards 1.5370 over the next twenty four hours. [Link]

Stay short EURUSD

[Link]

Swiss Franc Rallies on Flight To Safety, New Zealand Dollar Hits Fresh Monthly Low

The Swiss Franc rallied across the board and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Wednesday, while the New Zealand dollar extended the decline from the previous day and slipped to a fresh monthly low of 0.6948 following the flight to safety. [Link]

U.S. New Home Sales Plunge 12.4 Percent in July

New home sales in the world’s largest economy tumbled 12.4 percent in July to mark its lowest level since record keeping began. The data trails yesterday’s free fall in existing home sales, and going forward, we may continue to see home sales come under increased pressure as Americans face subdued wage growth, a high unemployment rate, tight credit conditions, and mounting foreclosures. [Link]

Ireland's Credit Downgrade Weighs on Market Sentiment

[Link]

Remain Short EURUSD and Long AUDNZD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

[Link]

Australian Dollar Cross Pick 08.25.10

[Link]

Euro Falls Back as S&P Cuts Ireland’s Credit Rating, British Pound Maintains Narrow Range

The Euro pared the overnight advance to 1.2725 as Standard & Poor’s lowered its credit rating for Ireland, and the single-currency may continue to trend lower over the remainder of the week as price action continues to trade below the 100-Day SMA at 1.2743. [Link]

S&P Cuts Irelands Credit Rating to AA-, EUR/USD Continues Southern Journey Despite the Rise in German Business Confidence

Business confidence in Europe’s largest economy rose to its highest level since June 2007. Figures climbed to 106.7 from 106.2 in July, while the current assessment sub index advanced to 108.2 from 106.8 in the same time period. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 08.25

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USDJPY: Long Term Bias Bullish Despite Recent Losses

[Link]

Euro Selling to Resume as German IFO Declines, Risk Aversion Returns

The Euro corrected higher in overnight trade but sellers are likely to return as Germany’s IFO survey of business sentiment points to souring confidence while US stock index futures lose Asia-session gains. [Link]

Dollar Stalls Even as Stocks Breach Key Support, Oil Selling Continues

The US Dollar stalled ahead of familiar resistance despite a major breakdown in global stock prices and continued selling of crude oil, which would have been expected to boost the safe-haven currency. [Link]

Crude Oil Stumbles on Data, Gold Upside May be Limited

More housing data and the DOE inventory report promise to make Wednesday an eventful day for crude oil. Gold momentum is fading with ETF holdings dipping lower for the first time in ten days. [Link]

The Fed's Biggest Bubble

[Link]

Dollar Actually Loses Ground as Pessimism Washes Over the Markets, Is this a Permanent Divergence?

It is one of the most dependable fundamental correlations Forex traders have to work with: as one of the market’s favorite safe haven currencies, the US dollar moves inversely to risk appetite. Yet, this unfailing link clearly broke down Tuesday under a significant shift in risk appetite – exactly when we would expect the connection to be the strongest. [Link]

London Calling Aug 25

[Link]

NZDUSD: Short Trade Triggered, Targeting Below 0.69

[Link]

AUDUSD: Enter Short as Prices Clear Support

[Link]

Japan Trade Balance Surges Despite Export Decline

[Link]

Oil and Gold Respond to Risk Appetite with Similar Volatility, Different Trends

We knew that fundamental activity would pick up this week; but the severe impact of today’s US housing data was beyond what could have been expected. It breaks are being thrown on the economic recovery faster than expected and commodities are suffering for it. [Link]

Pivot Points

[Link]

GBP/CHF Range Testing Critical Pivot Level

The British Pound has fallen out of favor with traders as concerns grow that the austerity measures underway by the new coalition government will stall growth going forward. A dimming picture for the global economy has added to the bearish sterling sentiment especially against safe-haven currencies. [Link]

Volatility and Fear Surge in Equal Measures and Yet the Dollar is Still in the Red

[Link]

Big Fundamental Waves and Technical Breakouts Trigger New Trade Options

[Link]

EURUSD Capped by 50-Day SMA Ahead of the Durable Goods Orders Report

Durable goods orders are forecasted to climb 3.0 percent in July after falling 1.2 percent the previous month, and the expected advance will mark the first rise since April. Indeed, the anticipated rise contradicts recent reports that showed that manufacturing slowed. [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the German IFO Business Confidence Survey

Business confidence in Germany is expected to fall back from a three-year high in August, and the data could weigh on the exchange rate as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. [Link]

Gold Breaks Channel

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British Pound Target at 15200

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Euro Target Near 12300

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New Zealand Dollar Target is 6800

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Crude Long Term Bearish

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Swiss Franc Focus on 10130

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Canadian Dollar Focus on 10860

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Australian Dollar Initial Target is 8700

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Scalping Trade Strategies

Just a decade ago, scalping was a lucrative form of trading that only pit traders could partake in. With tight spreads and a clear view of the market, the hustle and bustle of the open outcry market was perfectly suited for many quick entries and exits for five or ten basis points at a time. Now, however, with access to the deep liquidity of the currency market along with improvements to technology and data flow, retail traders have now found their way into the trading space formerly dominated by professionals. However, entry alone does not guarantee success. In fact, for the unprepared it merely presents a means to lose their money more quickly. Without the entire market trading in front of you, successful scalping requires a definitive strategy that takes advantage of an inefficiency or even a natural characteristic of the market that is only seen through very short time frames. In this article, we will highlight three scalping strategies for the currency markets: scalping around event risk; near key technical levels; and through ranges and mean reversion. [Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/24

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Japanese Yen Breakout-Eyes on 80

The USDJPY has broken lower and focus remains on the all time low just below 8000. [Link]

Gold Breaks Channel

[Link]

Canadian Dollar Focus on 10860

[Link]

Swiss Franc Focus on 10130

[Link]

NZD/USD’s Test of Support is Generating Scalping Opportunity

Remain Short EURUSD and Long AUDNZD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD

[Link]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Plunge 27.2 Percent in July

Existing home sales in the world’s largest economy plunged 27.2% to an annualized pace of 3.83M in July from a revised 5.26M in the previous month, and marked the fastest pace of decline since comparable records began in 1999. The breakdown of the report showed demands for single-family homes slumped 27.1% after falling 7.2% in the month prior, while sales of condos and co-ops plunged 28.1% during the same period after contracting 5.9% in June, and the ongoing weakness in the private sector may drag on the recovery as households continue to face tightening credit conditions paired with the deterioration in the labor market. [Link]

Australian Dollar Cross Pick 08.24.10

[Link]

S&P500

The S&P500 moved down through support at the 1054.60 level this morning. [Link]

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY printed a new 9-year low overnight. [Link]

Euro Pressured As Banking Concerns Re-emerge

[Link]

USDJPY Tumbles to 15 Year Low, Euro Weighed by Comments from Moody's Investor Services

[Link]

Canadian Retail Sales Advance Less Than Expected in June

Canadian retail sales advanced 0.1% in June after falling a revised 0.4 percent the previous month amid economists’ expectations of 0.4 percent. Despite the muted reaction subsequent to the report, it is noteworthy that the USDCAD intraday rally is now testing the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement on April 21st to May 25th upswing. Focus now turns to the U.S. existing home sales report. [Link]

Yen Appreciation Becoming Less Attractive and Less Sensible; Looking to Fade

Indeed, the big story overnight has been the renewed buying of Yen to fresh multi-year highs against the US Dollar and Euro. [Link]

Long USD/JPY @83.80

[Link]

U.S. Dollar Benefits From Risk Aversion, Japanese Yen Rallies To 15-Year High

Market participants continued to scale back their appetite for risk, with the EUR/USD extending the previous day’s decline to reach a fresh monthly low of 1.2603, and the shift in market sentiment may continue to drive the greenback higher throughout the day as it benefits from the rise in safe-haven flows. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.24

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Industrial Orders Top Forecasts

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.24

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EURUSD: Enter Short as Prices Clear Support

[Link]

Germany Confirms Breathtaking Growth; Can It Be Maintained?

Second quarter growth in Germany was confirmed at 2.2% this morning as exports and investment fueled Germany’s record breaking economic growth. [Link]

TECH TALK 08.24

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Euro Sellers May Overlook Firm German GDP as Risk Aversion Continues

The Euro may not get much of a reprieve after recent losses despite expectations of a robust German GDP report set to cross the wires in the coming session as risk aversion takes on a life of its own across financial markets. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 08.24

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USD/CHF Classical 08.24

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USD/CAD Classical 08.24

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NZD/USD Classical 08.24

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GBP/USD Classical 08.24

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.24

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EUR/USD Classical 08.24

Last Friday’s drop below 1.2730 confirms a fresh lower top now in place by 1.2925 and opens the next downside extension towards the 1.2500 figure over the coming sessions. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.24

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.24

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AUD/USD Classical 08.24

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Euro Weighed Down by Moody's Ratings Downgrade Warnings

The lack of economic releases in Monday trade was certainly a good proxy for the way things went, with some lackluster overall price action. [Link]

Crude Oil Drips Lower, Gold Nears a Critical Juncture

Crude oil fell again on Monday, but downside momentum continues to slow and prices are oversold. Gold has fallen for two consecutive sessions—a pause or the start of a reversal? [Link]

Dollar Opens the Week in the Green as Investors’ Appetites Sate, Relative Growth Bolstered

The US dollar has begun the new week on stable footing as the trade-weighted index put in for its fourth consecutive daily advance. The consistency is encouraging; but the lack of drive behind the move suggests this is more habitual a move rather than one that is fundamentally sourced. What is the difference between the two? [Link]

London Calling Aug 24

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Jamie's Trading Video: 08/23/10

[Link]

Crude Oil Extends Losses, Stocks and the US Dollar Test Key Barriers

Crude oil has pushed through another level of support, clearing the way for continued selling, while global stock markets and the US Dollar are treading water at familiar technical barriers. Gold positioning continues to hint losses ahead. [Link]

Both Crude and Gold Slip as Risk Aversion Takes up Before Selling Pressure

Fundamental activity is back on track at the start of the new trading week; but the commodity market is stilling wanting for momentum. What will catalyze oil in a drive below $70 and force gold to finally reverse its month-long bull trend? [Link]

Carts and Horses

[Link]

FXbootcamp European Outlook 08/24/2010

[Link]

EURUSD Gains Traction and Now We Wait for GBUSD to Supply Convinction

[Link]

EURUSD Extends its Reversal but Conviction in Risk Aversion Could Further Pull GBPUSD to Breakout

[Link]

EURUSD: Short Trade Entered as Prices Breach Support

[Link]

Jamie's Trading Plan: 08/23

[Link]

Drawing a Trendline

Student's Question: As you can see, I had some difficulties drawing the trendlines of the daily USDJPY one year chart...could you enlighten me on this? Thanks. [Link]

Euro Follows Stocks Lower As Stalling Manufacturing Dims Growth Outlook

The EUR/USD extended its recent losses as traders remain cautious with the domestic and global growth picture dimming. A disappointing Euro-zone PMI reading only added to traders concerns, as the gauge of the manufacturing and service industries slipped to 56.1 from 56.7. [Link]

European Equities Halt Decline as Consumer Confidence Rebounds

European stocks rallied for the first time in four days as French manufacturing data beat expectations and Euro-Zone consumer confidence rose to its highest level since January 2008. The bullish data boosted stocks, pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index higher by 0.6 percent to 253.76. [Link]

COT Data is US Dollar Bullish

The Euro and British Pound have turned from bullish extremes following last week’s USD turn from a bearish extreme. The Australian Dollar remains at a bullish extreme. [Link]

A Greater Than Expected Drop in U.S. Existing Home Sales Report May Validate Recent EURUSD Short Position

[Link]

USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian Retail Sales Report

A rebound in private consumption is likely to encourage an improved outlook for Canada, and the data could spark speculation for a rate hike in September as the economic recovery gathers pace. [Link]

Fed's Hoenig Warns of “Competitive Disadvantage” for Community Banks

U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Thomas Hoening testified before the House Committee on Oversight and Investigations. Mr. Hoening who is the Fed’s longest serving policy maker said that the “economy will continue to improve,” and went onto add that there may be more consolidation in the banking industry. [Link]

USDJPY Maintains Desending Channel as Retail Traders Look for a Corrective Retracement

USDJPY price action remains bounded by the descending channel, dating back to June as retail traders continue to look for a corrective retracement in the pair. Over the next 24 hours, a retest of 85.50 may lead to downside risks towards 84.90. [Link]

Stay short EURUSD

[Link]

Euro Heads into the North American Trade Directionless, AUD Traders Face Political Uncertainty

[Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/23

[Link]

Euro Heads into the North American Trade Directionless, AUD Traders Face Political Uncertainty

[Link]

Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Strength Favors Trend-Following Systems

Continued US Dollar and Japanese Yen strength makes trend-following forex trading strategies attractive through upcoming trade. Indeed, our algorithmic trading strategy bias remains unchanged from last week’s report when we made a similar argument for USD and JPY gains. A more recent decline in forex options market volatility expectations raises risks that currencies may return to smaller trading ranges. Yet we are hopeful that a Euro/US Dollar break below the psychologically significant 1.2700 mark could invite renewed US Dollar strength. [Link]

New Zealand Dollar Stalls Ahead of 50-Day SMA, Swiss Franc Weakens Across The Board

The New Zealand dollar pared the overnight decline and rallied to a high of 0.7124 on Monday following the rise in risk appetite, while the Franc lost ground against all of its major counterparts and is the weakest link against the greenback on Monday. [Link]

A Range USD/JPY Continues To Provide Ideal Scalping Environment

The USD/JPY continues to trade in a tight range following its test of major support despite the recent flight to safety. The pair’s failure to break below adds to the validity of the downside barrier, reducing potential risks. [Link]

Remain Short EURUSD and Long AUDNZD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

[Link]

Gold Testing Channel Support

[Link]

Euro Bearish against 12925

[Link]

British Pound Focus is on 15200

[Link]

Japanese Yen Consolidation Will Lead to a Break

[Link]

Swiss Franc Holding 78.6% Level

[Link]

Crude Nears August Low

[Link]

Canadian Dollar Tests Range High (USDCAD)

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Breaks Channel

[Link]

Australian Dollar Resistance at Trendline

There is potential trendline AUDUSD resistance at 9007 today and the line decreases 20 pips per day. [Link]

Canadian Dollar Cross Pick 08.23.10

[Link]

Yen May Come Under Pressure on Waning Risk Aversion

[Link]

Economic Calendar

A quiet week on the Economic Calendar as this graphic shows. [Link]

EUR/CHF

This daily chart of the EUR/CHF shows a market that is closing in on all-time lows. [Link]

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing, Services Weaken in August, EURUSD Directionless Going into the U.S. Trade

Euro-zone PMI manufacturing for the month of August slowed to 55.0 from 56.7 the month prior amid economists’ expectations of 56.1, while the services index cooled to 55.6 from 55.8 in July, Markit Economics said today. [Link]

Euro Holds Steady, British Pound Pares Friday’s Decline Following Rebound In Risk Sentiment

The Euro held a narrow range throughout the overnight trade, with the EUR/USD trading below the 50-Day SMA at 1.2739, and the single-currency may hold steady throughout the day following the mixed price action in the foreign exchange market. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.23

[Link]

Aussie Sees Whipsaw Price Action in Otherwise Quiet Start to Week

Overall, it has been a relatively quiet start to the week, with the markets pretty much confined to familiar ranges ahead of the North American open. [Link]

Looking to Buy USD/JPY Dips

[Link]

China's Wen Promises Reform - China Weekly 08.23

[Link]

USDCAD: Long Trade Taken on Trend Line Break

[Link]

Europe's Services and Manufacturing Industries weaken in August

[Link]

German PMI Shows Mixed Reading Unlikely to Effect Growth Expectations

[Link]

Forex Fundamental Trends Monitor 08.23.2010

Currency markets remain anchored to risk sentiment, with the path of least resistance pointing to continued risk aversion as the week’s round of US economic data threatens to further undermine investors’ confidence in the continuity of the global recovery. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 08.23

[Link]

GBP/USD Classical 08.23

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.23

[Link]

EUR/USD Classical 08.23

Friday’s drop below 1.2730 confirms a fresh lower top now in place by 1.2925 and opens the next downside extension towards the 1.2500 area over the coming days. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.23

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.23

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AUD/USD Classical 08.23

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USD/JPY Classical 08.23

[Link]

USD/CHF Classical 08.23

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USD/CAD Classical 08.23

[Link]

NZD/USD Classical 08.23

[Link]

Australia Election Uncertainty Leads to Volatility in Early Monday Trade

While most major currencies have kicked off the week trading relatively stable, the Australian Dollar has deviated from this pattern, with the commodity currency initially weighed down by political risk resulting from the latest national election in which the results are still unclear. [Link]

TECH TALK 08.23

[Link]

Japanese Yen Gains as Stocks Fall in Asia but Futures Hint Reversal Ahead

The Japanese Yen gained as shares sold off in Asian trade, boosting the safety-linked currency, but an advance on US stock index futures late into the session hints risk appetite may stage a recovery in European hours. [Link]

Scandis Coming Under Some Pressure As Rate Expectations Scaled Back

[Link]

Crude Oil Steady after $10 Drop, Gold Investor Demand Picks Up

Crude oil will continue to look toward the economic outlook for directional guidance after plunging $10 over a two week period. Gold continues to benefit from investor demand. [Link]

Gold Hints Major Top in Place, Dollar Gains as Stocks and Oil Extend Losses

Gold technical positioning hints the metal is carving out a major, long-term top below the record high at $1265.30. The US Dollar has gained on safe-haven buying as risky assets including stocks and crude oil turn lower. [Link]

USDCAD: Enter Long as Prices Clear Trend Line

[Link]

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 08-23-10

US Dollar on the Verge of Rally as Sentiment Threatens Collapse Euro Forecast Remains Bearish – Watch for Test of Key Support Japanese Yen to Extend Five-Week Rally as Risk Aversion Continues British Pound Directionless as Traders Digest Recent Developments Canadian Dollar To Succumb To Risk Trends, Interest Rate Expectations Australian Dollar Vulnerable As Double Dip Talk Surfaces New Zealand Dollar Holds above .7000, but Break May be Imminent Gold’s Steady Three-Week Rally May Find Some Volatility [Link]

US Dollar on the Verge of Rally as Sentiment Threatens Collapse

[Link]

Dollar Forges a Four-Week High to End the Week but Follow Through Up to Risk Trends Next Week

Given the extremely light economic docket and the temperate level of speculative trends heading into the final hours of the trading week, we wouldn’t expect there to be much activity before liquidity officially drains for the weekend. Yet, the dollar and the capital markets in general would in fact put in for a shocking bout of volatility. [Link]

Japanese Yen to Extend Five-Week Rally as Risk Aversion Continues

[Link]

A Dip in Capital Markets Pushes Oil Towards Reversal, Tempers Gold's Rally

Commodities slip across the board to the end the week despite a lack of tangible fundamental interest and otherwise light speculative backdrop. Perhaps next week’s heavy docket can inspire meaningful trends. [Link]

Euro Forecast Remains Bearish – Watch for Test of Key Support

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Holds above .7000, but Break May be Imminent

[Link]

Australian Dollar Vulnerable As Double Dip Talk Surfaces

[Link]

Canadian Dollar To Succumb To Risk Trends, Interest Rate Expectations

[Link]

British Pound Directionless as Traders Digest Recent Developments

[Link]

Dollar Could Benefit on Signs That Global Growth Is Slowing Absent Stimulus

Fears are growing that growth is stalling and a double dip recession is on the horizon. This week’s fundamental releases will provide key evidence to the fragility of the U.S. and Euro-zone economies. [Link]

Swiss Franc Regaining Safe Haven Status as Dollar Loses Favor

The Swiss Franc has started to regain its status as a safe haven currency which has sent the USD/CHF to its lowest levels since January 19th. Indeed, we have seen the pair’s negative correlation with risk appetite shrink from 40% to 10% as it has traded in line with equity markets. [Link]

EURUSD and GBPUSD Test Their Technical Boundaries to Setup Strong Trade Opportunities for Monday

[Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 08-20

The specter of 5 waves down in the EURJPY from 11475 suggests that a correction is due in the Yen crosses. [Link]

A Week Ending Push Puts Us on the Hunt for Breakouts Next Week

[Link]

USD/JPY’s Test of Support Presents Scalping Opportunity

Remain Short EURUSD and Long AUDNZD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD

[Link]

U.S. Dollar Rises Against Most Major Currencies as Traders Seek Safety

[Link]

Forex Strategy Corner: Using Seasonality Strategies in Your Trading

Forex market seasonality is an often-neglected aspect of trading with legitimate uses for the speculator, and this article attempts to highlight certain dynamics and create a strategy out of key market trends. The past several Forex Strategy Corner articles have dealt with money management on existing strategies. In this article we hope to discuss new trade generation techniques and insights on a key facet of the forex market. [Link]

Crude Breaks Trendline

[Link]

Australian Dollar Support at 8720

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Breaks Low

[Link]

Canadian Dollar 10640 a Level of Interest

[Link]

Gold May Have Put in a Top

[Link]

Swiss Franc Reversal?

[Link]

Euro Objective 12300/12400

The EURUSD correction is almost certainly complete at 12925. Focus now turns towards the 12300-12400 area, which is the 61.8 retracement of the prior rally. [Link]

Japanese Yen Nearing Historic Level

[Link]

British Pound Heading Towards 15200

[Link]

Stay short EURUSD

[Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/20

[Link]

Canadian Consumer Prices Advance 1.8% in July, USDCAD Tests at 1.0500

Annualized consumer prices in Canada rose 1.8 percent in July from 1.0 percent the previous month largely due to the Harmonized sales tax (HST) in some provinces. Meanwhile, the core rate from a year ago slowed to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent in June, the Statistics in Canada said today. [Link]

New_Zealand Dollar At Critical Level

[Link]

U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen Benefit From Flight To Safety

The Euro extended the decline from earlier this week and slipped to a fresh monthly low of 1.2684 as investors continued to scale back on their appetite for risk, and market sentiment is likely to drive price action going into the end of the week as the economic docket remains very thin for Friday. [Link]

Looking to Buy USD/JPY; No Signal Just Yet

[Link]

AUDUSD: Key Trend Line in Play, Sell Entry Sought

[Link]

Broad Based USD Demand Could Start to Weigh on Yen

It has been very difficult to gauge what the mood and reaction of the markets will be towards the US Dollar on domestic economic data releases. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.20

[Link]

Canadian Dollar: All Eyes On CPI as Traders Weigh the Currency's Drivers

The Canadian Dollar stands at an important crossroads as July’s inflation figures prepare to cross the wires, with traders keen to gauge the outcome’s implications for the balance between the influence of risk and fundamental trends over the exchange rate. [Link]

Currency Markets Look Past Stock Market Cues, Consolidate in Asian Trade

Currency markets consolidated in Asian trade, looking past a sharp uptick in risk aversion stock exchanges as Asian shares followed Wall Street lower after lackluster US economic data spurred fears of a global slowdown. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 08.20

[Link]

USD/CHF Classical 08.20

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USD/JPY Classical 08.20

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USD/CAD Classical 08.20

[Link]

NZD/USD Classical 08.20

[Link]

GBP/USD Classical 08.20

[Link]

GBP/JPY Classical 08.20

[Link]

EUR/USD Classical 08.20

[Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.20

[Link]

EUR/CHF Classical 08.20

[Link]

AUD/USD Classical 08.20

[Link]

Crude Oil Tumbles on Dismal Data, Gold Uptrend Back in Full Force

Unexpectedly bad economic data sent crude oil to a new recent low and gold to a new recent high. Of note has been silver, which fell for the second day despite strong gold prices. [Link]

Tech Talk 08.20

[Link]

Yen at Risk for Major Capitulation; USD and Swissie Finding More Safety Bids

It has been very difficult to gauge what the mood and reaction of the markets will be towards the US Dollar on domestic economic data releases. [Link]

EURUSD: Candles Point to Euro Recovery Ahead

[Link]

GBPUSD: Bounce Higher Hinted at Channel Bottom

[Link]

USDJPY: Indecision at Lows Invites Bullish Breakout

[Link]

USDCAD: Trend Line Resistance Back in Play

[Link]

Dollar Posts a Hesitant Advance as Data Weighs Growth and Risk Aversion at the Same Time

On a day when the market would put in for a significant swing in favor of risk aversion, the US dollar would tally an otherwise staid performance. The trade-weighted Dollar Index closed Thursday’s session with its second consecutive advance to split the week between gains and losses. What we should take from this split personality is the lack of general progress. [Link]

NZDUSD: Consolidation Continues Below 0.72

[Link]

AUDUSD: Sell Entry Sought as Prices Test Support

[Link]

London Calling Aug 20

[Link]

Crude Attempts to Confirm Reversal, Gold Extends a Remarkable Trend

They are two distinctly contrasting markets. On the one hand, gold has put in for a tame but surprisingly consistent trend. On the other, oil has finally broke free of a three-month channel. Will these developments last? [Link]

Oil Takes Out Support as Gold Extends Gains, Dollar and Stocks Consolidate

Crude oil prices have taken out a key support while gold has added to recent gains. The US Dollar and an index of global stock performance continue to consolidate at familiar levels. [Link]

Singapore Dollar to Fall From 29-Year High as Global Recovery Falters

The Singapore Dollar is positioned to reverse lower having tested the highest level in nearly three decades as the risk-sensitive currency succumbs to headwinds from a broad-based slowdown in global economic growth. [Link]

Jamie's Trading Video: 08/19

[Link]

Volatility Draws Traders into False Trades

[Link]

The Importance of Obtaining the Bigger Picture

Student's Comment: In the following historical chart EUR/USD I would try to enter the market at 1.3500 and make a stop position at 1.3450. [Link]

The Importance of Getting the Bigger Picture

Student's Comment: In the following chart EUR/USD I would try to enter the market at 1.3500 and make a stop position at 1.3450. [Link]

Volatility Distracts Traders from Broad Congestion for Both EURUSD and the S&P 500

[Link]

NZD/USD Channel At Risk As Growth Signs Dim

The New Zealand dollar erased the majority of its gains on the week today weighed by dovish comments from RBNZ Governor Bollard and disappointing U.S. data. Weaker than expected manufacturing data and a rise in initial jobless claims above a half million, sparked a flight to safety, punishing the high yielder. [Link]

USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian Consumer Price Index

A rebound in the headline reading for inflation could spark a bullish reaction in the Canadian dollar as investors see scope for another 25bp rate hike in September, and the rise in price growth could lead the USD/CAD to retrace the sharp rally from Thursday as Bank of Canada drops its dovish bias for future policy. [Link]

USDCAD Maintains Desending Channel Ahead of the Canadian Inflation Report

[Link]

A Range Bound GBP/USD Offers Scalping Opportunity

The GBP/USD spiked higher in early trading following a 0.9% rise in retail sales and a smaller than expected budget deficit in July. The pair has started to consolidate as weak U.S. fundamental data fueled concerns over global growth limiting optimism. [Link]

Pound Gets Boost from Hawkish BoE, Yet Risk Trends Remain Driver of Price Action

The GBP/USD surged in early trading as the hawkish tone to the BoE minutes raised the outlook for a rate hike. Bullish conviction would wane as equity markets started off on a sour note as risk sentiment remains the main driver of the pair’s price action. [Link]

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey Unexpectedly Declines in August

According to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, manufacturing conditions for the month of August fell for the first time since July of 2009. Figures plunged to -7.7 from last month’s reading of 5.10 amid economists’ expectations for an increase to 7.0, and the reading provides little reason for optimism in the world’s largest economy. [Link]

Euro Forecast Unclear Amidst Sentiment Shift

[Link]

Japanese Yen Forecast to Gain Further

[Link]

Canadian Dollar to Appreciate against USD

[Link]

Japanese Yen Forecast to Rally vs US Dollar, British Pound

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Unclear Amidst Sentiment Shift GBPUSD – British Pound Bias Near-Neutral on Indecision USDJPY – Japanese Yen Forecast to Gain Further USDCHF – Swiss Franc Likely to Strengthen against Dollar USDCAD – Canadian Dollar to Appreciate against USD GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast to decline Against Japanese Yen View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section [Link]

British Pound Forecast to decline Against Japanese Yen

[Link]

Swiss Franc Likely to Strengthen against Dollar

[Link]

British Pound Bias Near-Neutral on Indecision

[Link]

U.K. Retail Sales Tops Forecasts; Bundesbank Raises Germany's 2010 Growth Forecast

Producer prices in Europe’s largest economy soared an annualized 3.7 percent in July after climbing 1.7 percent the previous month to exceed economists forecast for a 3.3 percent rise. [Link]

Australian Dollar 8920 is the Pivot

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Bearish Channel Holds

[Link]

Euro Secondary Top Possibly in Place

It is unclear if 12925 is the secondary EURUSD top. However, even a move above would probably prove temporary. [Link]

Japanese Yen Nearing Historic Level

[Link]

British Pound Completing Flat Correction

[Link]

Swiss Franc is a Beast – Watch 10130

[Link]

Crude Resistance Starts at 7700

[Link]

Gold 1250 Remains Potential Resistance

[Link]

Canadian Dollar Reverses at Fibonacci Level

[Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/19

[Link]

Canadian Dollar 10250 a Potential Pivot

[Link]

Japanese Yen Approaching 8480

[Link]

Swiss Franc Stays Within Range

[Link]

Crude Approaches Support Line

[Link]

Gold 1250 is Potential Resistance

[Link]

Euro Rallies Overnight as the Bundesbank Raises Germany's Growth Forecast

[Link]

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF, which has been trading in a range for over a month, broke down through the lows this morning. [Link]

EUR/CAD

The EUR is starting to show some weakness across the board. [Link]

Remain Short EURUSD; Long AUDNZD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

[Link]

Pound Finds Support On Shrinking Deficit and Retail_Sales

[Link]

Canadian Dollar Cross Pick 08.19.10

[Link]

British Pound Advances as Economic Outlook Improves, Bundesbank Raises 2010 Growth Forecast

The British Pound pared the overnight decline and rallied to a high of 1.5664 during the European trade as the economic docket reinforced an improved outlook for the U.K. economy, and the GBP/USD appears to be carving a short-term bottom as price action continues to hold above the 200-Day SMA at 1.5492. [Link]

Currencies Less Bid Than to Be Expected Following Stronger Overnight Data

Overall, a very solid round of data overnight has helped to keep USD bulls in check for the time being, with the Euro recouping a good portion of its Asian setbacks, and most other major currencies tracking higher against the Greenback on the day thus far. [Link]

Looking to Add to USD/CAD on Dip

[Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.19

[Link]

U.K. Retail Sales Tops Forecasts; Bundesbank Raises Germany's 2010 Growth Forecast

Producer prices in Europe’s largest economy soared an annualized 3.7 percent in July after climbing 1.7 percent the previous month to exceed economists forecast for a 3.3 percent rise. [Link]

GBPUSD: Rebound at Support to Yield Sell Entry

[Link]

UK Retail Sales Smash Expectations

[Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 08.19

[Link]

Swiss Balance Improves as Global Demand for Exports Recovers

[Link]

German Producer Prices Rise

[Link]

USD/JPY Classical 08.19

[Link]

USD/CHF Classical 08.19

[Link]

USD/CAD Classical 08.19

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NZD/USD Classical 08.19

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GBP/USD Classical 08.19

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.19

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EUR/USD Classical 08.19

In the process of consolidating the latest sharp setbacks out from 1.3330, with the market stalling out ahead of 1.2700 for now. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.19

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.19

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AUD/USD Classical 08.19

[Link]

US Dollar Ignores Risk Trends, Outperforms Despite Asian Stock Gains

The US Dollar rose against its major counterparts despite gains across Asian stock exchanges, breaking with its familiar dynamic of trading inversely with risky assets and clouding the outlook for European hours. [Link]

Wider Greek Bond Spread Potential Red Flag for Euro Bulls

Wednesday’s session of trade showed the USD regaining some of its bid tone against the Euro, albeit only marginally, and in the end, broader price action was quite uneventful, with the markets still content on some consolidation ahead of the next move. [Link]

Crude Oil Falls on Abundant Supplies, Gold ETF Holdings Follow Price Higher

Crude oil got slammed early in the Wednesday session before rebounding notably following the DOE inventory report . Which is not to say that the report was bullish—it was not. But prices got low enough to spur a rebound in the commodity which has fallen precipitously from last week’s highs. [Link]

Dollar Risk Rally Runs Dry as Fed Buys Treasuries, Growth Wobbles

Speculative interest would catch up to fundamental reality this past week. A reversal in the dollar’s favor was instigated by a technical break and reversal last Wednesday; but the momentum behind this correction was based on underlying market positioning and fundamentals. [Link]

TECH TALK 08.19

[Link]

Norwegian GDP Comes into the Spotlight

[Link]

London Calling Aug19

[Link]

Australian Wages Grow Least in Nearly Four Years, Bolster Flat RBA Outlook

[Link]

Dollar Halts its Modest Reversal as Risk Trends Balance, Fundamental Catalysts Evaporate

The US dollar advanced for the first time this week; but the conviction behind the climb was as convincing as the reversal that opened the week. That is to say it was weak. In fact, if we were to assess the greenback’s progress over the past week (five active trading days); we see that the single currency has essentially carved a narrow range with no real inclination towards establishing trend. [Link]

London Calling Aug 19

[Link]

Crude Oil Inventories Watch: Week Ending 08/13/2010

[Link]

US Dollar, Stocks Stall But Oil Positioning Hints Risk Rebound to Continue

The US Dollar and an index of global stock performance have stalled ahead of key technical barriers but crude oil positioning hints the risk rebound may continue with prices showing signs of bottoming at channel support. Gold has resumed upward momentum. [Link]

A Light Day for Fundamentals Doesn't Prevent Gold and Oil Volatility

Commodities weather the prevailing fundamental winds. Gold advances despite a mixed reading on risk trends; while crude recovers from a breakdown against a new high for the ever-growing supply glut. [Link]

Forex Strategy Corner: Using Seasonality Strategies in Your Trading

Held up at Resistance as Fundamentals Wind Down

[Link]

Jamie's Trading Plan

[Link]

Interpreting Stochastics

Student's Question: My question is regarding when do we enter a trade using Stochastics: 1. after stochastics have crossed 80/20 lines in either direction? 2. after stochasics crossed below the 80 and above the 20 lines? Also, do I have to wait for the current candle to close to enter the trade? Thank you very much. [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 08-18

Consolidation in the Yen crosses should lead to additional weakness. [Link]

GBP/USD: Trading the Change in U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing

Government borrowing in the U.K. is expected to expand at the slowest pace since January, and the improvement in public finances could drive the exchange rate higher as investors weigh the prospects for future growth. [Link]

DailyFX Analyst’s Setting Up For Yen and Euro Reversals, but Not Everyone is Convinced

DailyFX analysts have started to position themselves for a Yen and Euro reversal. Getting long the USD/JPY has been a favorite pick with the pair at a multi-year low, but technical analyst Jamie Saettele still sees further downside. [Link]

GBPUSD Lures with a False Breakout and AUDCAD on the Verge of a New Trend

[Link]

GBPUSD Looks for Direction Ahead of the U.K. Retail Sales Report

[Link]

S&P500

Some selling pressure in the S&P500 has resulted in some USD strength this morning. [Link]

EUR/GBP

A series of lower highs and lower lows on this EUR/GBP daily chart means this pair is in a downtrend. [Link]

A Range Bound USD/CHF Offers Scalping Opportunity

The Swiss Franc has started to decouple from the Euro as the Euro-zone recovery has found its footing and the threat of the sovereign debt crisis diminishes. Therefore, the pair has become less sensitive to European fundamental data with the low yielder starting to take on its traditional safe haven role. [Link]

Pound Rallies on the Back of BoE Minutes, Euro Directionless Going into the North American Trade

[Link]

Pound Rallies on the Back of BoE Minutes, Euro Directionless Going into the North American Trade

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Continues To Outperform, Australian Dollar Halts Advance

The New Zealand dollar remains the best performing currency against the greenback on Wednesday as it maintains the advance from earlier this week, while the Australian dollar halted the two-day advanced and slipped to a low of 0.8987 during the overnight trade. [Link]

Remain Short EURUSD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

[Link]

Stay short EURUSD

[Link]

EURUSD and AUDUSD Near Term Targets

Expectations are for the US Dollar advance to accelerate. A closer look at the EURUSD and AUDUSD reveals the near term potential for a USD rally. [Link]

Canadian Dollar Could Falter As Growth Outlook Dims

[Link]

Canadian Dollar Cross Pick 08.18.10

[Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/18

[Link]

Euro Resistance from 12935 to 13010

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Channel Put to Test

[Link]

British Pound Completing Flat Correction

[Link]

Japanese Yen Approaching 8480

[Link]

Crude Approaches Support Line

[Link]

Australian Dollar Secondary Top Possibly in Place

I favor the downside but there is not enough evidence to tighten risk from 9230. Additional strength would test 9145/65. (price ideally stays below 9090). [Link]

Gold 1250 is Potential Resistance

[Link]

Canadian Dollar 10250 a Potential Pivot

[Link]

Swiss Franc Stays Within Range

[Link]

Pound Rallies Subsequent to BoE Minutes, Euro Looks for Direction

The Bank of England released their minutes for the month of August, and the decision to keep rates unchanged at 0.50 percent was not unanimous for a third consecutive month. Meanwhile, construction output in the 16 member euro area advanced 2.7 percent in June. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.18

[Link]

British Pound Rallies on Bank of England Minutes, Euro Pares Advance

The British Pound surged to a high of 1.5669 during the European session as the Bank of England dropped it dovish outlook for inflation, and the exchange rate may continue to trend higher going into the U.S. trade as price action bounces back from the 200-Day SMA at 1.5498. [Link]

AUD/NZD Hourly Studies Deeply Oversold; Fresh Long Taken

[Link]

Rare Aussie and Kiwi Divergence Produces Attractive Buy Opportunity

On the whole, currencies remain well bid against the USD in Wednesday trade thus far, with only the Australian Dollar standing out as the sole underperformer. [Link]

Yen Strength Costs Japan Dearly; Dollar Poised to Extended Gains

[Link]

USDJPY: Positioning Continues to Hint at Gains Ahead

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.18

[Link]

Currency Markets Search for Direction, Pound May Look Past BOE Minutes

The British Pound may look past the Bank of England’s release of minutes from this month’s monetary policy meeting to trade with sentiment, but the risk landscape looks uncertain with market wanting of clear catalysts. [Link]

GBP/JPY Classical 08.18

[Link]

EUR/USD Classical 08.18

In the process of consolidating the latest sharp setbacks out from 1.3330, with the market stalling out ahead of 1.2700 for now. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.18

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.18

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AUD/USD Classical 08.18

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USD/JPY Classical 08.18

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USD/CHF Classical 08.18

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USD/CAD Classical 08.18

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NZD/USD Classical 08.18

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GBP/USD Classical 08.18

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Tech Talk 08.18

[Link]

More Consolidation Leaves Local Traders Sidelined for Now

[Link]

Loonie Stands Out on M&A Related Demand; Sterling Underperforms

The markets were content on shrugging of any soft data releases out of the US on Tuesday with little attention paid to some discouraging housing numbers, and more of the focus placed on stronger industrial production and capacity utilization. [Link]

Crude Oil Inventories in Focus, Gold Holds Steady Despite Rallying Equities

Crude oil will be taking note of the DOE inventory report on Wednesday, as the API survey showed extremely bearish stock movements. Gold seems to have resumed its long-term uptrend. [Link]

Japan's Leading Index Stabilises

[Link]

Dollar Edges Lower as Risk Appetite Swells and Economic Data Posts Mixed Results

Just as surely as the dollar’s consistent decline over the past two months was prone to a correction so too was the greenback’s five-day rally this past week ready for a break. This inevitability could have been deferred if there were enough fundamental momentum to bolster conviction in the risk aversion effort or if there was a specific catalyst for dollar buying. [Link]

FXbootcamp European Outlook 08/18/2010

[Link]

London Calling Aug 18

[Link]

US Dollar Retreats and Gold Stalls as Stocks, Crude Oil Recover From Support

The US Dollar has pulled back while gold stalled after yesterday’s bullish breakout as stocks and crude oil prices found support and rebounded higher, leading a recovery in risk appetite after last week’s losses. [Link]

Speculative Interests May have Shifted but Gold and Oil are Little Changed

There was significant evidence that risk appetite had charged higher through the US session; but conviction would slacken without a clear fundamental driver. Through it all though, neither gold nor oil would threaten major moves. [Link]

Risk Appetite Trends Rally but a Lack of Conviction Keeps Me Even

[Link]

Preview: Bank of England Minutes

The spotlight this week will be placed on the Bank of England Minutes after consumer prices in the U.K. remained stubbornly above the government’s target of 2.0 percent. As of late, consumer prices slowed to 3.1 percent in July from 3.2 percent the month prior, and Governor Mervyn King noted that inflation will likely be above 2 percent until the end of next year; however, the medium term view is prices below 2 percent. While Andrew Sentance is likely to dissent against the majority and call for a rate hike for the third successive month, market participants will closely monitor the banks longer term assessment of consumer prices. [Link]

EUR/GBP Channel Holds As Yield Expectations Fluctuate

The Euro pushed higher against the Pound on the day as the outlook for an ECB rate hike improved on the back of better than expected fundamental data and strong demand for Spanish and Irish sovereign debt. Successful bond auctions from two of the most beleaguered countries helped ease concerns that the debt crisis could re-emerge amplifying the positive sentiment and export data that crossed the wires. [Link]

Selecting an Indicator

Student’s Question: There are a lot of different indicators. What do you suggest we use as beginners? How many and what do you think? [Link]

A EURUSD and S&P 500 Rally Point to an Advance in Risk Appetite, But Will it Last?

[Link]

How do we Set Stops for Range Trading Strategies?

This installment of our Money Management series looks to the benchmark Relative Strength Index (RSI) strategy to determine proper trading techniques for range trading strategies. In our last article we used algorithmic trading software to find the optimal risk/reward profile for a trend-following strategy. It should come of little surprise that range trading systems are substantially different, and we hope to gain a better understanding money management for such different trading techniques. [Link]

Intraday Trading 08.17

GBP traders wait the Bank of England minutes for next moves as the GBPUSD is at the crossroads. [Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/17

[Link]

A Range Bound GBP/USD Offers Scalping Opportunity Ahead of BoE Minutes

The GBPUSD has started to consolidate following its recent test of trend line support as markets remain unsure of the direction of monetary policy. Inflation remaining above the BoE’s 3.0% threshold and signs that growth is sustaining has led markets to start pricing in a rate hike. [Link]

Japanese Yen Trendline is Key

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British Pound Exceptionally Bearish

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Swiss Franc Turns Up from Range Low (USDCHF)

[Link]

Canadian Dollar 10300/20 is Support (USDCAD)

[Link]

Australian Dollar Reverses at Initial Resistance

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Crude Rally is Corrective

[Link]

Euro Rally May be Complete

The EURUSD correction is in 3 waves and reversed just shy of 12935. While a larger and more complex correction is always possible, it’s would be foolish to dismiss the bearish evidence at this juncture. The EURUSD is vulnerable. [Link]

Gold Testing 61.8% Retracement

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Channel May Provide Resistance

[Link]

A Diming Growth Outlook Could Derail Euro

[Link]

Remain Short EURUSD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

[Link]

U.S. Producer Prices Rise for the First Time Since March

[Link]

U.S. Producer Prices Rises for the First Time Since March

[Link]

Gold

Gold appears poised to test the highs as buying interest pushes the market up. [Link]

GBP/USD

In spite of some overnight weakness, the GBP/USD daily chart shows higher highs and higher lows and remains above the 200-day Simple Moving Average. [Link]

British Pound Tests Rising Trend Line Ahead of BoE Minutes

[Link]

GBP Traders Shift Focus to BoE Minutes After U.K. Inflation Slows in July

Annualized consumer prices in the U.K. slowed in July to 3.1 percent from 3.2 percent the month prior. Indeed, the headline rate of inflation remained above the Bank of England’s target of 2.0 percent and lead the central bank’s Governor, Mervyn King to write a letter to the government explaining how policy makers will bring back consumer prices to its target. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.17

[Link]

GBP/USD: Trading the Bank of England Policy Meeting Minutes

The Bank of England refrained from releasing a statement following its interest rate decision earlier this month, and the meeting minutes could stoke increased volatility in the exchange rate as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. [Link]

Fresh Short Taken @0.9073

[Link]

Latest USD Setbacks Viewed as Corrective; Look to Buy Dips in Buck

The recovery in the currency markets over the past few sessions is certainly not to be unexpected following a bout of significant USD buying in the previous week. [Link]

Euro Benefits From Risk Sentiment, British Pound Pares Overnight Decline

The Euro extended the advance from the previous day and rallied to a high of 1.2915 during the overnight trade as investors increased their appetite for risk, and the single-currency may push higher going into the U.S. session as the economic docket is expected to reinforce an improved outlook for global growth. [Link]

German Investor Confidence Hits 16-Month Low

[Link]

EURUSD: Rebound Begins, Sell Entry Next

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Benefits From Risk Appetite, British Pound Halts Two-Day Rally

The New Zealand dollar continued to appreciate during the overnight trade and is the best-performing currency against the greenback on Tuesday, while the British Pound halted the two-day rally and fell back from a high of 1.5696. [Link]

UK Inflation Remains Above 3% Limit

[Link]

Euro-Zone Current Account Deficit Narrows in June

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.17

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USD/JPY Classical

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USD/CHF Classical 08.17

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USD/CAD Classical

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GBP/USD Classical 08.17

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.17

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EUR/USD Classical 08.17

In the process of consolidating the latest sharp setbacks out from 1.3330, with the market stalling out ahead of 1.2700 for now. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.17

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.17

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AUD/USD Classical 08.17

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US Dollar, Japanese Yen on the Defensive as Risky Assets Rebound

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen are set to give back some of last week’s advance against their major counterparts as US stock index futures rise, hinting that fading risk aversion will sap demand for the safety-linked currencies. [Link]

Scandi Daily 08.17

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TECH TALK 08.17

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US Dollar Diversification Even Apparent in Safe Haven Enviornment

The recovery in the currency markets was certainly not to be unexpected on Monday following a bout of significant USD buying in the previous week. [Link]

NZD/USD Classical 08.17

[Link]

Crude Oil Falls for the Fifth Session, Gold Rally Continues

Crude oil fell for a fifth session on Monday, but downside momentum is waning. Tuesday brings the release of U.S. economic figures that will either reestablish downside momentum or lead to a reversal. Gold continues to benefit from double dip fears. [Link]

Dollar Puts in for its First Loss in Six Days as Tempered Risk Trends Ease Safety Demand

London Calling Aug 17

[Link]

Australian Dollar Unmoved as RBA Confirms Flat Rate Hike Outlook

[Link]

US Dollar, Oil and Stocks Mark Time While Gold Breaks Out Higher

The US Dollar, crude oil and an index of global stock performance have entered consolidation at key technical barriers after last week’s volatility while gold prices have staged a delayed push higher. [Link]

Risk Trends Level Off but Crude Continues Lower as Growth Numbers Cool

A cooling in Japanese growth and disappointing read from the New York-regional manufacturing report would encourage crude to maintain trend. However, the combination of tempered trend and an advance in gold better reflects underlying risk currents. [Link]

Risk Trends Level Off but Crude Continues Lower as Growth Numbers Cool

RSI Divergence

[Link]

Jamie's Trading Video: 08/16

[Link]

FXCM Launches Forex Code Source for Programmers

FXCM Holdings, LLC , a global leader in online forex and CFD trading * , is pleased to introduce Forex Code Source, ( http://www.forexcodes o urce.com/index.php/Main_P a ge ) an online resource center where clients can download over 100 of the most popular technical indicators and several of the most consistent automated strategies. Forex Code Source also hosts a variety of educational materials covering how to program indicators and strategies for FXCM’s Strategy Trader trading platform, the IntelliChart Desktop package, and EFS compatible trading products. [Link]

A Break in Fundamental Event Risk Leads to a Break in EURUSD, Risk Trends

[Link]

Euro Looks to Fundamentals For Direction As Rising Inflation Puts ECB on Alert

The EUR/USD has started the week on a positive note as mild risk appetite and rising inflation have the pair looking to bring an end to its five day decline. Risk trends have increased in influence with the correlation between stocks and the pair firming to 48% from 42% a month ago. [Link]

A Lack of Fundamental Drive Could Translate into Stalled Trend

[Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the German ZEW Investor Confidence Survey

As market participants expect investor confidence in Germany to weaken for the fourth consecutive month in August, the data is likely to drag on the economic outlook, which could spark a selloff in the euro as market participants weigh the prospects for future growth. [Link]

GBPUSD Reverses Course From the Rising Trend Ahead of the July Inflation Report

[Link]

US Dollar Turns From Bearish Extreme

[Link]

Currency Correlations Tighten Through Risk and Dollar-Based Foundations

The markets are varied and extraordinarily nuanced between different assets and currencies; but there are underlying trends and fundamental drivers that can account for much of the market’s price action. One of the most recognizable currents amongst the FX crowd is the influence that risk appetite trends have on various currencies and pairs. [Link]

Currency Correlations Show Risk Appetite Trends Yielding to Fundamental Concerns

The following is our monthly correlations update for July. As we have stated time and again, correlations between different currency pairs will inevitably shift over time. [Link]

Bank Research Consensus Weekly 08.23.10

There's no mistaking the slowing in incoming US economic indicators, ranging from past consumer spending and income to employment and forward-looking orders. And we are mindful of the downside risks to growth, noted below. But extrapolating the recent deceleration in the economy into still-slower growth would be a mistake, in our view. Instead, we see a moderate pickup ahead, with the 2Q downshift marking the transition to a period of unspectacular 3-3.5% growth. Richard Berner & David Greenlaw, Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley [Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/16

[Link]

Swiss Franc Rallies, Canadian Dollar Lags Behind

The Swiss franc rallied across the board and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Monday, while the Canadian dollar lagged behind the rest of the major and pared the advance from the end of the previous week. [Link]

GBPUSD Extends Friday's Advance Ahead of the U.K. Inflation Report

GBP traders await the inflation report for July for next moves ahead of the BoE minutes on Wednesday. [Link]

Sell EURUSD at 1.2850 or better

[Link]

Swiss Franc Extremely Volatile

[Link]

Euro Resistance Begins at 12940

Resistance begins at 12935 and extends to 13070/13100 (61.8% / former support). Watch these levels for secondary tops. [Link]

British Pound Resistance at 15720

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Strength Should Prove Corrective

[Link]

Gold Reaches Tests 61.8% Level

[Link]

Canadian Dollar May Break Down Further

[Link]

Japanese Yen 8640 Defines Trend

[Link]

Australian Dollar Resistance at 9040

[Link]

Crude Tests 7500

[Link]

Forex Strategy Outlook: Breakout and Momentum Strategies Favored on Volatility

Noteworthy US Dollar and Japanese Yen gains have left forex options markets’ volatility expectations near their highest levels in a month, pointing to consequential price moves in the weeks ahead. Our trend-following Momentum and Breakout trading systems benefited considerably from the shift in market conditions. A continuation of recent price action would likely benefit those same strategies, and we remain bullish until further notice. [Link]

USD/JPY’s Test of Support May Present Scalping Opportunity

The USD/JPY remains in a downward trend reflecting the increasing bearish dollar sentiment which has the pair looking to rest-test support at 85.00. The psychological level has recently been breached but you have to go back fifteen years to find the last time the pair held below the psychological level. [Link]

EURUSD Halts 5-Day Decline as Inflation Accelerates at Fastest Pace in 20 Months

[Link]

Remain Short EURUSD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

[Link]

Economic Calendar

A relatively quiet week on the Economic Calendar highlighted by a few releases coming out of the UK. [Link]

USD/JPY

A series of lower highs and lower lows and an SSI reading of +4.17 means downtrend and to continue to look for selling opportunities. [Link]

Yen Support Could Be Limited As Fears of BoJ Intervention Grow.

[Link]

Euro Cross Pick 08.16.10

[Link]

Euro-Zone Inflation Rises 1.7 Percent in July

Euro-zone annualized consumer prices for the month of July rose to 1.7 percent from 1.4 percent the previous month on the back of rising energy prices. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.16

[Link]

Euro Halts Five-Day Decline, British Pound Pares Selloff To Hold Above 1.5600

The Euro bounced back during the overnight trade, with price action crossing back above the 100-Day SMA at 1.2794, and the exchange rate may hold steady going into the North American trade as the economic docket remains fairly light for Monday. [Link]

Swissie Outperforms Overnight on Safe-Haven Flows; But Move Could be Overdone

The US Dollar finally managed to mount a decent comeback in the previous week on the back of an escalation in risk aversion and renewed fears and uncertainty over the outlook of the global economy. [Link]

Long USD/CHF @1.0358

[Link]

EURUSD: Sell Entry Sought on Rebound

[Link]

Euro-zone CPI Rises on Energy

[Link]

Forex Fundamental Trends Monitor 08.16.2010

Currency market price action remains firmly anchored to broad trends in investor sentiment. Although the path of least resistance points to risk aversion, the safety-linked US Dollar and Japanese may pare some of their recent gains in the near term. [Link]

China Weekly 08.16

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.16

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USD/JPY Classical 08.16

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USD/CHF Classical 08.16

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USD/CAD Classical 08.16

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NZD/USD Classical 08.16

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GBP/USD Classical 08.16

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.16

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EUR/USD Classical 08.16

Last Wednesday’s violent pullback officially confirms short-term topping and opens the door for deeper setbacks over the coming sessions. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.16

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TECH TALK 08.16

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.16

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AUD/USD Classical 08.16

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Japanese Yen May Stumble as Risk Aversion Eases in European Trade

The Yen may stumble having rallied aggressively on carry trade liquidation after a disappointing Japanese GDP result in Asian trade with US stock index futures hinting a recovery in risk appetite is ahead in European hours. [Link]

Opening Comment 08.16

Crude Oil to Move on Growth Outlook, Gold a Safe Haven for Now

Crude oil will look to U.S. economic data, including key housing figures, to determine price direction in the coming week. Gold may move on the same data, only in the opposite direction. [Link]

Yen Soars as Japanese GDP Disappoints, Sinking Risk Appetite

[Link]

Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 08.16.10

US Dollar Forecast to Gain on an Unwind in Short Positioning Euro Traders will Turn to Financial Troubles with the Bull Spell Broken Japanese Yen To Face Slower Growth, Speculation For BoJ Intervention British Pound to Follow Stocks Lower on Renewed Risk Aversion Canadian Dollar Looks to Inflation Report For Next Moves Australian Dollar: Growth and Yield Demand Dependent Upon China New Zealand Dollar at Risk of Declines as S&P 500 Turns Lower Gold Consolidation May Persist But Risks Are to the Upside [Link]

Australian Dollar: Growth and Yield Demand Dependent Upon China

[Link]

Euro Traders will Turn to Financial Troubles with the Bull Spell Broken

[Link]

Dollar Closes its First Five-Day Advance Since April with Risk Aversion, Consumer Data Offering Support

In contrast to Wednesday’s remarkable rally on otherwise weak economic offerings, the dollar carved a modest range Friday despite a round of top-tier event risk. Nonetheless, the greenback would put in for its fifth consecutive advance for its best run since late April. [Link]

Gold Consolidation May Persist But Risks Are to the Upside

[Link]

British Pound to Follow Stocks Lower on Renewed Risk Aversion

[Link]

A Tepid Close and Lack of Drive Next Week Could Cool Trends

Friday would be an uneventful close to the week. I had tempered my expectations for the market impact that the European growth figures and US consumer-based data would have on price action; but the resultant lack of activity was even beyond what I could have imagined. However, the supposed improvement in the big-ticket German and Eurozone figures would help to offset the prevailing current that has recently exposed the financial cracks in the region that have been overlooked recently as the hope for capital returns blinded investors to real and fundamental troubles. Looking ahead to next week, there is very little scheduled event risk to go on. This could lead to one of two scenarios: we could see new trends keep direction with a focus on financial stability issues or a mild reversal on a lack of volatility. It is important to be prepared for both (and realize that there are other scenarios that could catch me off guard). For my active trades, I am keep the focus on the majors. My best performing position to this point is the EURUSD short; which is now at half my standard size after the pair put in for its fifth consecutive decline. A correction is highly probable after such a run; so a reentry at a 'better' price is an option that I will have to keep open to. In contrast, GBPUSD looks like it is coming up to technical support in a rising trend channel floor around 1.55. Follow through will have to come after a significant break; so this may be more than the pair can muster unless risk appetite really drops. With this in mind, I'm only a quarter of my normal size on this position until there is a confirmed break of 1.55. My long USDJPY setup is looking good; but the recent activity doesn't matter to me because I'm in this for the long-term (weeks to perhaps months). A break of the descending wedge of the past two-and-a-half months would certainly offer a short-term reversal to build on though. Finally, I have exposure in the crosses on that short AUDCAD. This pair isn't reversing as quickly as some others because this isn't a straight-forward responsive to risk trends. I am still in full size on this; but given my entry was so close to the reversal point, I should take half profit soon. Looking for potential future trades, this isn't a time to jump into tentative trends. USDCHF is unique because it is one of the majors that hasn't really decided direction - breaking from its EURUSD correlation to await a strong underlying trend in the dollar. A confirmed break (ie a 240 min or daily close) above 1.06 would fulfill my criteria here as long as there is a Dow move and fundamentals to support it. A little more unusual is my EURNZD setup. Having retraced a tentative long-term descending trendline breakout, we see that the rising trend of lows has stopped the pullback at 1.80. Continuation should technically be easy to forge; but I am simply too doubtful of the euro to go in until I find confirmation that risk trends will continue to deteriorate (and Europe isn't at the center of this fear). [Link]

US Dollar Forecast to Gain on an Unwind in Short Positioning

[Link]

Risk Trends Cool to End the Week but the Damage is Already Done

[Link]

Australian Dollar: Growth and Yield Demand Dependent Upon China

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar at Risk of Declines as S&P 500 Turns Lower

[Link]

Canadian Dollar Looks to Inflation Report For Next Moves

[Link]

Japanese Yen To Face Slower Growth, Speculation For BoJ Intervention

[Link]

Euro Traders will Turn to Financial Troubles with the Bull Spell Broken

[Link]

FX Technical Weekly 08-13

The long term US dollar bull has returned and there are opportunites to play the move through the Euro and Australian Dollar. [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 08-13

The EURGBP decline may accelerate towards the June low. After consolidating, the Yen crosses should continue lower. [Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/12

[Link]

British Pound Tests Channel Support

[Link]

Australian Dollar Still Bearish

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Rally is Corrective

[Link]

Canadian Dollar 10300 Remains Key

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Swiss Franc in Center of Range

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Gold Reaches Nearing Resistance

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Euro Rally is Corrective

The EURUSD rally off of the low is in 3 waves so I’ll stay bearish against 12910. [Link]

Crude Nears Channel Support

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Japanese Yen in Range

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EUR/USD Remains at the Crossroads as traders await U. of Michigan Confidence Report.

[Link]

U.S. Retail Sales Advance 0.4 Percent in July, Halts Two Month Decline

[Link]

Remain Short EURUSD; Pending USDJPY, GBPUSD

[Link]

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise in July Following Three-Month Decline

[Link]

Euro-Zone Economic Activity Tops Forecasts in the Second Quarter

Euro-zone trade balance in June exceeded economists’ expectations as figures rose to 2.4 billion euros from an upward revision of -3.3 billion euros in May, while economic activity in the 16 member euro area rose 1.0 percent in the second quarter. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Lose Ground Ahead of U.S. Event Risks

The Euro pared the overnight rally despite the better-than-expected 2Q GDP report for the region, and the drop in market sentiment may continue to drive the exchange rate lower going into the North American session as equity futures forecast a lower open for the U.S. market. [Link]

Currencies React Mildly to Stronger Overnight Data As Broader Global Macro Themes Dominate

Indeed the data overall was quite solid overnight. However, so long as market uncertainty remains elevated, the markets will be less focused on any one economic release and instead inclined to look sell any currency strength on rallies as safe haven flows dominate. [Link]

Europe Grows at Fastest Pace Since 2006, Germany Leads

[Link]

AUDUSD: Position to Sell on Rebound

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NZDUSD: Bounce Toward 0.72 Eyed for Short

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AUDUSD: Rebound to Yield Short Entry Setup

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USDCAD: Rally Stalls at Trend Line Resistance

[Link]

USDJPY: Candles Hint Bulls Set to Return

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GBPUSD: Sellers Take Over on Failure at 1.60

[Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 08.13

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EURUSD: Short Entry Sought on Retracement

[Link]

Euro May Rise on German, Euro Zone GDP and Risky Assets Rebound

The Euro may pare losses from earlier in the week as German and Euro Zone GDP figures show the fastest quarterly upswing in economic growth in over two years while US stock index futures point to a recovery in risk appetite. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 08.13

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USD/CHF Classical 08.13

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USD/CAD Classical 08.13

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NZD/USD Classical 08.13

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GBP/USD Classical 08.13

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.13

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EUR/USD Classical 08.13

Wednesday’s violent pullback officially confirms short-term topping and opens the door for deeper setbacks over the coming sessions. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.13

[Link]

German Q2 GDP Smashes Expectations

[Link]

Fed Stimulus Efforts Revive Fear and Dollar Bidding, European Economic and Financial Health the Next Step

Investor optimism has clearly deteriorated this past week. However, we are still at the point in the speculative transition where the markets can revive trend or lead to a new trend. The severity of the correction in benchmark risk-based asset classes can be partially attributed to the collapse of a one-sided market. [Link]

Opening Comment 08.13

Overall, the lackluster session of trade on Thursday was somewhat to be expected and unsurprising given the violent moves seen on Wednesday. [Link]

EUR/CHF Classical 08.13

[Link]

TECH TALK 08.13

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AUD/USD Classical 08.13

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Scandi Daily 08.13

[Link]

Crude Oil Falls on Growth Concerns, Gold Regains Safe Haven Status

Crude oil has lost 7% over the last three days as concerns regarding the U.S. economy reemerge. Gold has broken free of its downtrend and regained its safe haven status in the process. [Link]

New Zealand Dollar Soars vs Major Currencies as Retail Sales Outperform

[Link]

US Dollar May Pull Back as Stocks, Crude Oil Test Key Support Levels

The US Dollar may retrace lower after a sharp uptick in risk aversion sent the safety-linked currency broadly higher as benchmark risky assets including crude oil and an index of global stocks meet key support levels. [Link]

Dollar’s Rapid Advance Cools as the Market Awaits its Next Risk Catalyst, Tomorrow’s Data

What was the specific driver of Wednesday’s market-wide plunge in risk appetite? Some may point to scheduled economic data; but there was little that could claim a meaningful global impact to growth or financial stability readings. The exogenous financial headlines would have a little more influence; but there too, the news was more open to interpretation when it came to its sway over the global trends. [Link]

Crude Oil Inventories Watch: Week Ending 08/06/2010

[Link]

Dollar Rallies as Fed Sparks Risk Aversion to Offset Weak Rate Outlook

We are at a possible inflection point for the US dollar. For the past two months, the single currency has tumbled as the promise in relative growth, expectations for higher rates and demand for a safe haven have all diminished… [Link]

Jamie's Trading Plan: 08/12

[Link]

Euro Finds Support Below 12800

Additional weakness is possible in wave 5 towards 12725 and 12585 but it’s also possible that 5 waves are complete from the top. As such, a retracement (whether from here or a lower level) back towards 12935-13030 is expected. [Link]

The Tumble in Risk and EURUSD Ease as Traders Await European GDP Figures

[Link]

USD Traders Shift Focus to Inflation, U. of Michigan Confidence

[Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. Advance Retail Sales Report

A rebound in U.S. retail sales would encourage an improved outlook for the world’s largest economy as private sector consumption remains one of the leading drivers of growth, and the data could spark a bullish reaction in the dollar as the recovery gathers pace. [Link]

Japanese Yen 8625 Serves as Pivot

[Link]

Euro Finds Support Below 12800

[Link]

British Pound Nearing Channel Support Line

[Link]

New Zealand Dollar Tests Channel Support

[Link]

Gold Reaches 50% Retracement of Decline

[Link]

Swiss Franc Nearing End of Flat Correction

[Link]

Canadian Dollar 10300 is Key Level

[Link]

Australian Dollar Supported Ahead of 8900

[Link]

Crude Nears May Find Support at 7500

[Link]

European Stocks Mostly Slump, Though Buoyed by Optimism from ECB Monthly Bulletin Editorial for August

ECB Publishes August Monthly Report Euro-zone Industrial Production Falls Unexpectedly Irish Debt Default at Highest Risk in 17-Months [Link]

NZDUSD Looks to New Zealand Retail Sales, U.S. Inflation For Next Moves

[Link]

Highlights of the ECB Monthly Bulletin Editorial for August

[Link]

Forex Crowd Sentiment Points to US Dollar Rallies against Euro, British Pound

A substantive US Dollar bounce has been met with a noteworthy correction in forex crowd sentiment, and a shift in positioning gives us contrarian bias to call for further USD gains against the Euro and British Pound. EURUSD – Euro Likely to Fall Further Against US Dollar GBPUSD – British Forecast Turns Bearish on Sentiment USDJPY – Japanese Yen Outlook Remains Bullish USDCHF – Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar USDCAD – Canadian Dollar to Consolidate vs USD GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast to decline Against Japanese Yen View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum . [Link]

Forex Crowd Sentiment Points to US Dollar Rallies against Euro, British Pound

SWISS FRANC MAY STRENGTHEN AGAINST DOLLAR

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BRITISH POUND FORECAST TO DECLINE AGAINST JAPANESE YEN

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EURO LIKELY TO FALL FURTHER AGAINST US DOLLAR

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CANADIAN DOLLAR TO CONSOLIDATE VS USD

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JAPANESE YEN OUTLOOK REMAINS BULLISH

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BRITISH FORECAST TURNS BEARISH ON SENTIMENT

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Remain Short EURUSD; Pending USDJPY, USDCHF

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U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Climb, Signal Further Labor Market Weakness

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Euro, British Pound Continue to Extend Declines Against U.S. Dollar

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ECB Lowers 2011 GDP Growth Forecast; EUR/USD Stalls at the 100-Day SMA

The European Central Bank published their monthly report in which the central bank lowered their 2011 GDP growth forecast to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent. The ECB went onto add that growth in the third quarter is likely “better than expected.” [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.12

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EUR/GBP

A series of lower highs and lower lows defines the current downtrend seen on this daily chart of the EUR/GBP. [Link]

S&P500

All eyes remain on the US stock market this morning after yesterday's selling resulted in a sentiment change in the USD. [Link]

EUR/USD Slips Below 1.2800, European Central Bank Continues To See Subdued Price Growth

The Euro extended the decline from earlier this week, with the EUR/USD slipping to a fresh weekly low of 1.2798 during the overnight trade, and the exchange rate may continue to push lower going into the North American trade as the greenback continues to appreciate against most of its major currency counterparts. [Link]

Looking to Buy EUR/JPY

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Currencies Remain Under Pressure As Weak Global Economic Data Reinforces Investor Fear

Any attempts for a currency recovery in overnight trade have proved fleeting, with the rallies just seen as a formidable opportunity to add to safe haven long positions [Link]

GBPUSD: Short Entry Sought as Prices Reverse Lower

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Crude Oil to Rebound with Risky Assets, Gold Consolidation to Continue

Crude oil is likely to rebound as stocks lead spectrum of risky assets on a correction higher after yesterday’s selloff while gold consolidation is set to continue as traders weigh which side of the risk/safety split to place the yellow metal. [Link]

Euro-zone Industrial Production Declines Unexpectedly

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Is Yen Strength Due to China Diversification?

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.12

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US Dollar, Japanese Yen to Pare Gains as Stock Index Futures Erase Losses

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen are likely to pare gains as US index futures all but erase early Asian-session losses ahead of the opening bell in Europe, hinting a deeper correction of yesterday’s spike in risk aversion is ahead. [Link]

GBP/JPY Classical 08.12

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EUR/USD Classical 08.12

Wednesday’s violent pullback officially confirms short-term topping and opens the door for deeper setbacks over the coming sessions. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.12

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.12

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AUD/USD Classical 08.12

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Australian Dollar Sinks as Employment Data Disappoints Currency Markets

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NZ Manufacturing Shrinks for First in 11 Months, Dims Rate Hike Outlook

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USD/JPY Classical 08.15

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USD/CHF Classical 08.12

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USD/CAD Classical 08.12

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NZD/USD Classical 08.12

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GBP/USD Classical 08.12

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Dollar Marks its Biggest Rally this Year as Sentiment Crumbles on Fed’s, China’s Fundamental Stumbles

The financial headlines were splashed with the horrendous performance of global equities and commodities Wednesday; but the real story for the day was the activity in the currency market. Looking at the benchmark for stock activity (one of the most accepted proxies for investor sentiment), the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped a remarkable 2.49 percent. [Link]

Japanese Consumer Confidence Slips a Tad

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TECH TALK 08.12

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US Dollar Soars as Stocks, Crude Oil Plunge Amid Risk Aversion

The US Dollar has moved sharply higher to take out key resistance as an intense bout of risk aversion weighed on stocks and crude oil prices, boosting demand for the perennial safe-haven currency. [Link]

Jamie's Trading Plan: 08/11

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US Dollar Sentiment Shift Points to Continued Gains

A sharp rally in the US Dollar has been met with similarly pronounced shifts in FX Options market sentiment, and we believe that such moves point to continued USD gains. Our benchmark trend-following risk reversals system (see here for more) would have theoretically closed US Dollar short positions against the Euro and British Pound as of yesterday and today. [Link]

US Dollar Finds Momentum in its Reversal as Risk Appetite Collapses

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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 08-11

The Yen crosses have plunged. Allow for a bounce to resistance levels before weakness resumes. [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the Advance Euro-Zone 2Q GDP Report

As economic activity in the euro-area is expected to expand at a faster pace in the second-quarter, the GDP report is likely to instill an improved outlook for future growth, which could lead the single-currency to pare the sharp decline below 1.2900. [Link]

The Dollar Adds Momentum and My Positions Grow a Deeper Shade of Green

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European Stocks Slump as Dovish Commentary by Federal Reserve, Downward Revision of UK GDP by Bank of England Erode Recovery Sentiment

The Bank of England Revised Downwards its Growth Forecasts Chinese Inflation Outpaces Expectations; Growth to Cool Fed Reserve’s Dovish Commentary Spooks Investors [Link]

Intraday Trading 08.11

Risk aversion has regained its footing following dovish comments from both the FOMC yesterday and the BoE today. Looking ahead, we may continue to see the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen rally against most major currencies as invests seek a flight to safety. [Link]

AUD/USD Finds Support at the 200-Day SMA Ahead of the Australian Employment Report

The Australian economy is expected to have added another 20,000 jobs in July, which would mark the fifth consecutive monthly advancement. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at the eighteen month low of 5.1 percent. [Link]

Japanese Yen Benefits From Risk Aversion, Euro Slides Below 1.2900

The Japanese Yen rallied across the board following the rise in risk aversion and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Wednesday, while the Euro retraced the rally from earlier this month and tumbled to a low of 1.2884. [Link]

Euro Headed Lower in an Impulse

There is potential support at the current level (100% extension) but I favor shorts this week towards 12725-12800 [Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/11

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Australian Dollar Breaks Support Line

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New Zealand Dollar Short Term Target at 7025

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Japanese Yen Breaks 2009 High

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Gold Treading Water

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Swiss Franc Consolidates

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Canadian Dollar Objective Near Top of 2010 Range

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Euro Headed Lower in an Impulse

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British Pound Nearing Trendline

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Crude Nears Short Term Channel Support

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U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Widened to Highest Level Since October 2008

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U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Widened to Highest Level Since October 2008

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Euro Cross Pick 08.11.10

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Short EURUSD; Pending USDJPY

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BOE Cuts Growth Forecast, GBP/USD Eyes the 20-Day SMA for Support

The Bank of England slashed its growth forecasts for 2010 and 2011, and revised its forecast for inflation. The central bank said that consumer prices will likely remain above 2 percent until the end of next year; however, inflation will slow below the central bank’s target in 2012. [Link]

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index has bounced up off of the lows nicely in the last three days. [Link]

AUD/USD

This daily chart of the AUD/USD shows a series of higher highs and higher lows off of the May lows and is currently above the 200-day Simple Moving Average. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.11

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British Pound Falls as BoE Cuts Economic Forecast, Euro Pares August Rally

Dovish rhetoric from the Bank of England weighed on the British Pound, with the exchange rate extending the previous day’s decline to reach a low of 1.5666 during the European trade, but the overnight decline appears to be tapering off as price action hold above the 20-Day SMA at 1.5603. [Link]

US Dollar Rally Finally Starting to Make Sense

As we mentioned in our “ Opening Comment ” from earlier in the day, market participants had been taking time to digest the latest Fed rate decision and accompanying monetary policy statement in order to establish a clearer directional bias. [Link]

Looking to Buy Usd/Jpy

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UK Economy Adds Jobs at Fastest Pace in Two Decades

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.11

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USDJPY: Long Entry Sought at Major Low

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.11

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EUR/USD Classical 08.11

Could finally be showing signs of a short-term top at a minimum, with the market stalling out above 1.3300 and rolling back over. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.11

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.11

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AUD/USD Classical 08.11

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TECH TALK 08.11

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USD/JPY Classical 08.11

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USD/CHF Classical 08.11

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USD/CAD Classical 08.11

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NZD/USD Classical 08.11

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Opening Comment 08.12

We are reissuing our commentary from “Morning Slices” as we feel it is very appropriate as we head into Thursday trade. [Link]

Crude Oil Tests Levels Below $80, Gold Looks to the US Dollar

Crude oil fell notably on Tuesday as growth concerns reemerged. Traders will now look to the DOE inventory report set to be released on Wednesday. Gold continues to move inversely to the US Dollar. [Link]

GBP/USD Classical 08.11

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Scandi Daily 08.11

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British Pound Takes Center Stage as Central Bank Publishes Inflation Report

The British Pound will be in the spotlight in European hours as the Bank of England publishes an updated quarterly inflation report, the first to include an assessment of the government’s far-reaching plan to reduce the fiscal deficit. [Link]

Dollar Retraces Early Morning Gains but Fed’s Softened Policy Stance Not Likely to Curb Reversal

The US dollar has put in for a meaningful reversal – or has it? Calling a top or bottom for any market is explicitly risky. And, for an asset that has liquidity that runs as deep as the dollar, the effort is far more demanding because a shift in underlying positioning requires a colossal swing in confidence and capital. [Link]

UK Consumer Confidence at Lowest in 14 Months, Says Nationwide

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Dollar Probes Higher, Stocks and Oil Fall as Risk Aversion Reigns After FOMC

The US Dollar probed higher while crude oil and an index of global stock performance sold off after the US Federal Reserve offered a dovish view on the pace of US recovery, fueling broad-based risk aversion. [Link]

U.S. Equities Decline as Fed Debt Purchasing Plan Fails to Offset Weak Chinese Data

U.S. stocks closed lower today following bearish data overnight from China that sent the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lower by 1.2 percent. During the U.S. session, the Fed announced plans to provide economic stimulus through new Treasury purchases but the news failed to boost stocks from the red. [Link]

Jamie's Trading Plan: 08/10

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How do we Set Stops for Range Trading Strategies?

GBP/USD: Trading the U.K. Jobless Claims Change

As labor conditions in the U.K. are expected to improve for the sixth consecutive month in July, the fundamental developments are likely to reinforce an improved outlook the economy, and the data could drive the exchange rate higher as investors weigh the prospects for future growth. [Link]

The Dollar Marks a Meaningful Technical Break but Can it Find Follow Through?

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FOMC Says Rates to Remain Low for “Extended Period”; Reinvest MBS Securities in Treasuries

The Federal Open Market Committee announced that it will keep its fed funds rate target in the 0 to 0.25 percent range for an “extended period.” The statement also said that the recovery will be “more modest” than expected in the near term, while later adding that inflation will “likely be subdued for some time.” In, turn, most major currencies pushed lower against the greenback. [Link]

GBP/USD Tumbles Ahead of Quarterly Inflation Report, Jobless Claims

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European Stocks Retreat amid Continued Growth Concerns as FOMC Decision Looms

Concern Over Chinese Growth Hurts Stocks Uncertainty Regarding FOMC Decision Weighs on Risk Appetite [Link]

Do not chase EURUSD weakness

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Euro Headed to 12725

There is the possibility that the entire EURUSD rally from 11875 is retraced but an initial objective is 12725 (former resistance and support..top of wave c of first zigzag and bottom of wave b of second zigzag). [Link]

Jamie's Pick 08/10

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New Zealand Dollar in 3rd Wave Lower

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Australian Dollar Resistance at 9100/50

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Swiss Franc Headed to 10920

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Canadian Dollar Trend Now Down

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Euro Headed to 12725

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British Pound Plummets

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Crude Has Topped

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Gold Extending Weakness

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Japanese Yen Tests Support

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U.S. Dollar Rallies Across the Board Ahead of the FOMC Rate Decision

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Canadian Housing Starts at Slowest Pace in 2010

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U.K. Trade Deficit Narrows in June, GBPUSD Extends Yesterday's Decline

The trade deficit in the U.K. narrowed in June, with the adjusted goods trade gap falling to 7.4 billion pounds from a revised 8.028 billion t he previous month, the Office for National Statistics said today. [Link]

S&P500

The S&P500 stock index remains strong as it is closer to breaking out up through the 1133.10 resistance level than it is moving down through support. [Link]

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY SSI reading remains high with a ratio of 4.61 open buys for every open sell at FXCM. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.10

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U.S. Dollar Continues to Appreciate Ahead of FOMC Interest Rate Decision

The British Pound weakened against the greenback for the second-day, with the exchange rate slipping to a low of 1.5736 during the European trade, and the GBP/USD appears to have carved a short-term top as the daily RSI falls back from oversold territory. [Link]

Still Holding USD/CAD Long

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USD Finding Bids on Position Adjusting Ahead of FOMC Event Risk

Price action in Tuesday trade has gone much like one would think, with an oversold US Dollar finally finding some form of a bid as traders look to book profit and square up on currency longs ahead of the highly anticipated event risk in the form of the Fed rate decision later today. [Link]

UK Trade Deficit Narrows More Than Expected

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UK House Prices Rise Albeit at Slower Pace

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EURUSD: Bearish Reversal at Hand?

EURUSD has pushed aggresively higher after confirming a Head and Shoulders bullish reversal chart formation but prices are now turning lower having tested resistance at 1.3266, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 4/12-6/7 downswing as well as the upside target implied by measuring the distance between the head and neckline of the H&S formation. I will look for confirmation on a daily close below the bottom of a rising channel established from late June (now at 1.3199) to position for a selling opportunity. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 08.10

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TECH TALK 08.10

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German July CPI Rises as Downward Pressure is Offset

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USD/JPY Classical 08.10

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USD/CHF Classical 08.10

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USD/CAD Classical 08.10

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NZD/USD Classical 08.10

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GBP/USD Classical 08.10

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.10

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EUR/USD Classical 08.10

Could finally be showing signs of a short-term top at a minimum, with the market stalling out above 1.3300 and rolling back over. [Link]

Opening Comment 08.10

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Crude Oil Rises With Equities, Gold Falls on Dollar Rally

Crude oil got a boost from the continued uptrend in equities, as traders consider recent weak economic data as priced in. Gold fell after the greenback rallied strongly off support. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.10

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.10

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AUD/USD Classical 08.10

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Dollar, Yen Soar on Risk Aversion as Chinese Data Sinks Stocks in Asian Trade

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen rose amid risk aversion in overnight trade as Asian stocks sold off after disappointing Chinese economic data that spurred fears about the global recovery. More of the same is likely in European hours. [Link]

Scandi Daily

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US Dollar Rallies Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Dollar is rallying amid renewed risk aversion after bouncing off key technical support . Will the Fed interest rate decision on Tuesday aid the rally or send the greenback back to multi-month lows? [Link]

Bank of Japan Holds Monetary Policy Unchanged as Expected

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Financial Markets Stall at Key Technical Levels Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

The US Dollar, gold, crude oil and global stock markets have stalled at key technical levels ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement as traders wait for cues on where risk sentiment goes from here. [Link]

Australian Business Confidence Down to 14-Month Low, Says NAB

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Dollar Marks its Biggest Jump in Two Weeks, Though the Bear Trend is Still Intact Ahead of the Fed Decision

The Dollar Index notched its largest single-day advance since July 22 nd . That being said, this advance for the single currency did not develop from any specific fundamental catalyst nor did it conform to risk appetite trends (indeed, US equities were well in the green). [Link]

UK Retail Sales Disappoint on Slump in Confidence Says BRC

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UK House Prices Marked First Drop in a Year in July, Says RICS

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FXbootcamp European Outlook 08/10/2010

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Currency Correlations Tighten Through Risk and Dollar-Based Foundations

Forex Correlations (August): How Do Currencies Trade In Relation To Each Other? [Link]

Jamie's Trading Plan: 08/09

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How do we Use Money Management for Moving Average Forex Strategies?

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U.S. Equities Close Near 12-Week High as Investors Await Results of FOMC Meeting

Speculation Arising that Fed May Introduce Another Round of Quantitative Easing No data releases for U.S. Leaves Room for Recovery Optimism [Link]

Potential USD Bearish Sentiment Extreme

COT positioning warns of a bearish US dollar sentiment extreme. [Link]

The Potential for Many Trade Opportunties Traces back to the Dollar and Risk Trends

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Bank Research Consensus Weekly 08.09.10

There were several reasons for the turbulence. First, US data have been so miserable that many market observers have begun to question the robustness of the US recovery and even fear that the US central bank (Fed) might be forced to consider a new round of quantitative easing, i.e. extraordinary purchases in the government and mortgage bond markets. Second, US yields have hit new lows and the market has almost completely given up on rate hikes from the Fed within the next year. In contrast, European data have been surprising positively – perhaps because analyst expectations were at rock bottom – and the European bank ‘stress test’ at least did not make things any worse than they were. John Hydeskov, Senior Analyst, Danske Bank [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the FOMC Interest Rate Decision

As policy makers in the world’s largest economy anticipate to see a moderate recovery going forward, the Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to maintain its current policy in August, but the policy statement accompanying the rate decision is likely to stoke increased volatility in the U.S. dollar as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. [Link]

EUR/USD Maintains Narrow Range Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision

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European Stocks Jump Ahead of FOMC Meeting

German Trade Data Shows Bump in Exports Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence Surges [Link]

European Stocks Jump Ahead of FOMC Meeting

German Trade Data Shows Bump in Exports Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence Surges [Link]

British Pound Outperforms, New Zealand Dollar Lags Behind

The British Pound continued to outperform against its major currency counterparts and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Monday, while the New Zealand dollar pared Friday’s advanced and slipped to a low of 0.7276 as investors scaled back their appetite for risk. [Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/09

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Intraday Trading 08.09

Ahead of the FOMC rate decision, market participants will keep a close eye on the AUDUSD as price action looks to bounce off of the lower bounds of the rising trend line, while retail traders look for a correction in the USDJPY. [Link]

Euro 3120 is Key

Focus remains on 13420 although a top may be in place. A drop below 13120 would confirm as much. [Link]

Australian Dollar in No Man’s Land

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Euro 3120 is Key

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New Zealand Dollar Breaks Short Term Support Line

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Gold Exceptionally Bearish

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Japanese Yen Support at 8625

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British Pound Focus Remains 16130

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Canadian Dollar Drops from Resistance

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Crude May Have Topped

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Swiss Franc Plummets

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Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Downtrend Favors Momentum Strategies

Continued declines in forex market volatility expectations point to small currency movements in the weeks ahead. Yet a continued US Dollar downtrend suggests that key pairs may continue to set fresh lows and highs. The mix of low volatility and steady trends leaves us in a difficult position as far as trading strategy bias is concerned. On the one hand, range trading strategies tend to outperform during times of slower currency moves. On the other, our trend-following Momentum strategies have outperformed on continued US Dollar losses. [Link]

U.S. Dollar Little Changed Ahead of BoJ Policy Meeting

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Euro Cross Pick 08.09.10

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Pending EURUSD

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Economic Calendar

A full week on the Economic Calendar highlighted by two Central Bank meetings. [Link]

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD continues to move up as it is now testing the 1.6000 area. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Lose Ground as U.S. Dollar Rallies Across the Board

The Euro pared the advance from the previous week and slipped to a low of 1.3257 during the overnight trade, and the near-term rally appears to be tapering off as the daily RSI falls back from overbought territory. [Link]

German Trade Balance Widens in July

The trade balance in Europe’s largest economy widened in July to 14.1B from a revised 9.8B the month prior to exceed economists’ expectations of 12.0B. [Link]

Currencies Lack Direction Ahead of North American Open Following Boring Overnight Trade

The USD enters the new week under continued pressure, following the discouraging employment report released on Friday. [Link]

Still Holding USD/CAD Long

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NZDUSD: Double Top to Yield Short Entry Below 0.74?

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Forex Fundamental Trends Monitor 08.09.2010

Currency markets continue looking to risk appetite to lead exchange rates but the road ahead is clouded after a mixed response to last week’s US jobs report, with traders now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement amid a search for greater clarity. [Link]

Chinese Banks in Focus; CIC's Morgan Stanley Stake Sours - China Weekly 08.09

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Australian Home Loans Disappoint as Rate Hikes, Grants Weigh on Demand

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.09

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.09

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USD/JPY Classical 08.09

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USD/CHF Classical 08.09

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USD/CAD Classical 08.09

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Forex Markets Mark Time After US Jobs Report Yields Mixed Reaction

Forex markets were locked in uneasy consolidation in overnight trade as traders digested Friday’s mixed reaction to the US jobs report, with little ahead between now and Tuesday’s FOMC announcement to offer greater clarity. [Link]

NZD/USD Classical 08.09

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GBP/USD Classical 08.09

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.09

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EUR/USD Classical 08.09

Continues to extend gains to fresh multi-day highs above latest figure resistance at 1.3300, with the market adhering to a rising bull channel since early June. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.09

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Crude Oil May Consolidate, Gold Streak Reaches Nine Sessions

Crude oil may consolidate as abundant supplies cap prices below the mid-$80’s. Gold’s streak of sessions without losses is at nine. [Link]

AUD/USD Classical 08.09

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TECH TALK 08.09

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Opening Comment 08.09

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US Dollar May Follow Gold Higher as Stocks, Crude Oil Fall on Risk Aversion

US Dollar positioning is hinting that a reversal higher is ahead and gold has taken out critical resistance while stocks continue to tread water and oil declines, pointing to the likelihood of renewed risk aversion across financial markets. [Link]

Japan’s Current Account Surplus Unexpectedly Narrows as Exports Slump

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Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 08.09.10

US Dollar Slips on NFPs but Risk Trends Could Rally the Currency Euro Rally at Risk Ahead of German GDP Data, Major Technical Levels Japanese Yen May Extend Gains As Retail Traders Look For a Correction British Pound Torn Between Risk Trends, Monetary Policy Outlook Canadian Dollar: Will Risk Trends Override Weakening Fundamentals? Australian Dollar Momentum and Sentiment Point to Gains New Zealand Dollar to Look Past Retail Sales, Trade on Risk Trends Gold’s Best Run in Seven Months Still Lacks the Conviction of $2,000 [Link]

Gold’s Best Run in Nine Months Still Lacks the Conviction of $1,250

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US Dollar Slips on NFPs but Risk Trends Could Rally the Currency

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New Zealand Dollar to Look Past Retail Sales Data, Trade on Risk Trends

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British Pound Torn Between Risk Trends, Monetary Policy Outlook

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US Dollar Readies Rebound vs Major Currencies

EURUSD: Are Sellers Ready to Reclaim Momentum? GBPUSD: Bulls Clear Resistance, Challenge 1.60 USDJPY: Long Position Stopped Out, Bias Still Bullish USDCAD: Candlesticks Hint Upswing Ahead AUDUSD: Prices Clear Fib Level, Eying April Top NZDUSD: Double Top in Place Below 0.74 Figure? [Link]

NFPs Throw the Dollar for a Loop but Majors Still Show Potential

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Dollar Shows an Economic Rather than Risk Response to a Poor NFPs Showing

- Euro Volatility Dulled by US Employment Focus, Next Week’s GDP Figures Take Greater Responsibility - Canadian Dollar Stumbles on a Surprise Drop in National Employment - British Pound on the Verge of the Next Phase of its Rally with the BoE’s Quarterly Statement on Deck - Australian Dollar Little Surprised by RBA’s Quarterly Statement, Next Week’s Jobs Data Could Revive Volatility - Japanese Yen: Should the Market Simply Ignore the Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision Next Week? [Link]

Disappointing NFPs Curbs Growth Expectations and Pulls Crude Lower

Speculative interests fell quickly in step with fundamental expectations Friday with the release of high-level event risk – and the reaction impact was quite severe for oil. [Link]

Australian Dollar Momentum and Sentiment Point to Gains

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Canadian Dollar: Will Risk Trends Override Weakening Fundamentals?

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Japanese Yen May Extend Gains As Retail Traders Look For a Correction

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Euro Rally at Risk Ahead of German GDP Data, Major Technical Levels

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U.S. Equities Fall For Second Day on Weak Employment Data

U.S. stocks declined for a third day this week as private payrolls came out weaker than expected and total nonfarm payrolls declined as the U.S. government terminated the contracts of temporary census workers . Despite today’s losses, the Dow Jones Industrial Average still closed the week in the black, gaining 1.7 percent to 10,653. [Link]

NFPs Stirs Volatility but Defuses the Potential of a Big Reversal for the Dollar

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European Stocks Tumble as Data Weighs on Recovery Optimism

German, UK Industrial Production Falls Short of Forecasts U.S. Labor Market Continues to Shed Jobs, though Unemployment Holds [Link]

European Stocks Tumble as Data Weighs on Recovery Optimism

German, UK Industrial Production Falls Short of Forecasts U.S. Labor Market Continues to Shed Jobs, though Unemployment Holds [Link]

Canada's Ivey PMI Suggests Slower Growth in Coming Months

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Dollar Trying to Carve Out a Low

The EURUSD has broken higher and focus remains on 13420. [Link]

Jamie's Pick: 08/06

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Euro Topping; Resistance at 13400

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Australian Dollar Trading at Resistance

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Gold Resistance at 1220

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Japanese Yen Declines Impulsively

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Canadian Dollar Trading at Resistance

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Swiss Franc Stabilizes

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British Pound Topping; Resistance at 16130

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8320 Should Cap Crude

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New Zealand Dollar Stuck in Range

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Pending AUDUSD, GBPUSD

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U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Tumble 131K in July

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls fell 131K in July after tumbling a revised 221K the month prior amid economists’ forecasts for a drop of 65K. Private employment rose 71K versus expectations of 90K. Meanwhile, the dismissal of census workers contributed to a 202K drop in government payrolls. Going forward, we may continue to see the U.S. dollar lose steam following the dismal report. Nonetheless, the USDJPY has fallen to a fresh yearly low and the southern journey may persist into the North American trade, accompanied by a rise in the EUR/USD. [Link]

Still Holding USD/CAD Long

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British Pound, Euro Weighed By Unexpected Decline in Business Outputs

The British Pound pared the previous day’s advance and slipped to a low of 1.5839 during the European trade as the economic docket reinforced a weakened outlook for future growth, and the GBP/USD may continue to trend lower going into the end of the week as the labor market in the world’s largest economy is expected to deteriorate for the second consecutive month in July. [Link]

Currencies in Holding Pattern Ahead of NFPs

Price action in Thursday trade was a non-event, and for us, extremely disappointing, with the USD showing absolutely no follow through from its Wednesday rebound against the major currencies. [Link]

Russia Caves to Pressure Banning Wheat Exports; Wheat Futures Soar

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced a temporary ban on wheat exports after a drought destroyed a substanti al amount of the country’s crop despite having initially promised to keep grain exports stable. [Link]

EURUSD: Bearish Momentum Set to Resume?

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Daily Sound Bites 08.06

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USD Graphic Rewind 08.06

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Scandi Daily 08.06

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Opening Comment 08.06

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USD/JPY Classical 08.06

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USD/CHF Classical 08.06

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USD/CAD Classical 08.06

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NZD/USD Classical 08.06

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GBP/USD Classical 08.06

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.06

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EUR/USD Classical 08.06

Looks to have finally stalled out to end a sequence of 9 consecutive daily higher lows after the market failed to extend to fresh multi-day highs beyond 1.3260 and reversed sharply back below Tuesday’s low. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.06

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.06

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AUD/USD Classical 08.06

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Currency Markets to Look Past European Data, Focus on US Jobs Report

Currency markets are likely to look past the economic calendar despite a busy docket of scheduled event risk in European hours, with the spotlight firmly centered on July’s US employment report due late into the session. [Link]

Crude Oil Uptrend Intact, Gold Win Streak Ends

Crude oil is holding onto this week’s solid gains ahead of Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls numbers. The commodity remains close the top of an 11-month range. Gold’s win streak finally ended on Thursday, but the metal has been strong this week. [Link]

TECH TALK 08.06

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NZDUSD: Double Top in Place Below 0.74 Figure?

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AUDUSD: Prices Clear Fib Resistance, Eying April Top

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USDCAD: Hammer Candlestick Hints Upswing Ahead

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USDJPY: Long Position Stopped Out, Bias Still Bullish

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GBPUSD: Bulls Clear Key Resistance, Challenge 1.60

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The Climb in Risk Appetite and Carry Interest Still Exposed to China, Europe and Speculative Runs

Most of the market’s favorite investor sentiment barometers are putting forth strong readings of optimism. Whether we look to the S&P 500, the safe haven US dollar or commodity-favorite crude; the reading is the same. However, the high correlation between these various asset classes (while itself is a strong tool for measuring conviction) can also distort the outlook for risk appetite trends. [Link]

EUR/USD: Are Sellers Ready to Reclaim Momentum?

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Dollar, Stocks and Key Commodities Brace for US Jobs Report

The US Dollar, global stock markets, oil and gold have all stalled at key technical barriers ahead of the upcoming release of July’s US employment figures as risk sentiment continues to dominate financial markets. [Link]

Dollar Catches a Break from its Constant Pummeling as the Nonfarm Payroll Storm Approaches

Just in case someone mistook the bounce from the dollar yesterday as a sign that the currency was recovering, we reminded today that this is merely an effort at congestion with another slip through Thursday’s session. [Link]

Crude’s Breakout Run Stalled as Market Caught in the Pull of NFPs' Gravity

Given the light mix of scheduled event risk today, the heavy round of data scheduled for tomorrow and a notable pause in risk appetite trends; it should come as no surprise that crude would win little progress. [Link]

U.S. Equities Close Lower on Jobless Claims, Retail Sales

U.S. stocks declined for a second day this week as an unexpected rise in American initial jobless claims and continuing claims stoked concerns that the U.S. recovery is stalling. The weakness in equities caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to dip to 10674, while the S&P 500 fell to 1125. [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the Change in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

The U.S. dollar is likely to face increased volatility over the next 24 hours of trading as the labor market in the world’s largest economy is expected to weaken further in July, the data is likely to weigh on the outlook for future growth as policy makers see a moderate recovery going forward. [Link]

Jamie's Trading Plan (pre-NFP): 08/05

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Weekly Spotlight: Could Non-Farm Payrolls Fall By 65K?

The spotlight this week will be placed on the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls report. As of late, economists are forecasting the labor market in the world’s largest economy to decline by 65,000 in July after payrolls dropped a massive 125,000 the month prior. Following Ben Bernanke’s speech on Monday, he noted that there will be “significant time” before 8.5 million jobs are restored. This announcement trails the Fed Chairman announcement last week in which he said that there remains “unusual uncertainty” in economic activity. In turn, investors should not rule out a disappointing NFP report, which will validate additional gains in the EUR/USD. [Link]

Could Non-Farm Payrolls Fall By 65K?

EURUSD and GBPUSD Maintain Technical Form Through Rate Decisions to Focus on Friday's NFPs

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Major European Indices Finished Mixed Despite Thursday’s Notable Event Risk

Encouraging German Factory Orders Fail to Move Markets ECB, BoE Keep Overnight Lending Rates Steady [Link]

Dollar Trying to Carve out a Low

Structurally, the EURUSD rally counts as a double zigzag (complex) correction and could be complete. However, the 2 zigzags would be equal at 13420, which is a level to watch in the event of additional strength. 13050 is potential support. [Link]

Intraday Trading 08.05

Ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls report, market participants will keep a close eye on the USDJPY, USDCAD, and AUDUSD, as all three pairs seem to be on the verge of a pivotal breakout. [Link]

The USD/JPY May Become Scalping Target Ahead of NFP’s

The USD/JPY has been extremely sensitive to U.S. fundamental data evidenced by today’s spike lower on the back of the disappointing initial jobless claims report. [Link]

US Dollar Sentiment Favors Losses Ahead of Pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Choppy U.S. dollar price action has led to mixed Forex trading crowd sentiment, moderating our conviction in cal ling for further USD weakness. EURUSD – Euro Forecast Calls For Gains Against Dollar GBPUSD – British Pound Likely to Rally Further USDJPY – Japanese Yen Outlook Bullish on Sentiment USDCHF – Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast to Appreciate Against Greenback GBPJPY – British Pound Direction Unclear Against Japanese Yen View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum . [Link]

Jamie's Trade: August 5th

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British Pound Topping; Resistance at 16130

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Japanese Yen Declines Impulsively

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Euro Topping; Resistance at 13400

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Gold Resistance at 1220

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Swiss Franc Stabilizes

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Canadian Dollar Trading at Resistance

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Australian Dollar Trading at Resistance

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8320 Should Cap Crude

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Dollar Trying to Carve out a Low

New Zealand Dollar Stuck in Range

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NFP

I would once again like to remind traders of what is happening this Friday, August 6th at about 830AM Eastern, which is when the US Department of Labor will release the most anticipated news report of the month, the US Nonfarm Payrolls. [Link]

Euro Cross Pick 08.05.10

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Take profits on USDCAD; Pending GBPUSD

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Pound Looks Heavy As Yield Expectations Dim

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EURO FORECAST CALLS FOR GAINS AGAINST DOLLAR

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US Dollar Sentiment Favors Losses Ahead of Pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls Report

SWISS FRANC MAY STRENGTHEN AGAINST DOLLAR

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BRITISH POUND DIRECTION UNCLEAR AGAINST JAPANESE YEN

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CANADIAN DOLLAR FORECAST TO APPRECIATE AGAINST GREENBACK

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JAPANESE YEN OUTLOOK BULLISH ON SENTIMENT

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BRITISH POUND LIKELY TO RALLY FURTHER

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ECB Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged in August, Trichet Says Central Bank Remains Cautious

The European Central Bank kept its key overnight lending rate unchanged at 1.00 percent for the 15th consecutive month as inflationary measures remain subdued. Thus far, the central bank has purchased approximately 60 billion euros of government bonds, but during Jean-Claude Trichet’s press conference, the bank head noted that a reduction in purchases should not be surprising. [Link]

AUD/USD

The AUD is gaining strength, especially against the USD as this daily charts shows. [Link]

European Central Bank Says Interest Rate Remains “Appropriate,” Bank of England Maintains Policy

The European Central Bank held the interest rate at 1.00% and said monetary remains “appropriate” as President Jean-Claude Trichet expects to see an “uneven” recovery, and the Governing Council may look to support the economy throughout the second-half of the year as the outlook remains clouded with “uncertainty.” [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.05

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Sell EUR/USD@1.3250

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BoE Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged in August

As widely expected, the Bank of England left its key overnight lending rate and asset purchase program unchanged in August. The British pound was relatively unchanged following the rate decision as traders priced in a zero percent chance for a rate hike prior to the decision, according to the Credit Suisse overnight index swaps. Market participants will now shift their focus to the Bank of England minutes which are expected to be released on Wednesday August 18th. Meanwhile, the ECB also kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged , while Jean-Claude Trichet said that the central bank remains cautious. [Link]

USD Fails to Establish Additional Momentum Ahead of North American Open

Price action in Wednesday trade was more than interesting with the major currencies notably diverging from the commodity bloc. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 08.05

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NZDUSD: Double Top to Offer Short Entry

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USD/JPY Classical

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USD/CHF Classical 08.05

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US Dollar Selling Pauses as Stocks Test May Highs, Gold Meets Resistance

US Dollar selling has paused for the first in four sessions above April’s as stocks stall ahead May’s swing top, seemingly waiting for underlying trends in risk appetite to decide where the safety-linked currency goes from here. [Link]

TECH TALK 08.05

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.05

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EUR/USD Classical 08.05

EUR/JPY Classical 08.05

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.05

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AUD/USD Classical 08.05

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Euro, British Pound Brace for Impact as ECB, BOE Ready Rate Decisions

The Euro and the British Pound consolidated in Asian hours with traders bracing for volatility ahead of interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, with the UK outcome likely to bring a greater stir than its continental counterpart. [Link]

Crude Oil Holdings Steady Despite Elevated Inventories, Gold Win Streak Reaches Six

Petroleum inventories in the U.S. are now at 10-year highs, while gasoline and distillate inventories are at record seasonal levels. Nevertheless, crude oil continues to hold firm on optimism regarding emerging market growth and the consequent impact on oil demand. Gold tested $1200, but backed down. [Link]

USD/CAD Classical 08.05

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Crude Oil Inventories Watch: Week Ending 07/30/2010

Inventories The Department of Energy reported that in the week ending July 23, 2010, US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels , distillate inventories increased by 2 . 1 million barrels, and total p etroleum inventories increased 6 . 1 million barrels. Total petroleum inventories are now above the year ago level and at 10-year highs, while gasoline and distillate inventories are at or near record seasonal levels. [Link]

Crude Oil Holdings Steady Despite Elevated Inventories, Gold Win Streak Reaches Six

Opening Comment 08.05

Price action in Wednesday trade was more than interesting with the major currencies notably diverging from the commodity bloc. [Link]

NZD/USD Classical 08.05

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GBP/USD Classical 08.05

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Scandi Daily 08.05

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Dollar Finds Little Support from Data, Fed Conviction or Risk Trends

The dollar’s weakness over the past two months should come as little surprise to those that follow fundamental trends. There are three general fundamental elements that the benchmark currency typically follows when seeking direction and conviction… [Link]

Dollar Finds Little Support from Data, Fed Conviction or Risk Trends

New Zealand Dollar Sinks as Jobs Report Sours Rate Hike Outlook

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Dollar Finds Breathing Room with the First Advance in Six Days, But is it a Reversal?

After five consecutive daily losses, it was simply a matter of time before the dollar would put in for a bounce. However, for traders, this isolated advance should not spell the end of a very aggressive two-month decline much less the beginning of a meaningful recovery. [Link]

Jamie's Trading Video: August 4th

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Forex Technical and Fundamental Forecasts for August

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 08-04

The Yen crosses will likely take out recent highs in the next week. There are short term (bearish) and long term (bullish) EURCAD setups. [Link]

Pound Looks to Risk for Direction As Yield Expectations Dim

The GBP/USD fell during European trading on the back of a weaker than expected service sector report which along with the weaker than expected PMI constriction release has cast doubt on the sustainability of the U.K. recovery. A string of strong fundamental releases had started to raise the outlook for a rate hike generating sterling support. [Link]

Watch for EURUSD Test of 1.3500

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US Growth Potential is Offset by Chinese Stress Test Fears and Inventory Numbers to Freeze Oil Prices

Energy traders were not lacking for fundamental fodder upon which they could determine their positioning and conviction. However, as it would happen, there were two diametrically opposing brands of event risk that would lead the commodity to trade relatively unchanged for the day [Link]

European Equities Mixed, Buoyed by U.S. Recovery Optimism

European Equity Indices Begin Lower But Finished Mixed by Day’s Close Tomorrow’s Event Risk Should Prove to be Market Moving for Equities [Link]

FXCM Launches FXCM Labs for Beta Testers

New York, August 4, 2010— FXCM , one of the world’s largest online forex and CFD brokers, is pleased to introduce FXCM Labs ( http://www.fxcm.co.uk/fxcm-labs.jsp ) an online research center that grants clients exclusive access to FXCM products and services still in the development stages. [Link]

GBP/USD: Trading the Bank of England Interest Rate

As market participants speculate the Bank of England to maintain its current policy in August, the British Pound may come under pressures as interest rate expectations falter. [Link]

A Tenative Risk Reversal Should Raise Caution Not Immediate Trades

It was inevitable. At the very least a pause in the dollar's swan dive was likely under the auspices of a cooled advance in risk appetite trends. We saw the standard bearers for investor sentiment (equity indexes) stall and backtrack a little yesterday while the greenback extended its decline. Today, equities are back in the green; but there is a clear lack of conviction. This will help defer an immediate assault on the dollar; but it will not alleviate the pressure. That being said, there looks to very attractive setups in playing a potentail bullish reversal for the single currency - especially with EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF. However, it is important to approach these early technical setups and await some kind of confirmation before simply jumping in. This is particularly sound advice considering we have heavy event risk over the coming few days, including but not limited to: NFPs, the BoE and ECB rate decisions. For potential setups, the three aforementioned majors top my list. From a technical perspective, EURUSD will look far better when it crosses 1.30, GBPUSD after clearing 1.58 and USDCHF on a drive above 1.0650. However, it is just as critical to seek fundamental confirmation of such a development as it is to justify the technical side. Other interesting setups that are garnering my attention are in some of the often overlooked crosses. A missed opportunity for the moment, GBPCHF surged through 1.6575 this morning and didnt' slow down. A retracement and confirmation of new support at this level may encourage me to get long; but that will take some time. AUDCAD once again tested the 0.9350 level and failed. I'm waiting to see if we can get a channel reversal here. In place of the AUDUSD setup I was looking at yesterday, EURAUD is on the verge of slipping below a well-worn pivot level at 1.4350. A drop below this figure could open the door to 1.40. Another euro cross to take note of is EURCAD. A recent congestion pattern has developed at the top of a loose range. A break of the 20-day SMA could instigate a tumble; but fundamental support is essentail for momentum. As for my active trades, my USDJPY long is still in place; but I didn't get to the even 85 figure just yet to build this up to a half size position. This is not yet a true reversal. New to the mix is a short CHFJPY trade. Finally breaking three weeks of congestion, this pair has slipped below 82 (my entry) and is looking to retrace the June/July ascending trend channel and reinstate the larger bear trend. [Link]

Intraday Trading 08.04

Overnight the next 24 hours, the GBPCAD is poised to push lower to test 1.6160 ahead of the BoE rate decision, while market participants will keep a close eye on the AUDUSD, with focus on a break below the rising trend line. [Link]

Jamies Pick 0804

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Dollar / Yen Closing in on 2009 Low

I continue to favor the downside to a new low beneath 8480 against 8690. A move above there would suggest additional bullish potential towards 8800-8900. [Link]

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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Euro / US Dollar

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Light Crude

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

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British Pound / US Dollar

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US Dollar / Japanese Yen

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Gold

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc

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EUR/GBP Becomes Scalping Target Ahead of BoE, ECB Decisions

The EUR/GBP has settled into a tight range as the two European currencies have seen their correlation peak as the outlook for the U.K. and Euro-Zone economies have considerably brightened. Improving fundamentals have made markets forget about their concerns over sovereign debt and the banking sector. [Link]

U.S. Dollar Range-Bound Ahead of ECB, BoE Rate Decisions

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British Pound Cross Pick 08.04.10

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US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Points Towards Expansion in Service Industry

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Remain Short USDCAD

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USDJPY Looks Poised fro Reversal

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EUR vs GBP

Identifying the USD as being weak is just one step in finding a way to take advantage of that opinion. [Link]

EUR/GBP

The EUR/GBP continues to fall based on the series of lower highs and lower lows on this daily chart. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Pull Back as Risk Appetite Wanes

The Euro slipped to a low of 1.3182 during the overnight trade following the shift in market sentiment, and the single-currency may continue to lose ground going into the North American session as investors scale back their appetite for risk. [Link]

Euro-Zone Retail Sales Holds Flat in June, U.K. House Prices Unexpectedly Rises

House prices in the U.K. unexpectedly pushed higher during the month of July, halting the 3 month decline, the Halifax in London said today. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 08.04

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GBPUSD: Sidelines Favored as Rally Persists

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Long USD/CAD @1.0245

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Euro Pulled Higher on Building Risk Appetite, ECB and NFP’s Could Derail

The EUR/USD started the week in a tight range as the pair was up against major Fibonacci resistance, until a better than expected U.S. manufacturing report fueled prevailing risk appetite. The pair would surge on the increased optimism as the report came on the heels of strong manufacturing data from the Euro-zone and the U.K. [Link]

AUD/USD: Trading the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

As the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to hold borrowing costs steady for the third consecutive month in August, the central bank may see scope to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout the second-half of the year, which could stoke a sell-off in the high-yielding currency as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. [Link]

Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Losses Favor Trend Trading Strategies

A noteworthy decline in forex market volatility expectations points to slower price moves in the week ahead, favoring lower-volatility trending strategies amidst steady US Dollar declines. Normally we would claim that the drop in vols favor Range trading styles—buying currencies that have fallen and selling those that have rallied. Yet our own Range1 and Range2 algorithmic trading strategies have done poorly amidst strong trends in the Euro/US Dollar and other key pairs. [Link]

Bank Research Consensus Weekly 08.02.10

A cursory glance at the headlines on central bank actions over the recent past would seem to suggest that the global tightening cycle is in full swing. Over the past week alone, the central banks in Brazil, India and Israel raised interest rates, and New Zealand is expected to follow tomorrow. Since the global recession ended around the middle of last year, no less than 14 out of the 32 central banks we cover regularly have started to raise policy rates . Joachim Fels , Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley [Link]

Gooses Trading Plan-August 2nd

The AUDUSD has reached estimated resistance of 9140 as has the EURUSD at 13185. The Dow, Crude, and Gold should complete corrective advances this week. [Link]

GBP/USD’s Test of Resistance Could Present Scalping Opportunity

The pound extended its current bullish rally on the back of broader risk appetite and a brighter outlook for the U.K. economy. Indeed, the final reading for the PMI manufacturing show the sector slowed less than expected to 57.3 versus 57.0. [Link]

Intraday Trading 08.02

During the next 24 hours, market participants will closely monitor the NZDUSD as the pair continues to trend higher, and a break below the lower bounds of the channel may create downside risks towards 0.7275 [Link]

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

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Gold

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc

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British Pound / US Dollar

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

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Euro / US Dollar

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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US Dollar / Japanese Yen

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Light Crude

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EURUSD Technicals for August 2nd

The EURUSD is now nearly 1300 pips off of its June low and has slightly exceeded the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 15144. Estimated resistance is 13185 (a confluence of Fibonacci extensions). [Link]

JamiePick 0802

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Short USDCAD

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Euro Cross Pick 08.02.10

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U.S. Dollar Weighed by Risk Appetite - DailyFX August 02, 2010

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Daily Sound Bites 08.02

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U.K. Manufacturing Slows in July

Manufacturing in Great Britain slowed in July from a revised 57.6 to 57.3 to mark the lowest level since March, the London-based Markit said in an e-mailed statement today. [Link]

British Pound Breaks Through 1.5800, Euro Pares Friday’s Decline To Hold Above 1.3000

The British Pound rallied against the greenback for the eighth day, with the exchange rate rising to a high of 1.5818, and the GBP/USD may continue to trend higher over the near-term as the Bank of England drops its dovish outlook for inflation. [Link]

my story

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Sterling Prime Beneficiary of Fresh Bout of Risk Appetite

The markets have been all over the place in Monday trade thus far, with some major divergences from familiar correlations. [Link]

USDJPY: Remain Long, Targeting 88.80

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China Weekly 08.02

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Crude Oil Hovers Under Resistance, Gold Tries to Regain Composure

Increasing risk appetite across the financial markets is supportive of the ongoing crude oil rally, but the coming week is not without risks. Gold has been rebounding, but investors remain on the sidelines for now. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 08.02

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USD/JPY Classical 08.02

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USD/CHF Classical 08.02

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USD/CAD Classical 08.02

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NZD/USD Classical 08.02

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GBP/USD Classical 08.02

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TECH TALK 08.02

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GBP/JPY Classical 08.02

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EUR/USD Classical 08.02

The rally continues with the market accelerating beyond latest barriers by 1.3100 thus far. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 08.02

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EUR/CHF Classical 08.02

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AUD/USD Classical 08.02

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Scandi Daily 08.02

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Opening Comment 08.02

Currencies remain well bid across aboard at the start of the week and it will be interesting to see how the markets respond to a week full of US data and central bank event risk. [Link]

US Dollar, Japanese Yen to Extend Losses as Risk Appetite Firms

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen may extend Asian-session losses into European trade as risk appetite remains well-supported, weighing on the safety-linked currencies against the spectrum of their major counterparts. [Link]

New Zealand Dollar Vulnerable as Rate Expectations Falter

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Australian Dollar Rally Could Falter As RBA Holds Interest Rate Steady

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Canadian Dollar May Falter On Weakening Global Picture

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Japanese Yen May Strengthen as Traders Seek Safety

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Euro To Face Headwinds As ECB Likely To Keep Exit Strategy On Hold

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US Dollar Could Be Dragged Lower On Rising Unemployment

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British Pound Volatility Ahead on Bank of England Rate Decision

British Pound Volatility Ahead on Bank of England Rate Decision Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral - Technical Positioning Hints Pound to Reverse Lower vs US Dollar - Rates Outlook Key as British Pound Clings to UK-US Libor Spread The British Pound may turn volatile in the week ahead as the Bank of England delivers the first rate decision based on an updated inflation outlook taking into account the government’s austerity budget. [Link]

Dollar Ends Flat As Strong Manufacturing and Consumer Sentiment Data Offset Slower Pace of Growth

• Dollar Ends Flat As Strong Manufacturing and Consumer Sentiment Data Offset Slower Pace of Growth • Euro to Face Whipsaw Price Action Ahead of ECB Rate Decision • British Pound Ends the Week as the Second Best Performing G10 Currency Against U.S. Dollar • Canadian Dollar Remains Bounded by Narrow Range as GDP Expands in May • Japanese Yen Extends Rally as Traders Seek Flight to Safety [Link]

FX Technical Weekly 07-30

Formation of a US Dollar low is proving elusive. It is best to stand aside and wait for the bottoming scenario to play out. [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07/30

The Euro crosses are mixed while the Yen crosses show signs of topping. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Lose Ground as Market Sentiment Falters, U.S. 2Q GDP on Tap

The Euro pulled back on Friday and slipped to a low of 1.2980 during the overnight trade as investors scaled back their appetite for risk, and the shift in mark sentiment could lead the EUR/USD to retrace the advance from earlier this week as the economic docket is expected to show the world’s largest economy expanding at a slower pace in the second quarter. [Link]

0730 JamiePick

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Pending USDCAD

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NZDUSD: Bearish Reversal Hinted

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GBP/USD: Bearish Reversal Hinted at Channel Top

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NZD/USD: Positioning Turning Increasingly Bearish

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USD/CAD: Candles Hint Upswing Within Triangle Setup

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EUR/USD: Selling Opportunity Ahead as Rally Clears 1.30

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USD/JPY: Remain Long as Prices Threaten Stop-Loss

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AUD/USD: Bulls Challenge Resistance Above 0.90

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Crude Oil Rises on Bargain Buying, Gold’s Fate In the Hands of Investors

A very interesting week with regard to commodities saw crude oil inventories surge to levels just shy of 10-year highs and gold ETF holdings plummet 500,000 troy ounces. Nevertheless, the near-term outlook for both commodities is highly uncertain. [Link]

Japanese Yen Poised to Extend Gains as Risk Aversion Continues

The Japanese Yen outperformed overnight as carry trades followed stocks lower after a round of disappointing economic data. Equity index futures are sharply lower, hinting more of the same is ahead in European hours. [Link]

Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 08.02.2010

US Dollar Could Be Dragged Lower On Rising Unemployment Euro To Face Headwinds As ECB Likely To Keep Exit Strategy On Hold Japanese Yen May Strengthen as Traders Seek Safety British Pound Volatility Ahead on Bank of England Rate Decision Canadian Dollar May Falter On Weakening Global Picture Australian Dollar Rally Could Falter As RBA Holds Interest Rate Steady New Zealand Dollar Vulnerable as Rate Expectations Falter Gold Recouples with Risk Sentiment, Eyes US Jobs Report [Link]

Gold Recouples with Risk Sentiment, Eyes US Jobs Report

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral Gold Rebounds After Taking Out Key Technical Support ETF Investment Liquidation Driving Gold Performance Gold outlook hinges on underlying risk sentiment ahead of another large batch of second-quarter earnings reports from top companies as well as the closely-watched US jobs report amid expectations for further improvement in private payrolls. [Link]

US Dollar Support Gives Way, Stocks Still Undecided

The US Dollar has broken key technical support, opening the door for a further 2 percent decline. Meanwhile, stocks continue to stall, signaling a potential double top and hinting that the link between risk and the greenback may be fading. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 07.21

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USD/JPY Classical 07.21

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USD/CHF Classical 07.21

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USD/CAD Classical 07.21

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NZD/USD Classical 07.21

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GBP/USD Classical 07.21

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GBP/JPY Classical 07.21

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EUR/USD Classical 07.21

The market has broken back below the 100-Day SMA after holding above for 2 days and it looks as though we could be in the process of rolling over with daily studies also showing stretched and in need of a pullback. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 07.21

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.21

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AUD/USD Classical 07.21

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British Pound Volatility Likely as Bank of England Releases Meeting Minutes

The British Pound may turn volatile in European hours as the Bank of England releases minutes from July’s monetary policy meeting – the first one since the government introduced its “emergency” austerity budget. [Link]

Scandi Daily 07.21

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Crude Oil Creeps Higher on Lack of Evidence, Gold Breaks Bounces Back as ETF Holdings Fall

Crude oil is showing little movement ahead of tomorrow's Department of Energy inventory report. Though crude is being pushed and pulled in multiple directions, a bias is clearly evident. [Link]

Opening Comment 07.21

Things certainly could get interesting in Wednesday trade with the markets reversing course late in the day on Tuesday on improved sentiment [Link]

Financial Markets Stall Ahead of Key Event Risk

Benchmark financial assets are stalling in a holding pattern ahead of key event risk as the Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke begins two days of Congressional testimony while the EU unveils bank stress test results. [Link]

Australian Leading Index Slowed for Second Month, Says Westpac

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USDCAD Technicals for July 20th

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USD/JPY: Candlesticks Reveal Long Entry Setup

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Dollar Climbs as Euro Weakness Steps in for an Unstable Bearing for Risk Appetite

• Dollar Climbs as Euro Weakness Steps in for an Unstable Bearing for Risk Appetite • Euro Anchored by Friday’s Stress Tests but Volatility Still Wide Open on Bond Auctions • British Pound Recovers from Tumble Following Government Borrowing Numbers, BoE Minutes Up Next • Canadian Dollar Sees More Volatility than Direction after Bank of Canada Rate Hike • Australian Dollar Balks at the Bearish Tint in the RBA’s Minutes • Japanese Yen Tumble Contradicts Prevailing Risk Trends as Rumor of BoJ Intervention Circulates [Link]

Dollar Holds Steady Despite Clear Threats to Financial Stability and the Euro

• Dollar Holds Steady Despite Clear Threats to Financial Stability and the Euro • Euro Little Moved in the Face of a Possible EU Stress Test Failure, Ireland Downgrade • British Pound Traders Await a Fundamental Wave the Begins the UK’s Fiscal Health • Canadian Dollar: How will the Loonie Respond to Tuesday’s Bank of Canada Rate Decision? • Japanese Yen: Rumor and Speculation of Intervention and Policy Loosening further Boost USDJPY [Link]

A Recovery in Equities and Lifts Crude to its Second Consecutive Daily Advance

Given the backdrop of confusion on direction and volatility that plagued the broader financial markets Tuesday, crudes price action through the session doesn’t seem so unusual. That being said, the general pace of risk appetite was highly unusual. Most investors are still holding off on taking major positions ahead of Friday’s EU Stress Test results for fear of being caught on the wrong side of a tidal wave of either risk appetite or aversion. [Link]

GBP/USD Ascending Channel Provides Profit Opportunity

The pound regained its footing after it was sunk in early trading as June’s public sector net borrowing report showed the budget shortfall narrowed by less-than-expected on the month. A drop in mortgage approvals also added to the bearish sentiment as it fueled concerns that growth could stall as the government increases efforts to reign in the budget. [Link]

USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian Retail Sales Report

As retail spending in Canada is expected to improve in May, the rebound in private consumption is likely to strengthen the outlook for future growth, which could lead the central bank to normalize monetary policy further in the second-half of the year. [Link]

Trends within Trends

Student’s Question: I just cannot visualize how a downtrend can have uptrends in it…or downtrends in an uptrend for that matter. It does not make sense to me. [Link]

GBPUSD Technicals for July 20th

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A Range Bound USD/CHF Presents Scalping Opportunity

The USD/CHF after erasing all of its debt crisis inspired gains has started to settle into a short-term range, as concerns ease. Spain, Ireland and Greece auctioned nearly 10 billion euros of debt signaling that the EU-IMF bailout is providing a comfort level for investors. [Link]

USDJPY Technicals for July 20th

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USDCHF Technicals for July 20th

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USDCAD Technicals for July 20th

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Light Crude Technicals for July 20th

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NZDUSD Technicals for July 20th

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Gold Technicals for July 20th

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GBPUSD Technicals for July 20th

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AUDUSD Technicals for July 20th

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Euro Focus Remains on 13115/85

The EURUSD drop below 12863 may have completed an expanded flat from 13010. As such, price may continue higher towards the long cited target zone of 13115-13185. [Link]

Markets Await ECB Stress Tests Results

The spotlight this week will certainly be placed on the ECB stress tests results which are expected to be released on July 23rd. As of late, the euro has continued its northern journey on the back of renewed optimism surrounding the potential outcome of these results. However, if the conclusion that surface later on this week is not credible, we may see EUR/USD price action dip back below the 100 day SMA. [Link]

Australian Dollar Outperforms, Euro Struggles To Hold Above 100-Day SMA

The Australian dollar extended the advance from the previous day and rose to a high of 0.8815 during the overnight trade, while the Euro weakened against the greenback on Tuesday and slipped to a low of 1.2839. [Link]

US Dollar Hints Recovery Ahead vs Major Currencies

EUR/USD: Bulls Find Resistance Ahead of 1.30 Figure GBP/USD: Weakness Hinted After Channel Top Break USD/JPY: Long Entry Sought at Channel Support USD/CAD: Prices Rebound, Aim for June Swing High AUD/USD: Candlestick Positioning Hints Double Top NZD/USD: Bears Meet Key Support at Fib, Trend Line [Link]

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD has found resistance below the previous high of 1.55245 and is starting to move back to the downside. [Link]

GBP/USD

Even though the GBP/USD has moved up over 1000 pips off of the May lows, the pair has found resistance near the 1.5500 level. [Link]

Spain Sells 6 Billion Euros of Treasury Bills, U.K. Data Continues to Disappoints

Spain sold 4.25 billion euros of 12 month bills at a yield of 2.22 percent, and went onto sell 1.72 billion euros of 18 month bills at 2.33 percent. In turn, this lead Spanish 10 year bonds to fall 3 basis points to 4.37 percent. [Link]

British Pound Weighed By Weakening Outlook, Euro Pares Advance Ahead of U.S. Trade

The British Pound extended the decline from the previous day and slipped to a low of 1.5174 during the European trade as the economic docket reinforced a weakened outlook for the U.K., and the exchange rate may continue to trend lower going into the North American session as investors hold a cautious outlook for the region. [Link]

Markets Await ECB Stress Tests Results

Euro Initially Well Bid on the Back of USD Bearish FT Piece

The ability for the Euro to hold onto recent gains even with all of the potentially currency negative developments over the past few sessions has been more than impressive, and it seems as though the demand from various Middle Eastern and sovereign names will not be denied. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 07.20

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US Dollar, Japanese Yen Decline as Stocks Advance in Asian Trade

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen declined against their major counterparts as stocks advanced in Asian trade, sapping demand for safe-haven assets and boosting interest in carry trades funded in low-yielding currencies. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 07.20

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USD/CHF Classical 07.20

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USD/CAD Classical 07.20

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NZD/USD Classical 07.20

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GBP/USD Classical 07.20

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GBP/JPY Classical 07.20

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EUR/USD Classical 07.20

Price action producing some mixed signals at current levels and difficult to establish clear directional bias. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 07.20

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.20

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AUD/USD Classical 07.20

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Scandi Daily 07.20

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Opening Comment 07.20

Crude Oil Held Steady by Two Opposing Forces, Gold Breaks $1185 Support

Recent quiet trading in crude oil is not indicative of what to expect going forward. Gold is trending lower, but no panic is evident. [Link]

RBA Says Inflation Below 3 Percent, Claims Asian Slowdown 'Desirable'

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US Dollar May Rebound on Safety Demand as Stocks Decline

The US Dollar is testing key support while the MSCI World Stock Index has turned lower from trend line resistance, hinting the greenback may reverse course higher on safety demand amid a return to risk aversion. [Link]

Dollar Holds Steady Despite Clear Threats to Financial Stability and the Euro

Modest Advance for Crude Doesn’t Deviate from Congestion, Risk Catalysts Ahead

If a surprising cooling in one of the world’s largest economies and a collective shift in investor sentiment this past week couldn’t encourage a meaningful trend from crude; then there was little chance that a quiet docket like today’s could breathe life into the commodity. For a wrap up price action, today’s advance was officially the largest in a week; but the active futures contract nonetheless remains in a comfortable range between $78 and $75. [Link]

Euro Diverges From Risk, Will Stress Test Lead To Re-Coupling?

The Euro remains resilient despite a Moody’s downgrade of Ireland’s credit rating and speculation that Germany's Hypo Real Estate has failed the bank stress tests. The single currency rallied in early trading as markets became confident that the stress tests would ease concerns over the banking sector. [Link]

Confirmational Indicators

Student’s Question: I have heard the term “confirmational indicators” mentioned. What are they and if you could show an example that would be great! Thanks. [Link]

USD/CAD: Trading the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

As the central bank in Canada is widely expected to normalize monetary policy further in the second-half of 2010, a shift in the economic assessment could spark a bullish reaction in the Canadian dollar as policy makers see the recovery gathering pace. [Link]

Forex Trading Strategy Analysis: Trade with Market Conditions

US Dollar volatility against the Euro and other major currency pairs has made foreign currency trading more popular than ever, but the influx of new traders has often been met with the loss of old as many traders do poorly amidst volatile markets. But why do many traders fail at forex trading? Very often we find that common trading strategies have limitations that few understand. This article attempts to explain why some of the most popular currency trading strategies fail and, more importantly, how to fix them. [Link]

Intraday Trading 07.19

Over the next 24 hours, the USD/JPY may recover from oversold territory, while the GBP/USD looks to test the 20-day SMA resistance. [Link]

Mixed U.S. Dollar Price Action To Carry Into North American Trade, Japanese Yen Weighed By Risk Appetite

The Euro bounced back on Monday, with the exchange rate advancing to a high of 1.2991 during the overnight trade, but the lack of momentum to bounce back above 1.3000 could drag the pair lower going into the North American trade as the single-currency remains overbought. [Link]

Canadian Dollar Pares Last Week’s Decline, New Zealand Dollar Underperforms

The Canadian dollar pared the sharp decline from the previous week and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Monday, while the New Zealand dollar continued to retrace the advance from earlier this month, with the exchange rate slipping to a low of 0.7035. [Link]

USD/CAD May Present Scalping Target Ahead Of BoC Rate Decision

The USD/CAD has begun to quiet following Friday’s volatility on the back of a disappointing U.S. consumer sentiment reading. We could see the pair’s price action begin to significantly consolidate with the BoC rate decision on tap tomorrow. [Link]

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY has not moved up through a resistance level and continues to print lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. [Link]

Forex Strategy Outlook: Breakout Strategies Attractive on Jump in Volatility

Forex market volatility expectations jumped considerably through last week’s late S&P 500 reversal, pointing to strong price moves in the days ahead. Of course, the past several weeks have seen considerable choppiness in volatility expectations themselves—thus we hesitate to call for continued breakouts with great conviction. [Link]

Moody’s Downgrades Ireland’s Credit Rating to Aa2 from Aa1; Bundesbank Releases July Report

Moody’s downgraded Ireland’s debt from Aa1 to AA2 as the rating agency cited a rising debt burden. [Link]

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY appears to be one of the few EUR pairs that remains in a clear downtrend. [Link]

Mixed U.S. Dollar Price Action To Carry Into North American Trade, Japanese Yen Weighed By Risk Appetite

Currencies See Whipsaw Price Action Overnight As Markets Receive Mixed Signals

We have just come off a week of some very interesting price action with the major currencies outperforming the commodity currencies in risk positive environments and the Yen more attractive than the USD on safe haven buying days. [Link]

China Weekly 07.19

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Forex Fundamental Trends Monitor 07.19.2010

Euro looks to EU stress tests while the Pound tracks the rates outlook as the BOE releases July’s meeting minutes. The Yen and the commodity bloc are anchored to stock markets as the earnings season continues. [Link]

US Dollar Hints Recovery Ahead vs Major Currencies

EUR/USD: Bulls Find Resistance Ahead of 1.30 Figure

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NZD/USD: Bears Meet Key Support at Fib, Trend Line

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AUD/USD: Candlestick Positioning Hints Double Top

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USD/CAD: Prices Rebound, Aim for June Swing High

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GBP/USD: Weakness Hinted After Channel Top Break

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USD/JPY: Long Entry Sought at Channel Support

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USD Graphic Rewind 07.19

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USD/JPY Classical 07.19

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USD/CHF Classical 07.19

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USD/CAD Classical 07.19

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NZD/USD Classical 07.19

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GBP/USD Classical 07.19

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GBP/JPY Classical 07.19

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Australian, New Zealand Dollars Sold as Asian Stocks Follow Wall St Lower

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars slumped as stocks sold off in Asian trade following Friday’s drop on Wall Street after a round of disappointing earnings reports and a sharp downturn in US consumer confidence. [Link]

EUR/USD Classical 07.19

Price action producing some mixed signals at current levels and difficult to establish clear directional bias. On the one hand, we have seen a 2 day close above the 100-Day SMA with the market very well bid over the past several weeks to suggest that more significant upside is to be expected [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 07.19

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.19

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AUD/USD Classical 07.19

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Scandi Daily 07.19

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Opening Comment 07.19

Crude Oil to Look Toward Earnings, Housing Data, Risk Appetite; Gold Tests Bottom of Range

Crude oil will look to U.S. earnings announcements and housing data to gauge the health of the world's largest energy consumer, while gold is getting uncomfortably close to the bottom of the recent range. [Link]

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 07.19.10

US Dollar Struggles to Keep its Safe Haven Roots as Fundamentals Dim Euro Strength at Risk Ahead of Stress Tests, Dow Jones Reversal Japanese Yen May Strengthen Further As Risk Sentiment Falters British Pound Looks to Improved Demand and Growth for Support Canadian Dollar Looks to BoC Rate Decision, Inflation for Next Moves Australian Dollar Momentum Turns Down, Risks of Further Declines New Zealand Dollar At Risk As Pessimism Grows Gold Traders Look to the EU Stress Test to Gauge Market’s Health [Link]

Dollar Finally Gains Traction as Sentiment Plunges but Fundamental Catalysts Undermine Advance

• Euro Eases off its Risk Course but the EU Stress Test Results Next Week Will Determine its Bearing • British Pound Tumbles Ahead of Week Loaded with Growth, Interest Rate and Financial Health Updates • Japanese Yen Further Retreats into its Role as the FX Market’s Favored Funding Currency • New Zealand Dollar Suffers its Biggest Drop Since October as Inflation Data Accelerates Risk Aversion [Link]

The Definitive Shift in Risk Appetite Weighs Crude and Stocks Alike

While US crude put in for a moderate decline Friday (the third consecutive contraction) it is a fair fundamental assessment to suggest that the bearish move was far more reserved than what is justifiable. From the recent peak in the market’s upswing, the active Nymex crude futures contract has slipped only 2.7 percent. For comparison, the S&P 500 plunged 2.9 percent just through Friday’s active session. [Link]

FX Technical Weekly 07-16

Risk aversion returned with a vengeance at the end of the week. US dollar strength remains corrective so far, but that could change. There is a new EURJPY trade. [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07-16

Bullish objectives for the Euro / commodity crosses are well defined. The Yen crosses have plunged and additional weakness is expected. [Link]

GBP/JPY Range Looks to U.K. Fundamentals for Direction

The pound’s three day rally against the yen ended as the pair violently reversed on the back of a broader flight to safety. A sharp fall in U.S. consumer confidence fueled building risk aversion leading to across the board yen gains. [Link]

USDCHF Technicals for July 16th

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USDCAD Technicals for July 16th

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Light Crude Technicals for July 16th

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NZDUSD Technicals for July 16th

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Gold Technicals for July 16th

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GBPUSD Technicals for July 16th

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EURUSD Technicals for July 16th

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Dollar / Yen Plunges Beneath 87-Targets Multi-Decade Low

With 8700 being broken in the USDJPY, it is wise to abandon the previously held ‘cautiously bullish’ bias. Favor the downside – 8700/60 is resistance. [Link]

AUDUSD Technicals for July 16th

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University of Michigan Confidence Tumbles to the Lowest Level Since August 2009

The U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for the month of July plunged to 66.5 from 76.0 in June to exceed economists’ expectations of 74.0. The breakdown of the report showed that the economic outlook fell to 60.6 from 69.8 the month prior, while economic conditions tumbled to 75.5 from 85.6 in June. Immediately following the disappointing data, the Japanese yen continued to gain ground against all major currencies, and was up the most against the New Zealand dollar, climbing 3.73 percent. [Link]

Europe’s Trade Deficit Widens More than Expected in May

The trade deficit in the 16 member euro area widened more than expected for the month of May as the rebound in imports outpaced the advance in exports. [Link]

Euro Rallies to Fresh Monthly High, British Pound Halts Three-Day Advance

The Euro pushed higher against the greenback for the fourth day, with the exchange rate rallying to a fresh monthly high of 1.2986, and the single-currency may continue to push higher throughout the day as policy makers hold an improved outlook for the region. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 07.16

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Euro Shows No Signs of Let Up Despite Weaker Data

Another day and another impressive session for the currency markets, with the Euro once again leading the way to close back above the 100-Day SMA for the first time since December of 2009. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 07.16

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USD/CHF Classical 07.16

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USD/CAD Classical 07.16

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NZD/USD Classical 07.16

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GBP/USD Classical 07.16

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GBP/JPY Classical 07.16

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EUR/USD Classical 07.16

The market continues to surge and has officially closed above the 100-Day SMA for the first time since December of 2009, to potentially warn of a material shift in the construct. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 07.16

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.16

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AUD/USD Classical 07.16

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Scandi Daily 07.16

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Opening Comment 07.16

Another day and another impressive session for the currency markets, with the Euro once again leading the way to close back above the 100-Day SMA for the first time since December of 2009 [Link]

Crude Oil Fluctuates With Equities, Gold Volatility Continues To Fall

This week has seen crude oil take its cues from equity markets, which are in turn taking their cues from U.S. corporate earnings announcements. Our petroleum inventory, supply, and demand charts now include data for the week ending July 9, 2010. [Link]

US Dollar Tries to Muster a Bounce from Oversold Territory, China Helps

The US Dollar is bouncing, led by advances versus commodity currencies, as traders reexamine yesterday’s China data. The Yen remains a holdout, as the currency makes a push toward critical levels versus the USD. [Link]

The Speculative Run in Capital Markets Starts to Flag on the Absence of Fundamentals

Price action is often deceiving. While there is little arguing that the market defines what is fair value for an asset or underlying risk premium itself; this is an assessment that is valid for only that particular point in time. While speculative interests are prevalent in the capital markets, their influence is biased and highly reactive. [Link]

Crude Oil Inventory Watch: Week Ending 7/09/2010

The Department of Energy reported that in the week ending July 9, 2010, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.1 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels, and total petroleum inventories increased 3.2 million barrels. This is the second week in a row that crude oil inventories fell by 5 million barrels; but while crude oil inventories have been declining faster than normal over the last two weeks, product inventories have been increasing at a faster rate than normal, in large part due to refinery utilization, which ticked up again last week to 90.5%, the highest level since January 2008. [Link]

Dollar Takes its Guidance from the Euro Rather than Risk as Correlations Flex

• Dollar Takes its Guidance from the Euro Rather than Risk as Correlations Flex • Euro Climbs as Spanish Bank Fears Put to Rest by Yet Another Successful Debt Auction • Japanese Yen Forges Morning Rally as Carry Reversal Crowds out BoJ’s Downgraded Forecast • British Pound Rally: In the Right Place at the Right Time • Australian Dollar Slips as Inflation Expectations and Chinese Growth Curb Bullish Outlook [Link]

Dour FOMC Growth Forecasts Reverse Crude Gains, Energy Traders Turn to Chinese GDP

Through the end of the US session, NYMEX-based crude would settle the day little changed. If we were simply examining the day-to-day close, it would seem that the day was relatively quiet. [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the U. of Michigan Confidence Survey

A pullback in household sentiment could weigh on the exchange rate as the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious outlook for the economy, and the central bank may look to support the economy throughout the second-half of the year as it aims to balance the risks for growth and inflation. [Link]

Third Touch Confirms the Trendline

Student’s Question: Wait for pair to touch support line then enter trade 50 pips above support with stop set at 50 pips below…sound about right? [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the U. of Michigan Confidence Survey

Pound Pushes Higher as it De-Couples from Risk, Ignores Yield Expectations

The Pound continues to trend higher as the improving outlook for Europe has bolstered the British unit. A successful Spanish bond auction has added to signs that a market exists for European sovereign paper, reducing concerns that the debt crisis will become a contagion that could spread to the U.K. [Link]

Japanese Yen Advances Across The Board, Australian Dollar Halts Two-Day Rally

The Japanese Yen rallied across the board following the shift in market sentiment and is the best performing currency against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, while the Australian dollar halted the two-day rally and slipped to a low of 0.8727 as investors scaled back their appetite for risk. [Link]

A Range Bound EUR/JPY Presents Ideal Scalping Opportunity

The EUR/JPY continues to trade in a narrow range as bullish Euro and Yen sentiment offset each other. A successful Spanish bond auction on top of yesterday’s Greek tender has eased concerns over the region’s ability to raise capital, generating Euro support. [Link]

USDJPY Technicals for July 15th

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USDCHF Technicals for July 15th

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USDCAD Technicals for July 15th

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Light Crude Technicals for July 15th

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NZDUSD Technicals for July 15th

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Gold Technicals for July 15th

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GBPUSD Technicals for July 15th

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Euro Blasts Through Channel; 13100 is Next Level

The EURUSD has blasted through its channel and focus is on 13100 now. 12840 is short term support. [Link]

AUDUSD Technicals for July 15th

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US Dollar May Fall Further on Forex Crowd Sentiment

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Strongly Bullish Against US Dollar GBPUSD – British Pound Likely to Rally Further USDJPY – Japanese Yen Outlook Positive Amidst Sentiment Shift USDCHF – Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Unclear Against Greenback GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast to Decline Against Yen View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum . [Link]

Japanese Yen Outlook Positive Amidst Sentiment Shift

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British Pound Likely to Rally Further

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Euro Forecast Strongly Bullish Against US Dollar

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British Pound Forecast to Decline Against Yen

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Canadian Dollar Forecast Unclear Against Greenback

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Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar

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EUR/GBP

The daily chart of the EUR/GBP shows a downtrend while this 2-hour chart shows a closer look at the rally up off of the low. [Link]

Gold

This daily gold chart (priced in USD) shows a series of higher highs and higher lows which started about 10 years ago at a price in the $200 a ounce area. [Link]

ECB Publishes Monthly Report, Spain Auctions 3 Billion Euros in 15 Year Bonds

The European Central bank published its monthly budget today in which the governing council made the decision to keep its key overnight lending rate near zero. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Extend Advance as Safe-Haven Flows Falter

The Euro extended the rally from earlier this week and advanced to a two-month high of 1.2834 during the overnight trade, and the single-currency may continue to trend higher going into the North American session as investors turn away from safe-haven flows. [Link]

Euro Rally Picks Up Steam as Key 100-Day SMA Approaches

It is practically not worth talking about any market specific fundamentals or economic releases, with the market seemingly content in moving in one direction and one direction only as the Euro once again ascends to fresh multi-day highs against the buck beyond 1.2800 thus far. [Link]

EUR/CHF Classical 07.15

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USD Graphic Rewind 07.15

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USD/JPY Classical 07.15

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USD/CHF Classical 07.15

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USD/CAD Classical 07.15

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NZD/USD Classical 07.15

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GBP/USD Classical 07.15

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GBP/JPY Classical 07.15

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EUR/USD Classical 07.15

Tuesday’s break back above 1.2725 and subsequent close above 1.2700 should be concerning for bears, with the market negating a bearish outside day formation from the previous week and also breaching downtrend resistance off of the early December 2009 highs. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 07.15

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.15

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AUD/USD Classical 07.15

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Scandi Daily 07.15

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Opening Comment 07.15

The Asian session of trade has been rather quiet thus far with the Euro locked in a fairly tight range above 1.2700 and content on a period of consolidation as it contemplates its next move. [Link]

Dollar Bounce Stymied by China Data

Risk appetite got a boost following word that the Chinese economy cooled in the second quarter. The government is hoping that it can pull off a soft landing, which would be especially bullish for commodity currencies. [Link]

Crude Oil Back To Following Equities, Gold Volatility Declines to Lowest Since April

Crude oil is back to taking its cues from equity markets, as the easy gains from the low $70's have been registered. Gold's narrow range makes it easy to trade on a breakout. [Link]

Dollar Tests a New Two Month Low as a Gloomy FOMC Forecasts Takes over for Risk Trends

• Dollar Tests a New Two Month Low as a Gloomy FOMC Forecasts Takes over for Risk Trends • Euro Struggles to Hold onto Gains Spanish Banks Bombard the ECB, Debt Auctions Test Demand • British Pound Wins a Second Rally and New Highs on Strong Employment Data • Japanese Yen Traders Prepare for the Implications of a BoJ Hold or Even a Move to Loosen Policy • Australian Dollar Undermined by Consumer Sentiment, Perhaps Inflation Expectations will Help [Link]

Dollar Offers Little Appeal as Risk Advances, FOMC Swears off Hikes

After a brief reprieve, the dollar continued its month-long decline this past week. The selling pressure behind the world’s most liquid currency is a coming from both speculative and fundamental sources. [Link]

Dour FOMC Growth Forecasts Reverse Crude Gains, Energy Traders Turn to Chinese GDP

Through the end of the US session, NYMEX-based crude would settle the day little changed. If we were simply examining the day-to-day close, it would seem that the day was relatively quiet. A look to the CBOE’s Crude Oil Volatility gauge would second this assessment as it hovers near its lowest level of implied activity in two months (33.2 percent). However, mute activity does not correspond to the fundamental activity on the day. [Link]

Stochastics

Student’s Question: I think a crossover that occurs within the 80-20 channel can be used to enter trade provided we have other evidence like candlesticks supporting such move. A crossover above 80 confirms a overbought situation and below 20 confirms a oversold situation a trade entry in these levels gives a good probability of success. [Link]

NZD/USD: Trading the New Zealand Consumer Price Report

Price growth in New Zealand is expected to fall below the median target of 2% for the first time since the third-quarter of 2009, and subdued inflation could lead the central bank to hold a neutral policy stance over the coming months as it aims to balance the risks for the economy. [Link]

NZD/USD Channel Looks For Return of Risk Aversion

The New Zealand dollar continues to rally on an improving outlook for the global economy as markets focus on positive corporate earnings with the European sovereign debt crisis in the rearview mirror. Asian demand continues to benefit the commodity driven economy which has raised the outlook for continued tightening from the RBNZ. [Link]

Will a Greater Than Expected Inflation Report Lead the RBNZ To Continue Tightening Rates?

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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07-14

Yen crosses look vulnerable in the short term. [Link]

U.S. Data Offers Muddled Outlook for Recovery

Prices of goods imported in the U.S. fell the most since January 2009, according to a report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. [Link]

Forex Options Sentiment Points to Further US Dollar Declines

A sharp drop in forex market volatility expectations has coincided with pullbacks in the safe-haven US Dollar, and a continued slide in vols could produce further USD weakness. FX Options risk reversals have likewise broadly shifted in favor of Greenback weakness. This is especially the case against the British Pound and Swiss Franc where options traders are at their most USD-bearish in at least the past quarter. Though the risk of short-term corrections grows as the USD falls further, current sentiment readings favor continued US Dollar weakness. [Link]

A Range Bound USD/CHF Presents Ideal Scalping Opportunity

The USD/CHF continues to trade sideways as it has started to decouple from the Euro with concerns in the region dissipating. A downgrade of Portugal’s credit rating yesterday was taken in stride by markets as optimism over earnings was the dominant theme. [Link]

British Pound Outperforms, Canadian Dollar Lags Behind

The British Pound rallied against the greenback for the second-day and is the best performing currency amongst the majors on Wednesday, while the Canadian dollar pared the previous day’s advance following a shift in market sentiment, the USD/CAD rising to a high of 1.0371. [Link]

Trading is Not About How Much You Win, But Rather How Much You Lose.

We often mention in the DailyFX Trading Course that one of the key differences between a new trader and a professional trader is that new traders think about how much they can win while professional traders think about how much they can lose. [Link]

USDJPY Technicals for July 14th

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USDCHF Technicals for July 14th

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USDCAD Technicals for July 14th

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Light Crude Technicals for July 14th

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NZDUSD Technicals for July 14th

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Gold Technicals for July 14th

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GBPUSD Technicals for July 14th

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AUDUSD Technicals for July 14th

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Watch the Euro Channel for Direction

The EURUSD has failed to reach the 100% extension at 12780 but price remains within its corrective channel. Trading above the channel would turn me bullish against 12520. [Link]

EUR/JPY

While the EUR/JPY daily chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, we can see that this pair has rallied up off of the low. [Link]

U.K. Unemployment Rate Falls to Its Lowest Level Since March 2009

Jobless claims in the U.K. fell 20.8K for the month of June after tumbling a revised 31.1K the previous month, exceeding economists’ expectations for a 20.0K decline. [Link]

EUR/CAD

The EUR/CAD remains in a downtrend based on the series of lower highs and lower lows as seen on this daily chart. [Link]

European Equities Show Signs of Stalling; Warn of Potential Reversal in Currencies

While most currencies trade flat to lower against the buck heading into North American trade, Sterling has managed to stand out and outperform against the other major currencies, with Cable easily breaking above recent highs by 1.5240 to trade just shy of 1.5300 thus far. [Link]

British Pound Extends Advance on BoE Comments, Euro Holds Tight Range

The British pound extended the rally from the previous day and advanced to a high of 1.5290 during the European trade as policy makers in the U.K. held a hawkish outlook for future policy, and increased speculation for a rate hike later this year may continue to push the GBP/USD higher over the near-term as the central bank sees scope to normalize monetary policy in the second-half of the year. [Link]

FXCM Programming Services Now Available at Fixed Prices

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USD Graphic Rewind 07.14

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USD/JPY Classical 07.14

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USD/CHF Classical 07.14

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USD/CAD Classical 07.14

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NZD/USD Classical 07.14

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GBP/USD Classical 07.14

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GBP/JPY Classical 07.14

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EUR/USD Classical 07.14

EUR/JPY Classical 07.14

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.14

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AUD/USD Classical 07.14

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British Pound Poised to Extend Gains as Jobless Rate Hits 15-Month Low

The British Pound is poised to compound recent gains having outperformed the spectrum of major currencies so far this week amid expectations jobless claims will fall while the unemployment rate hits a 15-month low. [Link]

Scandi Daily 07.14

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Opening Comment 07.14

Yet another positive close in major equity markets on Tuesday has helped to further bolster sentiment in the currency markets with the Euro fully negating recent bearish price action to put in a bullish outside day and expose fresh upside towards 1.2800 further up. [Link]

Crude Oil Awaits Inventory Figures After Rising 3% on Tuesday, Gold Tests the Top of the Recent Range

Crude oil will look toward to the DOE inventory report tomorrow for a bit of guidance. The API survey, released a day earlier, is hinting at a bearish report. Gold prices continue to be dictated by investment flows, which remain at record levels. [Link]

Dollar Drops to a Two-Month Low as Risk Appetite Rises, Data Disappoints and China Downgrades

• Dollar Drops to a Two-Month Low as Risk Appetite Rises, Data Disappoints and China Downgrades • Euro Climbs as a Successful Greek Bond Auction Counteracts Portugal Downgrade • British Pound Reverses Monday’s Losses as Inflation Data, BoE Chatter Revive Rate Speculation • Japanese Yen Drops as Carry Interest Grows, The National Pension Fund Sells JGBs • New Zealand Dollar Rallies Before Housing, Retail Sales Data Misses Expectations [Link]

A Rally for Equities and Tumble for the Dollar Encourages the Biggest Crude Rally in Two Weeks

Given the clear boost in risk appetite across the capital markets Tuesday, oil’s rally should come as little surprise to the experienced trader. Falling back on its speculative roots, the commodity would take its cues from the positive sentiment that drove the S&P 500 up 1.5 percent to a three-week high. [Link]

US Dollar Index

Many traders seem a little unsure about about the direction of the USD pairs, especially the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD and a look at a US Dollar Index shows a good reason why. [Link]

Identifying a Trading Range

Euro Finds Direction from Fundamentals, Influences Broader Sentiment

The Euro staged an impressive rally on the back of a positive outlook for earnings and a successful Greek bond auction. The first attempt to sell its debt for the cash strapped nation since the EU-IMF bailout was oversubscribed at a yield lower than that of the IMF debt, signaling that that demand does exists for Greek debt. [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. Advance Retail Sales Report

As household spending in the U.S. is expected to contract for the second consecutive month in June, the drop in private consumption could weigh on the outlook for future growth and drag on the exchange rate as it accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. [Link]

GBP/USD Bounces Off Of 1.50 Ahead of the U.K. Jobless Claims Report

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USD/JPY May Become Scalping Target as S/R Levels Firm

The USD/JPY has been surprisingly under pressure as a surge in risk appetite has led to across the board dollar weakness. The greenback and yen have been the primary funding currencies and typically see weakness when optimism prevails. [Link]

Look Before You Leap Into a Trade

After closing out a losing trade, it is human nature to want to get right back into another trade to get that money back. [Link]

US Dollar Index

Many traders seem a little unsure about about the direction of the USD pairs, especially the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD and a look at a US Dollar Index shows a good reason why. [Link]

USDJPY Technicals for July 13th

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USDCHF Technicals for July 13th

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USDCAD Technicals for July 13th

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Light Crude Technicals for July 13th

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NZDUSD Technicals for July 13th

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Gold Technicals for July 13th

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GBPUSD Technicals for July 13th

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EURUSD Technicals for July 13th

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Australian Dollar Nears Key Level

AUDUSD 8865 is key and I favor the downside against that level. Trading above 8865 would shift focus to 9130/50. [Link]

German Investor Confidence Falls to its Lowest Level Since April 2009

German investor confidence for the month of July fell to 21.2 from 28.7 the month prior to mark its lowest level since April 2009. [Link]

EUR/NZD

The EUR continues to weaken against the NZD which is confirmed by this downtrend on the EUR/NZD daily chart. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 07.13

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Euro Weighed By Moody’s Downgrade, British Pound Advances on Higher Inflation

Uncertainties surrounding the European debt crisis continued to weigh on the single-currency, with Moody’s Investors’ Services downgrading Portugal’s sovereign debt rating to A1 from Aa2, and the EUR/USD may continue to retrace its near-term rally going into the North American trade as investors hold a cautious outlook for the region. [Link]

Moody’s Downgrades Portugal Debt to A1 from AA2

During the European Session, Moody’s cut Portugal’s credit rating by two notches to A1 from AA2 but maintained a stable outlook. The ratings agency said that the indebted country may need to impose further austerity measures in conjunction to those already announced. The agency also cited the fiscal position of the EMU member as likely to deteriorate over the medium-term which could depress growth prospects. Meanwhile, Fitch’s Brian Coulton affirmed the “negative outlook” for Portugal, and went onto add that the big challenge for the country remains economic growth. [Link]

Solid Greek Auction Demand Mitigated by Portugal Downgrade and Mixed ZEW

Monday’s session of trade proved to be quite orderly and predictable, with the Eur/Usd bearish outside day formation from Friday showing decent downside follow through below 1.2600. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 07.13

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USD/JPY Classical 07.13

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USD/CHF Classical 07.13

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USD/CAD Classical 07.13

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NZD/USD Classical 07.13

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GBP/USD Classical 07.13

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Kiwi Rises on Rate Hike Expectations, Japan Industrial Production Rises

Most rivals were rising modestly versus the US Dollar in overnight trade. US corporate earnings season, which kicks off this week, may have a significant impact on currency movements going forward. [Link]

GBP/JPY Classical 07.13

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EUR/USD Classical 07.13

The market has undergone an impressive correction since basing out by 1.1880 in early June and could finally be poised for a bearish resumption after stalling by some major trend-line resistance off of the December 2009 highs and subsequently carving out a bearish outside day on Friday. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 07.13

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.13

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AUD/USD Classical 07.13

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Scandi Daily 07.13

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Opening Comment 07.13

Monday’s session of trade proved to be quite orderly and predictable, with the Eur/Usd bearish outside day formation from Friday showing decent downside follow through below 1.2600. [Link]

Crude Oil to Take its Cues from U.S. Corporate Earnings, Gold May Be Ready to Fall Again

Crude oil has established a clear uptrend in recent weeks, but will the rally continue with U.S. corporate earnings season set to kick off this week? Gold's recent price action is indicative of a potential move lower. [Link]

Dollar Advances a Second Day on Stagnant Risk Trends, Awaiting Greek Bond Sale and Chinese GDP

• Dollar Advances a Second Day on Stagnant Risk Trends, Awaiting Greek Bond Sale and Chinese GDP • Euro Stable Despite Growing Concern Over Stress Test Reaction, Upcoming Greek Debt Sale • British Pound’s Prospects Deteriorate after Standard & Poor’s Warning, CPI Data Poses Threat • Japanese Yen Adds Fundamental Anchor to Risk Concerns as Ratings Agencies Warn after Election • Canadian Dollar Steady Despite Positive 2Q Credit Conditions and Sales Forecasts [Link]

Dollar Advances a Second Day on Stagnant Risk Trends, Awaiting Greek Bond Sale and Chinese GDP

EUR/JPY Range at Risk Ahead of Corporate Earnings

The Yen has started to find support as markets have become cautious ahead of earnings season as concerns grow that the global economy has started to slow absent government spending. The funding currency is benefitting as traders unwind their risky positions following last week’s bear market rally. [Link]

MACD Histogram Bars

Student’s Question: In the below chart I have highlighted a point where there is crossover on the MACD which would be an indication to take a short position however, although that would be trading in the direction of the trend. I would not enter there because I think that the MACD is too slow an indicator on this occasion. It is giving the signal 4 days late and the market is now way below the resistance line. [Link]

GBP/USD: Trading the U.K. Consumer Price Index

As price growth in the U.K. is expected to expand at a slower pace in June, tapering inflation would allow the Bank of England to maintain a loose policy stance throughout the second-half of the year in an effort to counter the ongoing weakness within the private sector. [Link]

GBP/USD Tests the 100-Day SMA Ahead of the U.K. Inflation Report

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COT Data Warns of a Turn

COT positioning suggests that the Euro and British Pound are topping. [Link]

Inflation and Consumption Data Could Overshadow Cooperate Earnings

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Forex Strategy Outlook: Currency Volatility Drops, Range Strategies Become Attractive

Forex market volatility expectations have dropped considerably through the past week of trade, pointing to smaller currency moves in the weeks ahead. Increasingly choppy price action serves as clear reminder that we have entered summer trading, and few currencies have shown any signs of breaking well-established ranges. [Link]

USDCAD’s Test of Resistance May Present Scalping Opportunity

The Canadian dollar continues to consolidate its gains following a robust employment report which saw the economy add 93,200 jobs in June. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 07-12

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 07-12

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 07-12

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Light Crude 07-12

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 07-12

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Gold 07-12

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British Pound / US Dollar 07-12

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 07-12

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Euro / Dollar Top Possibly In Place

A EURUSD top may be in place. Price failed to reach the 100% extension at 12780 but the drop below 12550 suggests that the ending diagonal is complete. [Link]

U.K. Economic Activity Expands During the Three Months Through March

Economic activity in the U.K. advanced 0.3 percent in the first quarter from the three months through December, the office for National Statistics in London said today. [Link]

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY daily chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows which means a downtrend and a bearish bias. [Link]

EUR/CHF

Ever since the EUR/CHF broke through the 1.5000 level in late 2009, the pair has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows. [Link]

British Pound Retraces Decline To Hold Above 1.50, Euro Maintains Narrow Range From Previous Week

The British Pound pared the overnight decline during the European trade, with the exchange rate bounce back from the low (1.4947) to cross back above the 20-Day SMA at 1.4994, but the GBP/USD may trend lower going into the North American session as investors scale back their appetite for risk. [Link]

Euro Back Under Pressure Following Bearish Outside Day Formation

A few weeks back, when the USD was so strongly bid, many investors were waiting for some form of a reversal to kick in to allow for a necessary and much needed correction within the market. [Link]

China Weekly 07.12

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USD Graphic Rewind 07.12

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USD/JPY Classical 07.12

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USD/CHF Classical 07.12

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USD/CAD Classical 07.12

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NZD/USD Classical 07.12

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GBP/USD Classical 07.12

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GBP/JPY Classical 07.12

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EUR/USD Classical 07.12

EUR/JPY Classical 07.12

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.12

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AUD/USD Classical 07.12

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Yen Slumps as DPJ Losses Upper House Majority, US Earnings in Focus Ahead

The Japanese Yen fell against the majors after the country’s ruling DPJ party lost its majority in the upper house of parliament, boosting political uncertainty. US earnings are in focus heading into European trade. [Link]

Scandi Daily 07.12

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Opening Comment 07.12

A few weeks back, when the USD was so strongly bid, many investors were waiting for some form of a reversal to kick in to allow for a necessary and much needed correction within the market. [Link]

Crude Oil Steady After China Demand Hits Records, Gold Lacking Catalysts

There would need to be another dramatic leg lower in broad financial markets in order to bring crude oil under $70.00. Currently, the commodity is benefitting from positive news flow with regard to demand growth around the world. Gold, on the other hand, has a clear lack of catalysts at the moment. [Link]

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 07.12.10

US Dollar Pulls Back as S&P 500 Posts Largest Gains Since October Euro to Extend Gains as Yield Spreads Narrow, Shorts Unwind Japanese Yen Poised to Weaken Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision British Pound To Face Slower Price Growth, Drop In Jobless Claims Canadian Dollar Could Suffer Without Fundamental Catalyst Australian Dollar Faces Key Test at Multi-Month Highs New Zealand Dollar Rally Could Falter As Earnings Season Lies Ahead Gold Selloff to Resume as US Earnings Season Begins [Link]

FX Technical Weekly 07-09

Patterns in the EURUSD and GBPUSD suggest that the US dollar may begin to strengthen next week. There is a new GBPUSD trade this week. [Link]

Canadian Dollar Still Looks To Crude For Direction Despite Rising Yield Expectations

The Canadian dollar is in the midst of a four day rally as the commodity dollar gained over 400 pips against the greenback. A stronger than expected employment report for June sent the “loonie’ higher across the board ahead of the U.S. session. [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07-09

The EURGBP has reached a level of interest and is at risk of rolling over. There are range trading opportunities in the EURCAD and EURAUD. [Link]

Euro Confirms Reversal vs US Dollar, Targets Above 1.32

EUR/USD: Head and Shoulders Bottom Confirmed GBP/USD: Upswing Stalls at Channel Resistance USD/JPY: Rebound Begins From Channel Bottom USD/CAD: Sellers Return on Trend Line Re-Test AUD/USD: June Top in Sight on Bounce From Fib NZD/USD: Bulls Take Charge, Reclaim 0.70 Figure [Link]

AUDJPY’s May Become Scalping Target As Technical Levels Converge

The AUD/JPY has traded in a tight pattern over the past two days as risk appetite has faded leaving the pair directionless. An apparent bear market rally has started to fizzle out but fundamental reports pointing toward sustained domestic and global growth have ease concerns over the impact of declining government spending. [Link]

Dow Jones Industrial Average

With so many FX traders watching the US stock market, I thought that taking a peek at the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be approriate. [Link]

NZD/USD: Bulls Take the Reins, Reclaim 0.70 Figure

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US Dollar / Japanese Yen 07-09

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 07-09

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Light Crude 07-09

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 07-09

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Gold 07-09

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British Pound / US Dollar 07-09

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Euro / US Dollar 07-09

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 07-09

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Canadian Dollar at Resistance (USDCAD Support)

I expect that the USDCAD will find a secondary low ahead of 10134...and ideally close to its current level. [Link]

EUR/AUD

While the EUR/AUD did not print a lower low in June like most of the other EUR pairs, the recent strength of the AUD has this pair moving down strongly once again. [Link]

British Pound Maintains Narrow Range, Euro Halts Three-Day Rally Following ECB Comments

The British Pound maintained the narrow range from earlier this week and pared the previous day’s decline to a reach a high of 1.5204 during the European trade, and the exchange rate may continue to trend sideways over the near-term as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. [Link]

Canadian Employment Jumps 93.2K, Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.9%

Employment in Canada unexpectedly jumped 93.2K during the month of June from 24.7K the previous month, exceeding economists forecast for a rise of 20.0K. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 7.9 percent from 8.1 percent in May.Immediately following the improved data, the USD/CAD slipped below the 200-day SMA and now looks poised to test the 100-day moving average / 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement on the 5/25, 6/21 downswing. [Link]

Euro Confirms Reversal vs US Dollar, Targets Above 1.32

USD/JPY: Rebound Begins From Channel Bottom

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EUR/USD: Head and Shoulders Bottom Confirmed

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NZD/USD: Bulls Take the Reins, Reclaim 0.70 Figure

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AUD/USD: June Top in Sight on Bounce From Fib

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USD/CAD: Sellers Return on Trend Line Re-Test

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Starting to See Some Relative Weakness in the Franc; Will it Hold?

Global equities remain bid into Friday trade and the resulting price action continues to have a favorable impact on the currency market as investors flow back into higher yielding FX and out of the safe haven USD and Yen. [Link]

GBP/USD: Upswing Stalls at Channel Resistance

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Daily Sound Bites 07.09

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USD Graphic Rewind 07.09

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USD/JPY Classical 07.09

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USD/CHF Classical 07.09

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USD/CAD Classical 07.09

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NZD/USD Classical 07.09

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GBP/USD Classical 07.09

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GBP/JPY Classical 07.09

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EUR/USD Classical 07.09

The market continues to extend gains as it fills out the triggered inverse head & shoulders pattern that was triggered in the previous week. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 07.09

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.09

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AUD/USD Classical 07.09

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New Zealand Dollar Outperforms, Yen Slumps as Risk Rebound Continues

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in amid rising rate hike expectations while the Japanese Yen fell as stocks continued higher in Asian trade, boosting demand for carry trades funded in the low-yielding currency. [Link]

Scandi Daily 07.09

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Crude Oil Back To Middle of Range, Gold Caution Warranted

While Thursday's DOE inventory figures look bullish on the surface, they are very much in line with the 5-year average. Nevertheless, it has been quite some time since inventory figures had any lasting impact on crude oil prices. Rather prices will continue to be driven by other notable factors. [Link]

Opening Comment 07.09

Global equities remain well bid into Friday trade and the resulting price action continues to have a favorable impact on the currency market as investors flow back into higher yielding FX and out of the safe haven USD and Yen. [Link]

Dollar Labeled ‘Overvalued’ by IMF, Risk Aversion and Euro Selling Become Increasingly Important

• Dollar Labeled ‘Overvalued’ by IMF, Risk Aversion and Euro Selling Become Increasingly Important • Euro Ignores International Concern Over Finances, Advances on ECB’s Rate Hold • British Pound Tumbles after IMF Lowers Growth Forecast, Posen versus Sentance at the BoE • Australian Dollar Rallies after a Strong Employment Report Bolsters Interest Rate Expectations • Canadian Dollar Set for Top Event Risk Friday with Change in Employment [Link]

US Dollar Pushed to Key Support as Risky Assets Rebound

The US dollar has been pushed to key trend line support as risky assets continue to rebound, with equity positioning hinting that continued losses are ahead as an index of global stocks overcomes resistance. [Link]

Crude Oil Inventory Watch: Week Ending 7/02/2010

Inventories The Department of Energy reported that in the week ending July 2, 2010, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels, distillate inventories increased 0.3 million barrels, and total petroleum inventories increased 0.4 million barrels. While the storage figures look bullish on the surface, they are very much in line with the 5-year average. Moreover, approximately 1.4 million barrels of production was shut-in last week due to Hurricane Alex; adjusting for the storm impact yields a 3.6 million barrel crude oil draw and a 1.7 million barrels total petroleum build— figures which are slightly more bearish than the 5-year average. Crude oil prices were up preceding the report, but gave up a portion of those gains following the release of the report. [Link]

Using Moving Averages

Student’s Question: I used Moving Averages in this chart for a trade. Would this be correct? [Link]

AUD/USD Channel Limit’s Upside Potential

Risk trends continue to favor the high yielding Australian dollar which has the AUD/USD in the midst of an ascending channel. After finding support at the lower bound the pair is now targeting a test of resistance as optimism is gaining momentum on the back of a rosier growth picture from the IMF. [Link]

USDCAD: Trading the Change in Canadian Employment

The labor market in Canada is expected to improve for the sixth consecutive month in June as businesses increase their rate of production, and the rise in payrolls could drive the exchange rate higher as the data reinforces an enhanced outlook for future growth. [Link]

Dollar Labeled ‘Overvalued’ by IMF, Risk Aversion and Euro Selling Become Increasingly Important

USD/CAD at the Crossroads of the 200-Day SMA Ahead of the Canadian Employment Report

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Australian Dollar Benefits From Risk Appetite, Japanese Yen Gives Back

The Australian dollar extended the rally from earlier this week and is the best performing major currency against the greenback on Thursday, while the Japanese Yen weakened across the board following the shift in market sentiment. [Link]

US Dollar Sentiment Shift Early Sign of Potential Reversal

EURUSD – Euro Expected to Gain Further Against US Dollar GBPUSD – British Pound Forecast Mixed as Sentiment Reverses USDJPY – Japanese Yen Outlook Clouded by Crowd Indecision USDCHF – Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Calls for Strength GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast Unclear Against Yen View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum . [Link]

Canadian Dollar Forecast Calls for Strength

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British Pound Forecast Mixed as Sentiment Reverses

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British Pound Forecast Unclear Against Yen

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Euro Expected to Gain Further Against US Dollar

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Japanese Yen Outlook Clouded by Crowd Indecision

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Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar

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USD/CAD’s Converging Support Levels May Offer Scalping Opportunity

The USD/CAD has been in a bearish rally over the past few days as risk appetite has returned which has favored the Canadian dollar. [Link]

Australian Dollar 8865 Defines the Trend

The decline from 8865 is impulsive (5 waves) therefore I favor the downtrend against that level. The AUDUSD is vulnerable. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 07-08

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 07-08

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 07-08

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Light Crude 07-08

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 07-08

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Gold 07-08

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British Pound / US Dollar 07-08

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Euro / US Dollar 07-08

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Swiss Unemployment Rate Falls to a Yearly Low, German Industrial Production Rises 2.6%

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Switzerland for the month of June fell to 3.9 percent from 4.0 percent the previous month, which was in line with economists’ expectations. Indeed, the increase in employment will be an important driver for the Swiss economy as the increase in the labor force fuels household spending. [Link]

Euro Holds Steady as ECB Keeps Rate at 1.00%, British Pound Fails to React to BoE

The Euro maintained the narrow range from earlier this week as the European Central Bank held the benchmark interest rate at 1.00%, and President Jean-Claude Trichet is likely to maintain a dovish outlook for future policy as the austerity measures weigh on the outlook for future growth. [Link]

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY daily chart shows a strong downtrend, so we want to look for selling opportunities. [Link]

EUR/JPY

In spite of some JPY weakness overnight, the EUR/JPY remains in a strong downtrend. [Link]

ECB, BoE Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged in July

The Bank of England held rates at 0.50 percent in July for the sixteen consecutive month. At the same time, policy makers refrained from expanding their asset purchase program as quantitative easing remained unchanged at 200 billion pounds. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank kept their key overnight lending rate unchanged at 1.00 percent amid ballooning budget deficits in the bloc. During the press conference in Frankurt today, Trichet said that rates are appropriate as “inflation expectations remain firmly anchored." [Link]

USD Reaches Inflection Point; Could Be Poised for Renewed Strength

The broad based negative USD sentiment has extended into early Thursday trade, with the buck as of yet, showing no signs of wanting to reassert itself against the major currencies. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 07.08

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USD/JPY Classical 07.08

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Euro, British Pound Volatility Likely as ECB, BOE Deliver Rate Decisions

The Euro and the British Pound may turn volatile as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England deliver interest rate decisions despite the likelihood of no changes to the key elements of monetary policy. [Link]

USD/CHF Classical 07.08

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USD/CAD Classical 07.08

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NZD/USD Classical 07.08

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GBP/USD Classical 07.08

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GBP/JPY Classical 07.08

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EUR/USD Classical 07.08

Shorter-term technical studies warn of the potential for a pullback, while daily studies show room for additional upside in the days ahead. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 07.08

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.08

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AUD/USD Classical 07.08

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Scandi Daily 07.08

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Opening Comment 07.08

The broad based negative USD sentiment has extended into early Thursday trade, with the buck as of yet, showing no signs of wanting to reassert itself against the major currencies. The notable divergence in correlation between the greenback and US equities since the start of the third quarter has also been impressive, with the USD selling off despite some heavy selling in the global equity markets. [Link]

Crude Oil Up on API Data, Gold Bounces From Levels Near Support

A quiet day in terms of economic news propelled crude oil and other risk assets higher in the prior session. With U.S. jobless claims numbers and crude oil inventory data out on Thursday, will the rally continue? The API survey was decidedly bullish, largely due to Hurricane Alex and its impact on production and tanker loadings last week. [Link]

Dollar Slips for a Second Day but Losses Far Less Severe Than Risk Would Suggest

• Dollar Slips for a Second Day but Losses Far Less Severe Than Risk Would Suggest • Euro: Positive Bond Auctions Conflict with Feeble EU Stress Standards, ECB Decision Up Next • British Pound Looks for Clarity on Interest Rates, Growth from BoE Rate Decision • Canadian Dollar Looks to Risk Appeal to Offset Fundamental Ivey PMI Shortfall • Australian Dollar Will Look to Employment Trends to Maintain Bullish Sentiment Post RBA [Link]

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 07-07

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Dollar Suffers from a Dim Fundamental Outlook, Rising Risk Trends

Was the fundamental outlook for the dollar ever that strong? Up until a few months ago, the benchmark currency was considered to be one of the best positioned currencies for economic performance and interest rate potential amongst the majors. [Link]

Pound Finds Support on Risk Appetite with BoE Expected To Remain On Hold

The Pound gained on the day against the dollar and yen as a pickup in risk appetite saw the safe haven currencies lose ground. The GBP/USD has held a strong correlation with risk trends but the relationship has weakened to 49% from 58% a month ago. [Link]

Currency Correlations Show Risk Appetite Trends Yielding to Fundamental Concerns

For the past two years, one of the most common fundamental themes behind the FX market (all capital markets for that matter) is the ebb and flow of investor sentiment. Initially, it was the wholesale withdrawal of speculative capital from the market that would coordinate the movement of all securities and currency pairs that had a clear dependence on yield. [Link]

Contracting Bollinger Bands

Student’s Question: Looking at this chart, the mid section seems to be ranging nicely, giving plenty of opportunities to go long/short. However, I focused on the outside-range indicators, where the candlesticks have broken through the Bollinger Bands. I think the encircled area is particularly interesting as the bands seem to contract, just before the downtrend. However, it may be more difficult to see this in real-time, rather than retrospectively! Do you run into that? [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 07-07

The Yen crosses likely continue higher into resistance before rolling over late this week or early next week. [Link]

GBP/USD: Trading the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

As market participants speculate the Bank of England to maintain its current policy in July, the interest rate decision may fail to produce a tradable event, but a shift in the central bank’s economic assessment could spark increased volatility in the exchange rate as investors weigh the prospects for a sustainable recovery in the U.K. [Link]

Markets Await Comments by ECB Officials as Borrowing Costs are Expected To Remain at 1.00%

[Link]

EUR/CAD Range Forecasts Short Opportunity

The Euro has traded higher as fears have subsided that the sovereign debt crisis could spread throughout the region and beyond. Bullish sentiment has started to wane as the single currency approaches fair value levels and traders head to the sidelines given the level of uncertainty surrounding the results of the stress tests on European banks. [Link]

FXCM Australia Launches CFD’s in Forex, Stock Indices & Commodities

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Gold 07-07

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New Zealand Dollar Benefits From Shift in Market Sentiment, Euro Maintains Narrow Range

The New Zealand extended the rally from the previous day and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Wednesday, while the Euro pared the previous day’s advance to maintain the narrow range carried over from the previous week. [Link]

EUR/JPY Remains Scalping Target As Consolidation Continues

EUR/JPY erased earlier losses as risk appetite has returned as current valuations have started to motivate bargain hunters. The pair has seen price action increasingly consolidate as fluctuating risk trends and waning Euro support have left it directionless. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 07-07

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 07-07

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 07-07

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Light Crude 07-07

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 07-07

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Gold 07-07

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British Pound / US Dollar 07-07

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Australian Dollar Resistance Zone Extends to 8650

Having reached the 4th wave extreme, the AUDUSD is vulnerable. Additional resistance is at 8590 (former support and 50% retracement) and 8650 (61.8%). [Link]

Euro / US Dollar 07-07

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EUR/GBP

Since the daily chart of the EUR/GBP shows a downtrend, we want to move down to an intraday chart to look for a selling opportunity. [Link]

EUR/CAD

The EUR/CAD remains in a downtrend based on the series of lower highs and lower lows printed since the beginning of 2010. [Link]

German Factory Orders Disappoints in May

German factory orders for the month of May unexpectedly declined 0.5 percent after climbing a revised 3.2 percent the previous month, while economists’ were expecting the reading to climb 0.3 percent. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 07.07

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Euro Maintains Range as Growth Prospects Deteriorate, British Pound Weighed By Shift in Risk Sentiment

The Euro slipped to a low of 1.2553 during the overnight trade as the economic docket reinforced a weakened outlook for future growth, and the shift in market sentiment is likely to weigh on the single-currency going into the U.S. trade as investors scale back their appetite for risk. [Link]

Price Action Uncertain Ahead of Stress Test, Q2 Earnings

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USD Graphic Rewind 07.07

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Opening Comment 07.07

It has been a quiet session in Asia as many eyes watch the Shanghai Composite Index for direction after yesterday’s 2% bounce off its 15-month low and the massively over-subscribed AgBank record IPO. [Link]

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Advance as Stocks Retreat in Asian Trade

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen rose as stocks sold off in Asian trade after disappointing US service-sector growth spurred concerns about the global recovery. More of the same looks likely in European trading hours. [Link]

Financial Markets Position for Return to Risk/Safety Dichotomy

Technical positioning hints financial markets are likely to return to the familiar “risk on” versus “risk off” dynamic after diverging recently, pitting stocks and most commodities against the safety-linked gold and US Dollar. [Link]

Crude Oil Little Changed in Choppy Trading, Gold Continues Lower

With little in the way of fundamental support, crude oil prices are subject to the vagaries of economic sentiment. The path of least resistance for gold is down as momentum traders exit and back away from the market. [Link]

Australian Construction Sector Shrinks for First in Six Months

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UK Shop Prices Fall, Reinforcing Static Interest Rate Outlook

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Dollar Extends its Tumble as Risk and the S&P 500 Advance, European Financials Seem to Stabilize

• Dollar Extends its Tumble as Risk and the S&P 500 Advance, European Financials Seem to Stabilize • Euro Climbs following Successful Spanish Debt Auction, ECB Liquidity Withdrawal • British Pound’s Tumble as Risk Appetite Improves Suggests Fundamental Ties Breaking • Australian Dollar Rallies after RBA Announces Benchmark Rate Held for Second Month • Canadian Dollar May Find Short-Term Volatility from Ivey Business Activity Report [Link]

US Crude Wins its First Positive Performance in Six Days as Equities Struggle to Keep Their Own Gains

There was a dramatic swing in risk appetite trends through the day Tuesday; and crude would stick to its speculative interest while it tracked out the volatility. Through the Asian and European sessions, optimism would find remarkable momentum that quickly spread to most speculative asset classes. [Link]

There is More Than One Way to Assess a Trade

Student’s Question: Is this a good support and resistance chart with just waiting for the third touch before an entry. [Link]

Euro Shows Signs of Decoupling from Risk, Will it Continue?

The EUR/USD build upon recent gains today as the pair benefitted from renewed optimism on the back of a hawkish RBA. The Australian central bank left their target rate unchanged but hinted at future tightening which was perceived as a vote of confidence for the global economy. [Link]

The New Trading Course at DailyFX+

DailyFX is proud to announce the introduction of our new Trading Course . [Link]

AUD/USD: Trading the Change in Australian Employment

With the Australian labor market expected to improve for the fourth consecutive month in June, the rise in payrolls could drive the exchange rate higher and lead the Reserve Bank of Australia to tighten monetary policy further over the coming months as the economic recovery gathers pace. [Link]

US Dollar Forecast to Fall Further versus Euro, British Pound

Noteworthy US Dollar declines have been met with similarly aggressive bets on and hedges against further USD weakness, and our short-term trading bias has accordingly turned bearish the US currency. [Link]

Which Currency Pairs Are Your Favorites?

Most traders have some currency pairs that they like to trade. Perhaps it is because a certain pair gave them their first winning trade or because of where they once vacationed. [Link]

Australian Dollar Pares Last Week’s Decline, Japanese Yen Rebounds Against U.S. Dollar

The Australian dollar retraced the decline from the June high (0.8858) and rallied to 0.8547 following the shift in market sentiment, while the Japanese Yen pared the overnight decline and rallied against the greenback as the U.S. dollar weakened across the board. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 07-06

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 07-06

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 07-06

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Light Crude 07-06

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 07-06

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Euro Closing in on Potentially Strong Resistance

Watch the EURUSD corrective channel. I am on the lookout for a top from 12675 to 12800. [Link]

Gold 07-06

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British Pound / US Dollar 07-06

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 07-06

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USD/CHF May Become Scalping Target with Failed Test of Support

The USDCHF is back under pressure as the concerns over the European banking system and sovereign debt issues continue to dissipate. Switzerland‘s dependence on the Euro-area demand has seen its correlation with the Euro remain strong which has benefitted the local unit. [Link]

Bank Research Consensus Weekly 07.05.10

Marking to market - again. It's time to mark our US yield forecast to market for the second time in as many months, as our belief that real yields would rise this year has not worked. Both real rates and inflation breakevens fell sharply as the European sovereign credit crisis triggered fears of contagion that might promote a US double-dip recession, slower global growth and deflation. Real 10-year yields measured in the TIPS market have declined to just over 1% - close to record lows - while 10-year inflation breakevens are near 1.8%, back to October 2009 levels. Richard Berner, James Caron & David Greenlaw, Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley [Link]

EUR/NZD

With increased buying interest in the NZD and the AUD this morning, the EUR/NZD may be ready to resume the downtrend. [Link]

U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen Weighed by Rebound in Risk Sentiment

The Euro pared the previous day’s decline and rallied to a high of 1.2605 during the overnight trade following the rise in risk appetite, and the single-currency may continue to appreciate going into the North American session as the economic docket remains fairly light for the remainder of the day. [Link]

EUR/NZD

Now that the holiday weekend has ended and traders are coming back into the market, the key is to get an early read on what currencies are being bought. [Link]

ODL Markets offers No Dealing Desk Execution on forex trades

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Switzerland’s Consumer Prices Slows More than Forecasts in June

Consumer prices in Switzerland for the month of June slid 0.4 percent after falling 0.1 percent in May amid expectations of -0.1 percent. At the same time, annualized prices increased 0.5 percent. [Link]

U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen Weighed by Rebound in Risk Sentiment

Risk Aversion Recedes; RBA Sounds Upbeat

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Australia Holds Interest Rates, US Dollar Falls on Rebound in Risk Appetite

Australia’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 4.50 percent for the second month and reinforced a neutral policy bias going forward. The US Dollar fell as risk appetite firmed on bargain-hunting in Asian trade. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 07.06

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USD/JPY Classical 07.06

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USD/CHF Classical 07.06

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USD/CAD Classical 07.06

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NZD/USD Classical 07.06

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GBP/USD Classical 07.06

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GBP/JPY Classical 07.06

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EUR/USD Classical 07.06

Shorter-term technical studies warn of the potential for a pullback, while daily studies show room for additional upside in the days ahead. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 07.06

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EUR/CHF Classical 07.06

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AUD/USD Classical 07.06

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Opening Comment 07.06

Markets remain in a strong downtrend as selling picked up early in Asia following yesterday’s lull. Stocks and currencies have come off their early lows as Shanghai has bounced smartly from its 14-month low posted yesterday. [Link]

Crude Oil Awaits Guidance, Gold is Lower After Breaking Down

Crude oil will look to this week's economic data points for guidance on near-term price direction. First on deck is the ISM Services Index set to be released early on Tuesday. Gold is drifting lower after decisively breaking lower late last week. [Link]

Dollar Enjoys a Modest Bounce During Holiday Periods, How Will it Perform When Risk Trends Return

• Euro Responds to Better Investor Sentiment and Retail Sales Data, Awaits Dollar for True Trend • British Pound Slips as Budget Cuts Threaten Already Anemic Growth in the UK • Australian Dollar Traders Await a Signal from the RBA, Expectations are Already Restrained • New Zealand Dollar Dulls on Risk Appetite, Looks for Business Confidence to Support Rate Policy [Link]

AUD/USD: Trading the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

As the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to hold borrowing costs steady for the second consecutive month in July, the neutral policy stance adopted by the central bank could weigh on the exchange rate as investors curb expectations for future rate hikes. [Link]

Forex Strategy Outlook: Caution Urged Amidst Uncertain Market Conditions

Forex market volatility expectations have picked up noticeably through the past week of trade, but the sheer choppiness across financial markets makes it especially difficult to anticipate market conditions with any degree of conviction. [Link]

Low Liquidity, Disappointing Data, and Urgency for Austerity Measures Pushes the U.S. dollar Higher Against Most Major Currencies

Price action was volatile during the overnight trade, and we may continue to see this precariousness during the North American session as U.S. traders are offline in observance of the Independence Day holiday. [Link]

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 07.05.10

US Dollar Declines Despite S&P 500 Losses, Next Moves Key Euro Rally Defies Fundamentals, But Not for Long British Pound Rally Poised To Gather Pace Ahead of BoE Rate Decision Japanese Yen Trend Points to Slowdown in Gains Gold to Decline on Fading Inflation Outlook, Portfolio Adjustment Canadian Dollar May Find Bid on Strong Fundamentals Australian Dollar Looks to RBA, Employment Data for Direction New Zealand Dollar Stands as the Last Interest Rate Speculator [Link]

Dollar Weathers Mixed NFP Release with Low Liquidity, Ends the Week at a Critical Fork

• Euro Holds onto Thursday’s Unexpected Gains, Will a Quiet Auction Week Maintain Bullishness? • British Pound Advances after Moody’s Offers its own Vote of Confidence in the UK • Australian, Canadian Dollars Set for Volatility in Next Week’s Scheduled Event Risk • Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at Risk from Interventionist Policy Makers [Link]

Holiday Trading Volatility Wins out Against NFP Event Risk to Hold Crude from Deeper Plunge

Friday’s trading conditions were highly unusual. On the one hand, the market was heading into the final session of the week with a strong pace of risk aversion and the monthly US nonfarm payrolls offered a specific event that could help or hinder the market’s activity. [Link]

Currency Cross: Technical Outlook 07-02

Expect weakness in the Euro crosses into next week. The Yen crosses appear at risk of a sharp short covering rally next week. [Link]

GBP/USD: Channel Resistance Increases Downside Risks

Pound support has started to wane as growth concerns have started to replace the optimism generated by the emergency budget. The austerity measures have temporarily erased concerns that the country could lose its AAA credit rating. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 07-02

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 07-02

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 07-02

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 07-02

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Gold 07-02

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British Pound / US Dollar 07-02

Short term channel lines in the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD suggest that the next USD low is just around the corner. [Link]

Euro / US Dollar 07-02

Short term channel lines in the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD suggest that the next USD low is just around the corner. [Link]

Australian Dollar / US Dollar 07-02

Short term channel lines in the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD suggest that the next USD low is just around the corner. [Link]

Light Crude 07-02

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GBP/USD’s Test of Major Resistance Could Present Scalping Opportunity

The GBP/USD is consolidating yesterday’s gains as the pair has run up against major resistance. Sterling support on the back of the new government’s planned budget cuts and the prospect that the country will maintain their AAA rating has started to wane. [Link]

U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to 9.5% Amid Decline in Job Seekers

The unemployment rate in the world’s largest economy fell to 9.5 percent in June from 9.7 percent the month prior, while nonfarm payrolls tumbled 125K. Meanwhile, private payrolls extended its five month advance as figures jumped 83K. Traders should take the decline in the unemployment rate with a grain of salt as the decrease was largely attributed to the massive decline in job seekers. [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the Change in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

As employment in the world’s largest economy is expected to contract for the first time in six-months, the data could spark a bearish reaction in the U.S. dollar as the central bank maintains a cautious outlook for the economy and pledges to hold borrowing costs near zero for an “extended period” of time. [Link]

U.S. Dollar Mixed Ahead of Holiday Weekend, Moody’s Maintain AAA Rating For U.K.

Price action in the foreign exchange market was mixed overnight, with the Euro pulling back to a low of 1.2481, and the major currencies could face choppy price action going into the North American trade as market liquidity thins ahead of the holiday weekend. [Link]

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate Remains at a 10-Year High

The unemployment rate in the 16-member euro area for the month of May remained at a 12-year high for a third successive month. [Link]

Risk Aversion Eases Ahead of NFPs

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US Dollar Positioning Weakens vs Major Currencies

EUR/USD: Head and Shoulders Bottom in Place? USD/JPY: Key Support Tested as Sellers Eye 87.00 GBP/USD: Bulls Hold Sway, Channel Top in Play USD/CAD: Trend Line Ahead on Move Toward 1.08 AUD/USD: Prices Find Support, Hint Upswing Ahead NZD/USD: Candles Hint Rebound From Fib Support [Link]

EUR/USD: Head and Shoulders Bottom in Place?

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NZD/USD: Candles Point to Rebound From Fib Support

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AUD/USD: Prices Find Fib Support, Hint Upswing Ahead

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USD/CAD: Trend Line Ahead as Bulls March Toward 1.08

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USD/JPY: Key Support Tested as Sellers Eye 87.00

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GBP/USD: Bulls Retain Momentum, Channel Top in Play

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Dollar May Rise with Risky Assets as Focus Turns to US Jobs Report

The US Dollar may break with past trading patterns to rise along with risky assets as the economy posts the third-largest increase in private payrolls since labor markets bottomed in 2009, boosting rate hike expectations. [Link]

Opening Comment 07.02

The dollar has been slammed over-night following more weak data out of the US yesterday. [Link]

Crude Oil Plummets on Double Dip Fears, Gold Falls the Most Since February

Commodities got slammed across the board on Thursday, as double dip fears mounted. There is evidence to suggest that there may be more downside to come. [Link]

Risk Appetite Offers Mixed Signals with the S&P 500, Dollar and Gold All Diving Simultaneously

The developments in the markets and risk appetite were highly volatile and somewhat unusual. There is little argument to be made against the claim that risk aversion has picked up considerably over the past week. Most of the risk/growth-linked asset classes have contracted sharply while the fluidity of the credit and financial markets started to stress. [Link]

Risk Appetite Offers Mixed Signals with the S&P 500, Dollar and Gold All Diving Simultaneously

Dollar Moves Signals a Critical Bearish Break Just before NFPs

• Dollar Moves Signals a Critical Bearish Break Just before NFPs • Euro Rallies on Questionable Improvement in Banking Sector’s Health after Spain Auction • British Pound Receives Boost from Euro but BoE Tempers Financial, Rate Forecasts • Australian Dollar Drops as Sentiment, Retail Sales and Construction Deflate Growth, Rate Forecasts • Japanese Yen: Will the Government Step in to Halt the Steady Appreciation of its Currency? [Link]

A Downshift in US and Chinese Growth Coupled with Risk Aversion Marks a Critical Break for Crude

Is the global economy facing a double dip recession and a new financial crisis? That is the concern that made the capital markets swoon Thursday. A disappointing round of data for both the US and China coupled with a questionable shift in the European banking sector would have a particularly dramatic impact on crude prices for the session. [Link]

Downside Targets and a Top in Gold

A secondary top in stocks was indentified several weeks ago . It is now time to assess downside targets. I am measuring objectives with the S&P index. A simple head and shoulders measuring technique yields objectives of 885 (log) and 862 (linear). The 61.8% retracement (878) of the rally from the 2009 low and the July 2009 low (869) reinforce this area as one of importance. [Link]

What is the Effect of the RSI Period Setting?

Student's Question: Would you or do you use at this time your RSI @14? The thread here mentioned 9 or 25 could a person go some where inbetween, say 18? If day trading would you leave at 14? Or if trend trading go longer? Thanks. [Link]

Euro Eyes 1.2500, Australian Dollar Continues To Retrace June Rally

The Euro extended the rally from the previous day and remains the best performing currency against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, while the Australian dollar continued to retrace the advance from June and tumbled to a low of 0.8316 follow the shift in market sentiment. [Link]

How Will the Markets React to the U.S. Unemployment Rate Rising to 9.8 Percent From 9.7 Percent?

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EUR/GBP Reliability Presents Profit Opportunity

The Euro is finding support on the back of a successful Spanish bond offering, but the country’s credit rating remains vulnerable as it is under review by Moody’s. Therefore, we could see the single currency give back recent gains on the expected downgrade as concerns linger that the region is still at risk despite plans to rein in budgets. [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the Change in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR/JPY Presents Scalping Opportunity Ahead Of NFP’s

The EUR/JPY has been one of the quietest pairs on a relatively volatile trading day as Euro support has offset a broader flight to safety. A successful Spanish bond auction helped ease concerns over a potential credit ratings downgrade. [Link]

Euro Eyes 1.2500, Australian Dollar Continues To Retrace June Rally

US Dollar Forecast to Fall Further Against Euro, Japanese Yen

EURUSD – Euro Forecast to Rally Further Against US Dollar GBPUSD – British Pound Outlook Bullish on Sentiment USDJPY – Japanese Yen Expected to Rally Against USD USDCHF – Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Calls for Pullbacks GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast Bearish Against Yen View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum . [Link]

British Pound Forecast Bearish Against Yen

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Canadian Dollar Forecast Calls for Pullbacks

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Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar

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Japanese Yen Expected to Rally Against USD

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British Pound Outlook Bullish on Sentiment

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Euro Forecast to Rally Further Against US Dollar

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Light Crude 07-01

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Gold 07-01

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 07-01

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 07-01

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US Dollar / Japanese Yen 07-01

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 07-01

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British Pound / US Dollar 07-01

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Euro / US Dollar 07-01

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Australian Dollar Resistance at 8460/90

The rally off of last night’s low in the AUDUSD is probably a small 4th wave. Expect resistance from 8460/90 either today or tomorrow before the pair rolls over in a 5th wave. [Link]

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Disappoints in June

ISM manufacturing in June fell to 56.2 from 59.7 in May, while economists were expecting the reading to fall to 59.0. In turn, the U.S. dollar lost ground against most major currencies, while equities during the North American session continued its southern journey. Indeed, there are tentative signs that lingering concerns regarding Europe’s debt crisis are damaging exports in the most recent ISM assessment as the index fell to its lowest level since December 2009. [Link]

ECB Lends $136.5 Billion for Six Days to Cope12 Month Loans Due Today, German Retail Sales Advance in May

The European Central Bank announced that it lent banks 111.2 billion euros for six days in order to help them cope with the expiry of its landmark 12-month loans today. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 07.01

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Euro Extends Rally as ECB Offers Six-Day Tender, British Pound Bounces Back

The Euro extended the previous day’s advance to reach a 1.2338 as the European Central Bank offered commercial banks a six-day tender of EUR 111.2B in order to meet the EUR 442B12-month loan expiry, and the single-currency may continue to appreciate over the near-term as investors speculate the central bank to normalize policy further this year. [Link]

Euro Gets a Lift From Firm European PMIs

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USD Graphic Rewind 07.01

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Opening Comment 07.01

The second quarter of 2010 ended on a decidedly bearish note as Wall Street suffered another late sell-off. Marking the worst quarter since Dec 2008 for the S&P and Nasdaq with losses of 12% apiece, while the Dow ended a four-quarter winning streak, down 10%. [Link]

Dollar and Yen Rise on Risk Aversion but Swiss Franc Outperforms

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen rose as Chinese manufacturing slowed and Moody’s said it may downgrade Spain, sinking stocks in Asian trade. Curiously, the Swiss Franc traded with safety assets and outperformed. [Link]

Crude Oil Falls Under First Level of Support, Gold Facing Crosscurrents

Though Wednesday's oil inventory report was neutral for prices, crude oil is at no loss for potential catalysts. Key technical levels are being tested and significant fundamental uncertainty persists. Gold is caught between two powerful forces. [Link]

Crude Oil Inventory Watch: Week Ending 6/25/2010

Inventories The Department of Energy reported that in the week ending June 25, 2010, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased 2 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased 0.5 million barrels, distillate inventories increased 2.5 million barrels, and total petroleum inventories increased 3.6 million barrels. Though more bearish than analysts’ expectations, the figures were very much in line with the 5-year average. [Link]

EUR/GBP

While the daily chart of the EUR/GBP shows a downtrend, we can see a rally off of a low on this hourly chart. This is a selling opportunity as we anticipate the market finding resistance at some point and reversing back to the downside. [Link]

Dollar Flat as Stocks Break Down, Commodities Set to Follow

The US Dollar continues to tread water, with prices confined to a well-defined range for close to two weeks even as stock exchanges push toward critical lows and benchmark commodity prices position to follow suit. [Link]

German Unemployment Falls 21K, ECB Tender Eases Fears

Risk appetite looks to have regained its footing during the overnight trade as the European Central Bank announced that commercial banks asked for only 131.9 billion euros in three month loans ahead of tomorrow’s repayment of 442 billion euros that commercial banks borrowed from the central bank a year ago. [Link]

Dollar Shaken but Recovers Following this Morning’s Short-Lived, European Sentiment Boost

• Dollar Shaken but Recovers Following this Morning’s Short-Lived, European Sentiment Boost • Euro Can’t Maintain its Buoyancy as Spain’s Credit Warning Contrasts Low ECB Facility Bid • British Pound Tumbles after BoE’s Posen Says UK between Weak Recovery and Severe Recession • Canadian Dollar Losing its Fundamental Grip as Flat Monthly GDP Reading Compliments Rates • Japanese Yen May Find a Temporary Distraction in 2Q Tankan Activity Reports [Link]

A Late-Session Rally in the Dollar and Curbed Growth Potential for the US Weigh Crude

Though the first half of the active trading day (through the Asian and much of the European session) would find crude on a bullish track, the climb was anemic at best. When this modest effort to recoup ground lost over the past few days finally capitulated, the subsequent reversal would generate a far more aggressive move. [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 06-30

The Yen crosses may see corrective rallies begin near current levels. [Link]

EMA and SMA: What's the Difference?

Student’s Question: What’s the difference between a Simple Moving Average and an Exponential Moving Average? Thanks! [Link]

Dollar Rate Forecast Anemic, Growth Outlook Dims, Risk Appeal Wanes

The dollar is growing ever more dependent on its appeal as a safe haven currency – for better or worse. On the back of a seven-month advance, the burden to maintain the greenback’s steady climb has grown to be exceptionally arduous. [Link]

Pound Looks to Re-connect with Risk As Emergency Budget Support Fades

U.K. consumer confidence fell to a six month low as the new government’s budget cuts dimmed the outlook for growth. The GBP/USD fell over a 100 pips as the disappointing sentiment metric reminded markets of the potential impact of the austerity measures. [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Report

As manufacturing in the world’s largest economy is expected to expand at a slower pace in June, the data could weigh on the U.S. dollar as policy makers maintain a cautious outlook for the region. [Link]

Euro Putting in Secondary Low?

A short term EURUSD low may be in place at 12150. Expectations are for wave c to work higher, eventually exceeding 12490. [Link]

Forex Options Markets Warn of Euro, US Dollar Volatility

Recent forex market moves have led to a sharp advance in forex options market volatility expectations, making short-term forecasts especially difficult and warning of large US Dollar moves ahead. Shifts in FX Options risk reversals have been especially dramatic in fast-moving pairs such as the British Pound/US Dollar and US Dollar/Swiss Franc. [Link]

Light Crude 06-30

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Gold 06-30

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 06-30

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 06-30

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US Dollar / Japanese Yen 06-30

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 06-30

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 06-30

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British Pound / US Dollar 06-30

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Euro / US Dollar 06-30

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Euro Struggles to Maintain Rally, British Pound Remains Under Pressure

The Euro is the best performing currency against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, but the intraday rally looks to be tapering off during the North American trade, while the British Pound weakened for the second-day and the currency may continue to lose ground throughout the day as price action fails to hold above the 100-Day SMA at 1.5024. [Link]

USD/JPY Consolidation Presenting Ideal Scalping Opportunity

The ECB reporting that it will lend less than expected to banks helped restore confidence in the region’s financial industry and generated a bout of risk appetite overnight. The surprisingly low demand of 131.9 billion Euros was viewed by markets that the sector may be healthier than previously thought. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.30

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EUR/GBP

German Unemployment Falls 21K, ECB Tender Eases Fears

EUR/CAD

The EUR/CAD continues to print lower highs and lower lows since the highs in December of 2009. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 06.30

[Link]

Euro Rallies as Commercial Banks Prepare to Repay EUR 442B, British Pound Weighed By BoE Comments

The Euro rallied to a high of 1.2303 during the overnight trade as the European Central Bank announced three-month loans to commercial banks increased less-than-expected and that it fulfilled its goals for the EUR 60B covered bond purchase program, and the Governing Council may look to implement its exit strategy at a fastest pace over the coming months as the worst of the debt crisis appears to have passed. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Weakens Against U.S. Dollar as Risk Aversion Takes Center Stage

Risk aversion swayed the currency market during the overnight session, with the euro breaking below the 20-Day SMA (1.2208) to reach a low of 1.2177, and the drop in sentiment is likely to drag the single-currency lower going into the U.S. trade as equity futures foreshadow a lower open for the North American market. [Link]

Sentiment Picks Up After Lower ECB Tender Demand

[Link]

US Dollar Unmoved as Stock Markets Break Down

The US Dollar has remained confined in a familiar range despite a major breakdown on global stock exchanges, hinting the correlation between the greenback and risk appetite may be weakening. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.30

[Link]

Opening Comment 06.30

Stock markets were sent into a tailspin yesterday following Shanghai’s hefty 4.27% loss after the Conference Board revised lower China’s leading indicators showing that growth is beginning to slow. [Link]

Euro May Rise as Risk Appetite Recovers, German Unemployment Falls

The Euro may advance as US equity index futures trade higher, hinting at a rebound in risk appetite that may buoy the single currency against the Dollar and Yen, while German unemployment falls for the 11th month. [Link]

UK Consumer Confidence Falls for Fourth Month on Austerity Fears

UK Consumer Confidence deteriorated for the fourth straight month in June according to a survey from GfK, a market researcher. A gauge of the overall economic situation in the coming 12 months dropped to the lowest in 13 months while the one tracking the climate for major purchases fell to levels unseen since August 2009. GfK managing director Nick Moon attributed the drop to worries about the impact of austerity measures including spending cuts and tax hikes introduced in an emergency budget earlier this month. The government plans to trim the fiscal deficit by a hefty 6.3 percent of GDP by 2014-15. For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

Australian Lending, Home Sales Offer Mixed Cues on Rate Hikes

Australian Private Sector Credit topped economists’ expectations, adding 0.5 in May percent to mark the sixth consecutive increase and matching the largest one since January 2009. Loans to buy houses lead the gauge higher, rising 0.7 percent. Separately, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) reported that New Home Sales fell 6.4 percent over the same period – the largest drawdown in nearly two years. On balance, the figures present a conflicting assessment of the impact the central bank’s tightening campaign has had on the real estate market, offering little actionable information to direct monetary policy expectations in the near term. As it stands, a Credit Suisse gauge of traders’ expectations shows markets are pricing in no further rate hikes for the next 12 months. For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

Crude Oil Testing $75.50 Support, Gold Inches Higher on Safe Haven Appeal

Crude oil buckled under the pressure of plummeting stock markets, but the commodity remains well above key support near $69.50, and the May lows near $64.00. Prices are near initial support at $75.50; whether this level holds or not will be decided by the fate of broader financial markets. [Link]

Dollar Rallies as Chinese Growth, European Finances Stoke Demand for Stability, Liquidity

• Dollar Rallies as Chinese Growth, European Finances Stoke Demand for Stability, Liquidity • Euro to be Put to the Test as 442 Billion ECB Facility Set to Expire, Stress Test Results Surface • British Pound Showing its Own Brand of Fundamental Strength as Sentiment Sours • Swiss Franc Surges to New Record High Versus Euro as Unique Safe Haven Appeal Intensifies • Canadian Dollar Plunges Owing to Risk Sensitivity, Fundamental Traders Turn to GDP Number [Link]

Crude Buffeted by Investor Worry, Chinese Growth Concerns

A cumulative drop in risk appetite and building concern over the future of growth would send the energy market tumbling through the European and US sessions Tuesday. For the US-based WTI crude futures contract, the day’s performance was particularly ugly. [Link]

Euro Could Find Support If Risk aversion Wanes Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

The EURUSD has regained its footing after coming under pressure in early trading on concerns over European banking and U.S. growth. A dismal U.S. consumer price report helped fuel risk aversion but unlike equity markets that continue to tumble the single currency has shown more resiliency. [Link]

Using MACD Divergence

Student's Question: Is MACD divergence used to enter a trade? Or is it just a signal to be ready and watch if price action indicates a trade is in order and use MACD crossover to time the trade? [Link]

Europe at Risk for a “Double-Dip” Recession by the End of the Year

Concerns of a downturn in the 16 member euro area continue to gather pace as the spotlight slowly places focus on the fact that government actions to scale back stimulus measures will put the Euro-Zone at risk for a double-dip recession by the end of the year. Currently, indebted members of the bloc are embarking on austerity measures even though self sustaining procedures have yet to be achieved. [Link]

AUD/USD: Trading the Australia Retail Sales Report

As retail sales in Australia is expected to expand for the third consecutive month in May, the rise in private consumption could stoke speculation for a rate hike next month as the rebound in economic activity gathers pace. [Link]

AUD/JPY Channel at Risk with Flight to Safety

A broader flight to safety has sunk the AUD/JPY which is a strong proxy for overall risk sentiment. The DJIA was down over 2% in early trading as a sharp drop in U.S. consumer confidence dim growth expectations for the world’s largest economy. [Link]

Candlesticks, Bars and Lines

Student’s Question: What I would like to know is...are the forex charts always represented by candlesticks? or is this just a way of describing the trends of charts? [Link]

GBP/USD’s Test of Resistance Presents Scalping Opportunity

The GBP/USD continues to trade sideways despite a disappointing mortgage approvals report which shown new loans were flat at 49.8 despite expectations of an improvement to 51.0. The pair has also withstood a broader flight to safety which had the dollar gaining against most majors, as the sterling continues to find a bid from the new budget. [Link]

EUR/JPY

The JPY has also shown some strength this week which can be seen in the strong downtrend on the EUR/JPY daily chart. [Link]

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 06.28.10

US Dollar Requires Sentiment and Fundamental Drive to Recover Euro Looks to US Nonfarm Payrolls, German Data for Next Moves Japanese Yen May Find Bid On G-20 Failure To Solve EU Debt Crisis British Pound Bullish Price Action Looks to be in the Horizon Canadian Dollar To Face Shift in Risk Trend, Slower Economic Growth Australian Dollar Will Follow Risk Trends but Correlation Ebbing New Zealand Dollar Correlation to S&P 500 Remains Near Record Gold Poised Toward Record Highs on Increasing Risk Aversion [Link]

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index is once again gaining some strength. This daily chart shows a strong uptrend with a series of higher highs and higher lows. [Link]

EUR/JPY

The JPY has also shown some strength this week which can be seen in the strong downtrend on the EUR/JPY daily chart. [Link]

U.K. Mortgage Approvals Disappoints, Euro-zone Consumer Confidence Remains Relatively Unchanged

The final reading for consumer confidence in the 16 member euro area remained unchanged for the month of June, while the economic sentiment index advanced to 98.7 from 98.4 in May. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Weakens Against U.S. Dollar as Risk Aversion Takes Center Stage

Daily Sound Bites 06.28

[Link]

Fear Returns Ahead of LTRO-Expiry; China Slowdown Eyed

[Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.29

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Opening Comment 06.29

In rather lackluster trade in both the US and Asian sessions equities and currencies drifted along without any real directional movement. [Link]

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Rise as Stocks Drop on China Growth Fears

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen rose against major currencies on renewed demand for safety and carry trade liquidation as stocks slumped in Asian trade amid fears of slowing Chinese economic growth. [Link]

Crude Oil Down on Profit Taking, Gold on the Brink

Crude oil got a reminder that hurricane season is just getting started when Tropical Storm Alex formed late last week. Though prices have sold off over the last two session, the larger trend has been strongly to the upside. Global economic concerns remain a wildcard. [Link]

Stock, Commodity Positioning Hints US Dollar to Decline

Technical positioning suggests crude oil and global stock prices are poised to move higher as gold declines, hinting at a broad near-term recovery in risk appetite that may weigh down the safety-linked US Dollar. [Link]

Dollar’s Strength Most Prominent against a Weak Euro as Spending Rises, Activity Dulls

• Dollar’s Strength Most Prominent against a Weak Euro as Spending Rises, Activity Dulls • Euro Falters as Inflation Cools, Greek Debt Sold and European Bank Loans Come Due • British Pound Charges ahead after BoE Member Raises the Call for Rate Hikes • New Zealand Dollar Advance Rebuffed Yet Again following Drop in Business Confidence • Japanese Yen Offers Mixed Performance as Risk Trends, Data Blur Outlook [Link]

EUR/CHF

Looking for the strongest trends each week has become an exercise in finding the strongest currency to match up with the weak EUR and this week is no different. [Link]

Better Than Expected US Spending Report Struggles to Keep Crude Above Water

There was more than enough reason (from a fundamental perspective) to see US crude higher to start the week. Therefore, the benchmark energy contract would naturally fall on the day. [Link]

Candlesticks, Bars and Lines

Student’s Question: What I would like to know is...are the forex charts always represented by candlesticks? or is this just a way of describing the trends of charts? [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the Change in German Unemployment

An ongoing improvement in the German labor market is likely to stoke an enhanced outlook for future growth, and the data could spur a bullish reaction in the single-currency as European policy makers expect the recovery to gather pace in the second-quarter. [Link]

Lower Than Expected U.S. Consumer Confidence Would Validate the Bullish GBPUSD Technical Outlook

[Link]

Swiss Franc Outperforms Against Majors, New Zealand Dollar Gives Back

The Swiss franc extended the advance from the previous week and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Monday, while the New Zealand dollar retraced Friday’s advance following the shift in market sentiment. [Link]

Forex Strategy Outlook: Euro Range Against US Dollar Likely to Persist

Forex market volatility expectations have edged higher through the past week of trade, but relatively depressed absolute levels suggest that currencies will continue to see smaller moves in the week ahead. The Euro remains in a contained 200-point range against the US Dollar since June 14, and continued attempts at breakouts have been met with failure. [Link]

Forex Strategy Outlook: Euro Range Against US Dollar Likely to Persist

You Can't Lose Taking Profits....or Can You?

One of the biggest problems new traders make is to take quick profits on a trade because they fear that the market will move against them and they will end up with a losing trade. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind

You saw the movement in the US Dollar and now you wonder what caused it. [Link]

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY has moved into a range on this hourly chart, but the daily chart shows a strong downtrend so we continue to look for selling opportunities. [Link]

EUR/CHF

Looking for the strongest trends each week has become an exercise in finding the strongest currency to match up with the weak EUR and this week is no different. [Link]

European M3 Money Supply Disappoints in May

The broadest measure of money supply for the 16 member euro area contracted an annualized 0.2 percent in May after falling a revised 0.2 percent the month prior. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 06.28

[Link]

Euro Halts Three-Day Rally Following G20 Summit, British Pound Bounces Back

The Euro halted the three-day rally and slipped to a low of 1.2342 during the overnight trade as global policy makers agreed to tighten fiscal policy and balance their public finances at the G20 meeting over the weekend, and the single-currency may continue to trend lower going into the North American session as the austerity measures weigh on the outlook for future growth. [Link]

Uncertainties Grow Surrounding US Recovery; US Data in Focus

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China Weekly 06.28

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USD Graphic Rewind 06.28

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Currency Markets Unimpressed as G20 Pledges to Halve Budget Deficits

Currency markets showed little directional conviction to start the trading week with investors seemingly unimpressed by pledges to halve advanced economies’ deficits following a G20 summit over weekend. [Link]

Opening Comment 06.28

Sentiment in general remains wary on US double dip fears, Europe funding concerns and uncertainty over China. Trade was relatively quiet in Asia with limited incentive to trade ahead of a slew of key economic releases this week, culminating in June’s NFP release. [Link]

New Zealand Business Confidence Declined Most in 19 Months, Says NBNZ

New Zealand Business Confidence fell the most since October 2008 according to a report from the National Bank of New Zealand (NBNZ). Details of the report revealed eroding expectations across most industries (with the exception of livestock), with the share of firms expecting profits to increase over the near term falling to the lowest in five months (18.8 percent). Interestingly, indexes tracking pricing intentions and inflation expectations saw the largest gains in at least half a year, hinting firms are looking toward a period of stagflation and hinting that the central bank may have its hands full in the months ahead as it tries to reconcile a rising price level with lackluster growth. As it stands, a Credit Suisse gauge of priced-in policy expectations shows traders are betting the RBNZ will add 131 basis points to benchmark borrowing costs over the next 12 months, the most in the G10. For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

Crude Oil Climbs Toward $80, Gold Once Again Aiming for All-Time Highs

Crude oil rallied 2.2% last week, while stocks fell over 3.5%. Can this strong outperformance continue in the new week? [Link]

Japan's Retail Sales Fall Most in Five Years on Fading Stimulus

Japan’s Retail Trade figures proved disappointing, with receipts down 2 percent in May to mark the largest monthly decline in over five years as car and machinery sales tumbled 5.9 and 7.9 percent respectively. The outcome likely reflects the fading effects of the government’s incentive programs to buy energy-efficient vehicles and appliances, some of which are set to expire this year. Economists predicted a far narrower 0.1 percent drawdown ahead of the release. Sales rose 2.8 percent from a year before, amounting to the smallest annualized increase since January. For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 06.28.10

Gold: A Bubble on the Verge of Bursting?

Gold has marched steadily higher over the past ten years, with only the reasons behind investors’ demand for the yellow metal changing along the way. Looking ahead however, mounting fundamental and technical evidence suggests that a sharp downturn lies around the corner. [Link]

Dollar Weakened on Light Day by Stock Recovery, GDP Revision; Next Week Depends on Risk, NFPs

• Euro Falters against All but Dollar as Rising Bond Yields, Default Premiums Point to Trouble Ahead • British Pound Rallies against Dollar as Traders Look for Growth to Back up Finances, Rates • Japanese Yen: What Level of Fundamental Appeal for this Currency is Funding and Safety? • New Zealand Dollar Takes an Unsteady Risk Advantage over its Australian Counterpart [Link]

NFP’s and Manufacturing Data Could Dictate Risk Sentiment and Dollar Direction

[Link]

US Dollar: Six Month Outlook

From a low set in late November, the US dollar spent the first half of 2010 in a steady and inexhaustible rally to 15-month highs. Through the mid-point of the year, the single currency would not even suffer a correction that could be construed as the beginning of a potential reversal. That is, until June rolled around. There are many explanations for the greenback’s mid-year retracement; but no single justification better encompasses the motive to the altered course better than risk appetite itself. [Link]

GBP/USD: Trading the Change in U.K. Mortgage Approvals

As the economic recovery in the U.K. gathers pace, with market participants expecting to see mortgage approvals rise to a five-month high in May, the recent developments could drive the British Pound higher as the outlook for future growth improves. [Link]

EUR/USD Presents Scalping Opportunity Ahead of G-20 Meeting

Markets have started to quiet as we head into a weekend with the G-20 scheduled to meet. Theses summits rarely bring about anything significant but there exists the potential for market moving news to emerge which may keep traders on the sidelines [Link]

GBP/JPY

With the daily chart of the GBP/JPY showing a series of lower highs and lower lows, we move down to the hourly chart to identify a potential entry into a new sell position. [Link]

GBP/JPY

Looking for a strong trending pair that does not include the EUR isn't as easy as it sounds, but the GBP/JPY has been printing a series of lower highs and lower lows since the high in August of 2009. [Link]

Greek Credit Default Swaps Hit an All Time High

Greek credit default swaps (insurance against the country defaulting) rose to a record high overnight as the indebted country announced that it will sell some of its islands including Nafsika and parts of Mykonos. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Hold Tight Range Ahead of U.S. 1Q GDP Report

The Euro continued to trend sideways on Friday, with the exchange rate holding above the 20-Day SMA at 1.2205, and the single-currency may hold steady going into the North American trade as market liquidity thins ahead of the weekend. [Link]

Focus Turns to G20 as Double Dip Fears Mount

[Link]

US Dollar: Bullish Trend Ready to Resume?

EUR/USD: Rebound Stalls, Push to 1.26 Still Likely GBP/USD: Major Resistance Seen at Fib, Trend Line USD/JPY: Buying Opportunities Ahead on 90.00 Break USD/CAD: Bulls Return to Challenge Channel Top AUD/USD: Short Entry Sought Below 0.86 Figure NZD/USD: Prices Seek Direction as Upswing Stalls [Link]

GBP/USD: Major Resistance Seen at Fib, Trend Line

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NZD/USD: Prices Seek Direction as Upswing Stalls

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AUD/USD: Short Entry Sought Below 0.86 Figure

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USD/CAD: Bulls Return to Challenge Channel Top

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USD/JPY: Buying Opportunities Ahead on 90.00 Break

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EUR/USD: Rebound Stalls, Push to 1.26 Still Likely

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Daily Sound Bites 06.25

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USD Graphic Rewind 06.25

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British Pound Forecast Bearish Against Yen

[Link]

Australian, New Zealand Dollars Slump as Asian Stocks Follow Wall St Lower

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars tumbled as European debt concerns continued to weigh on sentiment in Asian trade, sending stock exchanges lower and pressuring the risk-linked high yielders. [Link]

Opening Comment 06.25

Defensive play is the focus as double dip fears mount amidst an ongoing precarious debt situation in Europe in which funding is once again the key issue. [Link]

Crude Oil Volatility Holds Steady, as Stock Volatility Soars; Gold Tries to Regain its Footing

Crude oil has so far held above the key $75.50 level, but sinking stocks pose a challenge to this formidable 'double support.' Traders should look toward classic trading strategies when approaching gold. [Link]

Dollar Finds No Comfort in Durable Goods Data or a Sharp Drop in Equities

• Dollar Finds No Comfort in Durable Goods Data or a Sharp Drop in Equities • Euro Contradicts Risk Trends and Ignores Financial Troubles for Second Consecutive Advance • British Pound Unable to Overtake 1.50 against Dollar on Cautionary BoE Financial Report • Japanese Yen Enjoys Risk Aversion from a Funding Perspective, Deflation Eases • New Zealand Dollar Can’t Catch a Break as Interest Rate Forecasts Hit a 9 Month Low [Link]

Crude Traders Abstain from a Drop in Sentiment as US Data Tops a Slow Day for Event Risk

With a downshift in fundamental activity between Wednesday and Thursday; we would see a similar shift in the quality of price action for the energy market. At the floor of its rising trend channel and a notable pivot level around $75.50, the benchmark NYMEX crude oil futures contract has found a technical boundary to discourage undue momentum from building without a clear picture of how both risk appetite and economic activity will develop through the near future. Yesterday, both underlying price drivers were in flux. [Link]

Using a Trading Journal

Student’s Question: I have heard that it is a good idea to use a Trading Journal. How should it be set up? [Link]

Japanese Yen Expected to Rally Against USD

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Swiss Franc May Strengthen Against Dollar

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Euro Forecast to Rally Further Against US Dollar

[Link]

Crowds Sell Yen and Buy US Dollar: Look for USDJPY Declines

Canadian Dollar Forecast Calls for Pullbacks

[Link]

British Pound Outlook Bullish on Sentiment

[Link]

British Pound Forecast Bearish Against Yen

[Link]

Euro Forecast to Rally Further Against US Dollar

[Link]

Canadian Dollar Fortunes Could Improve With Oil at Trend Line Support

The Canadian dollar remained under pressure as prevailing risk aversion was fueled by Greek credit default swaps rising to a record high, raising concerns that the debt crisis isn’t over. The case is beginning to be made that Greece will ultimately default despite the aid package from the IMF and E.U. members, becoming a catalyst for a sustained flight to safety. [Link]

Japanese Yen Maintains Short-Term Rally, New Zealand Dollar Gives Back

The Japanese Yen extended the rally from earlier this week and remains the best performing currency against the majors on Thursday, while the New Zealand dollar pared the previous day’s advance and slipped to a low of 0.7037 following a shift in market sentiment. [Link]

GBP/JPY Presents Scalping Opportunity as SMA’s Converge

The pound has been finding support on the back of a well received emergency budget plan from the new government. The outline of austerity measures helped ease credit rating concerns which was confirmed by Moody’s which gave it a thumb up. [Link]

Never Trade Without a Protective Stop

After having identified your entry on a new trade, the next step should always be to identify the price level for your protective stop. [Link]

US Dollar Index

This hourly chart of the US Dollar Index shows a market that has one more hurdle before completing the reversal from the downside back to the upside. [Link]

EUR/NZD

A new 3-year low of 1.71832 printed yesterday confirms the present downtrend for the EUR/NZD. [Link]

Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders in April Advances for a Third Straight Month

Industrial new orders in April rose 0.9 percent after rising a revised 5.1 percent the previous month. At the same time, the annualized rate soared 22.1 percent, missing expectations of 21.8 percent, the Eurostat in Luxembourg showed today. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 06.24

[Link]

Euro Continues To Trend Sideways, British Pound Extends Rally

The Euro maintained the narrow range from earlier this week, with price action continuing to hold above the 20-Day SMA at 1.2203, but the single-currency may face increased volatility going into the U.S. trade as the economic docket is expected to reinforce a mixed outlook for future growth. [Link]

Australian PM Rudd Ousted; Sterling Outperforms

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USD Graphic Rewind 06.24

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Opening Comment 06.24

Weak Asian stocks on the back of a mixed close on Wall St on Tuesday as well as softer commodities gave a prop to risk aversion early in Asia. [Link]

EUR/AUD

The EUR/AUD seems ready to test the 1.39267 low from May 14th. [Link]

Dollar, Yen Decline as Australian PM Resignation Lifts Stocks in Asian Trade

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen declined as Australian mining shares led Asian stocks higher after Prime Minister Kevin Rudd stepped down, sapping demand for safety-linked and funding currencies. [Link]

Dollar Dependent on Euro Troubles as Rate Hopes Fade, Growth Cools

While the larger trend for the US dollar is still bullish; the potential for a permanent bearish reversal for the benchmark is higher now than it has been at any other time this year. [Link]

Crude Oil Inventory Watch: Week Ending 6/18/2010

The government reported that for the week ending June 18, 2010, crude oil inventories rose 2 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell 0.8 million barrels, distillate inventories rose 0.3 million barrels, and total petroleum inventories rose 2.7 million barrels. [Link]

Dollar, Risk Appetite Avoid Major Shifts on European Financial Concerns, Plunge in Home Sales

• Dollar, Risk Appetite Avoid Major Shifts on European Financial Concerns, Plunge in Home Sales • Euro Slips after Growth Readings Ease, Banks Fall Back on ECB Support • British Pound Supported by Improved Financial Outlook and Now Interest Rate Expectations • Canadian Dollar Completes a Dramatic Fundamental Reversal with a Plunge in Retail Sales • New Zealand Dollar Looks to Overtake Canadian, Aussie Currency Strength with GDP Figure [Link]

Gillard Replaces Rudd as Australian Prime Minister

Kevin Rudd has stepped down as Prime Minister and Labor Party leader, paving the way for Julia Gillard to become the first ever female PM of Australia. The implications for the Australian economy and fiscal policy will determine whether there is any impact on the Aussie dollar from this event. [Link]

A Deterioration in Economic Activity, Financial Stability Curbs Crude’s Bullish Endeavors

There was plenty for energy traders to take in Wednesday; and little of it was good for the growth and sentiment-dependent crude market. A day after benchmark NYMEX rolled over to the August futures contract as the active nearby, we have seen the commodity take a remarkable dive. [Link]

Bearish US Dollar Forecast Moderates on FX Options Shift

Forex futures traders have scaled back their bets on US Dollar strength, and a similar correction in FX Options sentiment suggests that the US Dollar could continue lower through near-term trade. Last week we called for exactly such corrections and the Greenback has indeed pulled back against key counterparts. [Link]

British Pound Finds Support on Fundamentals, But Risk Trends Still Hold Influence

After seeing its two day rally thwarted by a flight to safety on the back of a record low in U.S new home sales the GBP/USD is again tracking higher. The Pound has seen support grow following the release of the new government’s emergency budget, which received a vote of approval from ratings agency Moody’s today. [Link]

"Market Noise"

Student’s Question: I have heard the expression “Market Noise” but do not know what it means. Thanks! [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. Durable Goods Orders Report

Demands for U.S. durable goods are forecasted to drop 1.4% in May after expanding 2.9% during the previous month, while orders excluding transports are projected to increase 1.0% following the unexpected contraction in April. [Link]

EURUSD Finds Support at the 20-Day SMA Ahead of the U.S. Durable Goods Report

[Link]

USD/CAD Channel Withstands Flight to Safety, Increasing Downside Risks

The Canadian economy has been celebrated for its ability to emerge from the credit crisis barely scathed and will assuredly get praise from world leaders as the country hosts this weekend’s G-20 meeting. Therefore, with little domestic event risk we could see “loonie’ support return, especially if the unit begins to emerge as a potential safe haven with broader pessimism increasing. [Link]

Pound Faces Resistance Although Overall Trend Remains Down

Price on the GJ currently is at 134.11 and if you look on the weekly chart we have sideways the past 2 weeks. We still expect an overall retrace to the low of 125.00 on this pair before we see any major bullishness. [Link]

GBP/JPY Classical 06.23

[Link]

Japanese Yen Continues to Rally Across the Board, Canadian Dollar Extends Decline

The Japanese Yen continued to benefit from the shift in market sentiment and remains the best-performing currency against the greenback on Wednesday, while the Canadian dollar extended the overnight decline as the economic docket reinforced a weakened outlook for the economy. [Link]

U.S. New Home Sales Plunge 33 Percent

Sales of new family homes in May declined at a record pace as the tax credit expired. Figures tumbled 33 percent to an annual pace of 300K. Indeed, the end for the homebuyers tax credit was April, however, the recent disappoint in the U.S. labor market may be another driving force behind today’s figures. [Link]

MBA Mortgage Applications Plunge 33 Percent

Sales of new family homes in May declined at a record pace following the recent expiration of the homebuyers tax credit. Figures tumbled 33 percent to an annual pace of 300K. Indeed, the end for the tax credit was April, however, the recent disappoint in the U.S. labor market may be another driving force behind today’s figures. [Link]

EUR/USD Could Present Scalping Opportunity Ahead FOMC Decision

Currently volatility has spiked across markets as we have started to see a flight to safety as growth concerns have started to re-emerge. Dismal Canadian retail sales and a plunge in U.S. new home sales to a record low absent the tax credit have fueled risk aversion. In this environment it will be difficult for scalpers to find ideal targets. [Link]

EUR/USD

The series of higher highs and higher lows has been broken on the EUR/USD hourly chart as this pair has moved down through the previous low of 1.22414. [Link]

EUR/AUD

The EUR/AUD seems ready to test the 1.39267 low from May 14th. [Link]

May FXCM King of the Micro Winner Boasts 3110% Profit*

[Link]

Daily Sound Bites 06.23

[Link]

British Pound Rallies BoE Minutes, Euro Steady Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision

A split in the Bank of England pushed the British Pound to a high of 1.4926 during the European trade as MPC board member Andrew Sentance voted against the majority and pushed for a rate hike earlier this month, and the rise in interest rate expectations may drive the sterling higher going into the North American session as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. [Link]

USD Locked in Holding Pattern Ahead of Fed

[Link]

BOE Voted 7-1 for 0.5% Interest Rates, 8-0 to Keep Bond Holdings at 200 Billion pounds

The Bank of England minutes for the month of June showed that the decision to keep interest rates at 0.5 percent was not unanimous as policy maker Andrew Sentance said it is appropriate to “gradually withdraw” BOE stimulus measures amid inflation risks. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.23

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.23

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USD/JPY Classical 06.23

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USD/CHF Classical 06.23

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USD/CAD Classical 06.23

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NZD/USD Classical 06.23

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GBP/USD Classical 06.23

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GBP/JPY Classical 06.23

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EUR/USD Classical 06.23

A strong bearish reversal day on Monday, following an impressive recovery rally of 10 consecutive higher highs, could finally warn of the next major lower top by 1.2470, with the market pulling back sharply into the 1.2200’s thus far. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 06.23

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.23

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AUD/USD Classical 06.23

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NZD/USD: Trading the New Zealand 1Q GDP Report

As economic activity in New Zealand is expected to expand for the second consecutive quarter, with market participants speculating the central bank to normalize policy further over the coming months, the data could spark a bullish reaction in the NZD/USD as the outlook for growth and inflation improves. [Link]

Opening Comment 06.23

Not even the China revaluation news was enough to force a shift in broader global macro sentiment, with US equity markets pulling back sharply on Tuesday to warn of an ugly session of trade for Asian and European traders on Wednesday. [Link]

Light Crude 06-22

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British Pound May Fall if Bank of England Minutes Hint Further Easing

The British Pound may fall if minutes from June’s Bank of England policy meeting suggest the central bank could introduce additional stimulus to counter a downturn following the government’s deficit-cutting measures. [Link]

Crude Oil Relatively Strong, Gold May Retest Highs

Oil prices may fall if the bearish API survey is any indication of what we will see in the official government numbers released on Wednesday, while gold traders ponder whether another retest of the all-time highs is in the works. [Link]

Dollar Advances for a Third Day as the Focus Shifts from the Yuan Peg back to European Finances

• Euro Troubled by Suggestions, Evidence that Regional Financial Conditions Deteriorating • British Pound Posts an Uneasy Advance on Government’s Ambitious Budget Efforts • Canadian Dollar Slips as Interest Rate Expectations Plunge following BoC Comments, CPI Data • Japanese Yen Tentatively Advances on Government’s Murky Budget Promises [Link]

Negative Investor Sentiment, Mixed Data Leads Crude to Close its Monday Open Gap

Looking much like the intraday bearish reversal from Monday, the US benchmark crude futures contract (the NYMEX-based WTI) put in for a close in the red through the end of the New York floor session. This move has pushed crude to fully close the gap that opened the week and drove the commodity to a one-month high. [Link]

Euro Weighed As European Banking Concerns Generates Broader Caution

The Euro extended its losses from yesterday as optimism over the Yuan’s unpegging has faded with concerns over the European banking sector emerging as the new catalyst for price action. European Central Bank governing council member Christian Noyer said some banks in the euro region face funding problems which has traders erring on the side of caution. [Link]

Entries/Exits Based on Moving Averages

Key Markets Flash Warning Signs

Risk appetite has increased in recent weeks but the technical position of several markets warn of trouble ahead. [Link]

NZD/USD: Trading the New Zealand 1Q GDP Report

GBP/JPY’s Converging Support/Resistance Creates Scalping Opportunity

The release of the U.K. emergency budget by the new government was warmly received by markets providing Pound support, helping the GBP/JPY erase earlier losses. Broader concerns have fostered bullish yen sentiment which could limit the upside potential for the pair, leaving it within its current short-term range. [Link]

Crude Oil Six-Month Forecast Weighed by Global Uncertainties

Crude oil prices have bounced back going into the second-half of year, stoked by U.S. dollar weakness paired with the rebound in the world economy, and the rise in global activity may continue to drive the cost of energy higher over the coming months as the recovery gathers pace. [Link]

Japanese Yen Rallies Across the Board, Euro Lags Behind

The Japanese Yen is the best performing currency against the U.S. dollar, with the low-yielding currency rallying across the board following a shift in market sentiment, while the Euro extended the decline from earlier this week and is the only currency that’s lower against the greenback on Tuesday. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 06-22

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 06-22

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Euro May Have Topped; 12360 is Resistance

The rally from the low is choppy, overlapping, and therefore corrective. Moreover, the EURUSD decline from the Monday high is in 5 waves. [Link]

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 06-22

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Light Crude 06-22

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 06-22

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Gold 06-22

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British Pound / US Dollar 06-22

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 06-22

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GBP/USD Classical 06.22

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The FX Spread

Trading the FX markets is the same as other financial markets. [Link]

Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne Confirms U.K. Will Not Join the Euro, Pledges to Cut Deficit

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne stated that the government will cut the deficit to 20 billion pounds by 2015 to 2016, during the emergency budget in Parliament today. Mr. Osborne went onto add that the U.K. economy is expected to grow 2.3 percent in 2011, 2.8 percent in 2012, and 1.2 percent this year. [Link]

EUR/CAD

The EUR/CAD appears poised to test the 1.24495 support level printed on June 10th. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 06.22

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EUR/USD

The EUR/USD continues to move down strongly off of the highs of December 2009. [Link]

Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne Confirms U.K. Will Not Join Euro, Pledges to Cut Deficit

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne stated that the government will cut will cut the deficit to 20 billion pounds by 2015 to 2016, during the emergency budget in Parliament today. Mr. Osborne went onto add that the U.K. economy is expected to grow 2.3 percent in 2011, 2.8 percent in 2012, and 1.2 percent this year. [Link]

Euro Weighed Down by Bearish Technical Formation

The news of China’s reformed currency policy has come and gone, and the result thus far has been less than compelling. [Link]

British Pound Weakens Ahead of U.K. Budget Statement, Euro Extends Previous Day’s Decline

The British Pound extended the decline from the previous day and slipped to a low of 1.4696 as investors held a cautious outlook for future policy in the U.K., and the currency is likely to face increased volatility going into the North American session as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is scheduled to release the budget statement at 11:30 GMT. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.22

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USD/JPY Classical 06.22

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USD/CHF Classical 06.22

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USD/CAD Classical 06.22

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NZD/USD Classical 06.22

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GBP/USD Classical 06.22

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GBP/JPY Classical 06.22

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EUR/USD Classical 06.22

A strong bearish reversal day, following an impressive recovery rally of 10 consecutive higher highs, could finally warn of the next major lower top by 1.2470, with the market pulling back sharply into the 1.2200’s thus far. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 06.22

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EUR/JPY Classical 06.22

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.22

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AUD/USD Classical 06.22

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Currency Markets Brace for Volatility Amid Conflicted Risk Trends

Currency markets are poised for increased volatility as traders digest China’s exchange-rate reforms and renewed Euro Zone fears as the UK unveils its emergency budget and the US Fed delivers a rate decision. [Link]

Opening Comment 06.22

The news of China’s reformed currency policy has come and gone, and the result thus far has been less than compelling. [Link]

Crude Oil May Become Rangebound, Gold Has Potential Key Reversal

As more shocks out of Europe fail to materialize, oil traders are of the buy the dips mentality. However, because risks remain and physical fundamentals are quite poor, the market may simply be rangebound. [Link]

US Dollar: Will the Fed Interest Rate Decision Surprise Currency Markets?

US Dollar volatility is likely to continue ahead of an interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve, with traders looking to key soundbites in the policy statement for cues on where the central bank will go from here. [Link]

Dollar Recovers from Flash Surge in Investor Sentiment following China’s Dropping its Fixed Regime

• British Pound: What are the Scenarios for Tuesday’s Budget Report? • Euro’s Take on Unpegged Yuan Mixed, ECB Increases Government Bond Purchases • Canadian Dollar Tumbles after BoC’s Warnings, Traders Look Ahead to CPI Numbers • Japanese Yen Split between Sentiment and Fundamental Implications of China’s Step towards a Float [Link]

Crude Squanders Early Rally on News China Had Dropped its Peg

The big news on the morning – that China had ended a two-year stint fixed rate regime – would not go unnoticed by oil traders. From a speculative perspective, this announcement was interpreted as a sign that capital markets should roar ahead; and for the fundamentally inclined, the news could be understood to mean the global economy would be able to put in for a more balanced economic economy. [Link]

Maximum Allowable Risk

Student's Question: I seem to remember reading somewhere that you should not risk more than 5% per trade. I've been trading 3% per trade and probably open 4 positions a day. So I've been risking 12% per day. Reading into a prior comment made here, should I then risk 1.25% per trade (5% in total)? I was always under the impression that "no more than 5% per trade" meant every trade you open should not be risking more than 5% of your account. eg. $1000: 1st trade: can risk $50, 2nd trade (first trade still open): can still risk $50, etc. [Link]

AUD/NZD Range Holds Despite Yuan Unpegging

Our current set-up may be a bit of a reach with the range loosely defined and price action a ways off from our entry point, unfortunately trending markets have provided slim pickings. We are favoring a test of the upper bound based on the expectations that there will be a level of follow through from China’s unpegging of the Yuan. [Link]

Weekly Spotlight: China Unleashes the Yuan

The People’s Bank of China has decided to abandon its de facto currency peg, and allow the RMB to appreciate. In turn, this decision immediately buoyed investor confidence on Monday as market participants took this move as a sign that policy makers are becoming more optimistic about the global economic recovery ahead of the G-20 meeting next week. [Link]

Speculative Dollar Longs Increase

Speculative USD longs have ticked up after pulling back for several months. As such, the trend towards USD buying may be back underway. [Link]

Forex Strategy Outlook: Slowdown in FX Volatility Favors Range Trading

Further declines in forex market volatility expectations point to slow moves in the US Dollar and other major currencies, boosting the probability of success for Range-style trading strategies. This past week we reluctantly held on to our high-volatility Breakout strategy bias despite the dramatic drop in FX Options vol expectations. [Link]

EUR/JPY Settles Into Range Providing Scalping Opportunity

The EUR/JPY has started to give back overnight gains leaving it within a developing short-term range. Yen crosses found support on the back of China’s signaling that they will remove the Yuan’s peg to the dollar, which was viewed as a vote of confidence for the global economy. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 06-21

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 06-21

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 06-21

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Light Crude 06-21

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Gold 06-21

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British Pound / US Dollar 06-21

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Euro / US Dollar 06-21

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The FX Market and Interest Rates

Usually the most important factor in the value of a currency is the interest rate environment in that country. [Link]

Australian Dollar / US Dollar 06-21

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New Zealand Dollar Reaches Potentially Strong Resistance

The NZDUSD has reached what is probably strong resistance from the 200 day SMA and 78.6% retracement of the decline from 7330. [Link]

GBP/USD

While the GBP/USD daily chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, which means a downtrend and to look for selling opportunities, this hourly chart clearly shows a series of higher highs and higher lows. [Link]

EUR/CAD

The EUR/CAD continues it's strong move down as it looks prepared to test the 1.2449 low of June 10th. [Link]

China Weekly 06.21

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Euro, British Pound Rally Overnight as China Resumes Currency Appreciation

The euro extended its two day advance during the European trade, with the exchange rate reaching an intraday high of 1.2490 following the People’s Bank of China decision to move away from the peg this weekend, allowing the RMB to appreciate. [Link]

Currencies Extend Gains on News of China Pledge for Yuan Flexibility

Investor sentiment has improved quite dramatically over the weekend, with the news that China has pledged to allow its Yuan to appreciate, helping to drive all major markets higher. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 06.21

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.21

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USD/CAD Classical 06.21

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NZD/USD Classical 06.21

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GBP/USD Classical 06.21

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GBP/JPY Classical 06.21

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EUR/USD Classical 06.21

While the overriding trend remains intensely bearish, the market looks to have finally found some form of a base by 1.1900, and is in the process of correcting from oversold levels to put in multiple consecutive daily higher highs. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 06.21

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.21

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AUD/USD Classical 06.21

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Scandi Daily 06.21

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Opening Comment 06.21

Investor sentiment has improved quite dramatically over the weekend, with the news that China has pledged to allow its Yuan to appreciate, helping to drive all major markets higher. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.21

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US Dollar to Rise on Chinese Currency Reform Despite Initial Losses

The US Dollar is likely to appreciate as China moves to reform its famously rigid exchange rate regime toward a looser posture despite a kneejerk decline after the central bank’s initial announcement of the policy shift. [Link]

Crude Oil Up on Chinese Yuan News, Gold Holding Up as $1250 Resistance in the Rearview

The bias remains up in crude oil and news out of China that the country plans to allow more flexibility in its exchange rate is just more fuel for an already established trend. Gold is consolidating after decisively breaking out on Friday. [Link]

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 06.21.10

US Dollar Likely to Slip Further as S&P 500, FX Markets Hit Summer Lull Euro’s Reversal Could Fail Should Market-Wide Risk Appetite Falter Japanese Yen Outlook Mixed as Risk Trends Looks For Catalyst British Pound Could Be Weighed By Increased Austerity Measures Canadian Dollar: Growth, Inflation Report to Drive Rate Expectations Australian Dollar Trend Signals Slowdown in Gains New Zealand Dollar Gains Amidst Forex Market Lull Gold: What Happens When Risk Aversion Lines up with Sovereign Risk? [Link]

Euro’s Reversal Could Fail Should Market-Wide Risk Appetite Falter

Euro’s Reversal Could Fail Should Market-Wide Risk Appetite Falter Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral - German investor confidence suffers its steepest monthly drop since October 2008 - A successful debt auction quiets fear that Spain needs an EU/IMF rescue similar to Greece - Is EURUSD bullish run a lasting reversal or temporary correction? There was a clear skew in the euro’s performance across the majors this past week. There was no clear division on the shared currencies performance regardless of whether it was paired up with a high yield, safe haven, fundamentally robust or financial unstable counterpart. As evidence to this unusual mix, the euro advanced 2.2 percent against the US dollar and 1.2 percent versus the Canadian dollar. Alternatively, the Aussie dollar climbed 0.3 percent and the franc 1.4 percent. This tells us that there is no definitive driver for the broader market (risk appetite, sovereign credit risk, growth expectations); and the euro itself cannot simply advance on the virtue of a overdue rebound (like it has done with EURUSD). Looking to the week ahead, we have to balance the speculative mass’s confidence in the Euro Zone’s financial stability; the level of risk appetite that prevails; and the fundamental standing of the economy itself. [Link]

Dollar Unable to Pull out of its Dive Through a Quiet Week End, FOMC Decision Looms

• British Pound on the Verge of a Critical Breakout as Emergency Budget Nears • Euro Confidence Too High as Stress Results Awaited, ECB Vows No Assistance • Canadian Dollar Rallies as Growth Outlook Positive for 12th Month, Investment Capital Flows In • New Zealand Dollar Traders Look to GDP, Deficit Figures to Fortify Rate Forecasts [Link]

FX Technical Weekly 06-18

The US dollar should find support next week not far from current levels (even if only temporary). [Link]

FOMC Rate Decision, U.K. Budget Report Hold Major Implications

[Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 06-18

After stalling at resistance, the Yen crosses have traded sideways but remain vulnerable. [Link]

FX Market Hours

Unlike most other financial markets, the FX market is open for trading 24 hours a day. [Link]

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has not changed much in the last 24 hours, so we should assume that the downtrend is still in place. [Link]

GBP/USD May Become Scalping Target Ahead of U.K. Budget Release

The new coalition government for the U.K. will publish its emergency budget on June 22nd which could set the tone for the medium term direction for the Pound. A solid plan to reduce the budget deficit which in May was 8.5 billion less than expected could extended the current bullish trend. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 06-18

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 06-18

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 06-18

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Light Crude 06-18

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 06-18

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Gold 06-18

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Euro / US Dollar 06-18

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 06-18

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British Pound Contained by Corrective Channel

The GBPUSD corrective channel, reinforced by the 100% extension of the 14226-14774 advance, continues to hold. With the channel intact, Cable is vulnerable. [Link]

AUD/CAD

A new currency pair I think is worth following is the AUD/CAD. [Link]

U.K. Mortgage Approvals Exceed Forecasts

Mortgage approvals in the U.K. pushed higher in May, with figures showing the number of loans granted rose to 51K from 48K in April. [Link]

British Pound Fails To Maintain Overnight Rally, Euro Weighed by Risk Aversion

The British Pound pulled back from the high (1.4885) and slipped back below the 50-Day SMA (1.4865) to maintain the narrow range from earlier this week, and the exchange rate may continue to trend sideways into the end of the week as investors weigh the prospects for future policy in the U.K. [Link]

EUR/USD: Bulls Aim for 1.26 as Rebound Continues

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USD/CAD Classical 06.18

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US Dollar Correction Continues vs Major Currencies

EUR/USD: Bulls Aim for 1.26 as Rebound Continues GBP/USD: Prices Target 50% Fibonacci Retracement USD/JPY: Long Entry Sought on Move Below 90.00 USD/CAD: Bearish Momentum Persists en Route to 1.02 AUD/USD: Prices Break Higher, Challenge 0.87 Figure NZD/USD: Fib Resistance Cleared, Trend Line Ahead [Link]

EUR/USD: Bulls Aim for 1.26 as Rebound Continues

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NZD/USD: Fib Resistance Cleared, Trend Line Ahead

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AUD/USD: Prices Break Higher, Challenge 0.87 Figure

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USD/CAD: Bearish Momentum Persists en Route to 1.02

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USD/JPY: Long Entry Sought on Move Below 90.00

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GBP/USD: Prices Target 50% Fibonacci Retracement

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USD Graphic Rewind 06.18

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Euro Rally Still Classed As Corrective; Looking to Fade Rallies Above 1.2500

The recovery rally continues into the final day of trade for the week, highlighted by an impressive rebound in Eur/Usd, with the major currency pair on the verge of putting in its 9th consecutive daily higher high. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 06.18

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USD/CHF Classical 06.18

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USD/CAD Classical 06.18

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NZD/USD Classical 06.18

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GBP/USD Classical 06.18

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GBP/JPY Classical 06.18

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EUR/USD Classical 06.18

EUR/JPY Classical 06.18

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.18

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AUD/USD Classical 06.18

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Scandi Daily 06.18

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Opening Comment 06.18

British Pound in Focus With Budget Deficit to Soar in May

The British Pound is in focus ahead of monthly budget figures set to show the second-largest shortfall in a year, underscoring the economic slowdown ahead as the government tackles the yawning deficit. [Link]

Crude Oil Near 50% Retracement Level, Gold Highs a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Crude oil volatility is declining as prices consolidate near the 50% retracement level. Upside and downside risks are largely balanced. Gold may approach $1300 on a break of resistance. [Link]

Australian Dollar / US Dollar 06-17

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Risk Appetite and the Euro Rise but is this a Function of Fundamental Strength or Speculative Interest

The burst of life the speculative markets showed last week has proven itself more robust than what many had expected. A number of financial benchmarks for investor sentiment have established a second week of optimism along with noteworthy breakouts on a technical basis. What has been the foundation for this strength? [Link]

Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar

[Link]

Dollar Stumbles as CPI Data Takes the Wind Out of Rate Expectations, EU Fears Ease Up

• Dollar Stumbles as CPI Data Takes the Wind Out of Rate Expectations, EU Fears Ease Up • Euro Quick to React on a Successful Spanish Debt Auction, Outlook Still Very Uncertain • British Pound Stoic in the Face of Further Budget Cuts, Public Borrowing Stats Due Friday • Swiss Franc Surges after the SNB Hints that it will Curb its Intervention Efforts • New Zealand Dollar Struggles to Assert Itself as a High-Yield, Speculative Currency [Link]

As Equities Cool, So Does Crude Despite a Supposed Improvement in US Growth, EU Markets

After a three-day advance that clears notable resistance, it doesn’t surprise that the crude would put in for a correction that allows for some level of profit taking and fundamental moderation. However, it is interesting that this pullback should occur today when economic conditions seemed to support follow through on a bullish drive that had cleared its speculative hurdles. [Link]

Nothing Happens Until It Happens

Student's Question: I’ve made trades where you enter a position when it looks like the MACD is going to intersect but it doesn't and it goes even further in the direction in which it was going, ultimately hurting my account pretty bad, any suggestions? [Link]

GBP/USD Channel Faces Technical Resistance

The improving fundamentals for the U.K. could remain a supporting factor for the pound and traders may want to wait for a clear sign of a reversal before taking a short position. The 50-Day SMA could be a pivotal level ahead of the budget release on June 22nd as bulls may be reluctant to increase their bets with the looming event risk. [Link]

GBP/USD: Trading the Change in U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing

As the ballooning budget deficit in the U.K. drags on the long-term outlook for the economy, a record rise in public sector borrowing could spark increased volatility in the exchange rate as investors weigh the prospects for future growth. [Link]

EUR/USD Channel Presents Scalping Opportunity

The EUR/USD rose overnight on the back of a successful bond auction from Spain which eased concerns over the county’s ability to raise funds. Bullish momentum has been halted by disappointing U.S. fundamental data which has generated a bout of risk aversion. [Link]

US Dollar / Swiss Franc 06-17

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 06-17

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Light Crude 06-17

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 06-17

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Gold 06-17

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British Pound / US Dollar 06-17

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Euro / US Dollar 06-17

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 06-17

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Dollar/Yen Breaking From Triangle; Objective below 88.10

An in depth look into the current position of risk trends suggests that a 'b' wave triangle is probably complete and that the USDJPY is headed below 8810 [Link]

British Pound Forecast Somewhat Bearish Against Yen

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Canadian Dollar Forecast Calls for Gains

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Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar

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Japanese Yen Expected to Recover against USD

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British Pound Outlook Bullish on Sentiment

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Euro Forecast to Rally Further Against US Dollar

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The Currency Pair

While $1 is always worth $1, the buying power of that US Dollar can vary both in the US and in other countries. [Link]

US Dollar Forecast to Lose Further Against Euro on Forex Sentiment

EURUSD – Euro Forecast to Rally Further Against US Dollar GBPUSD – British Pound Outlook Bullish on Sentiment USDJPY – Japanese Yen Expected to Recover against USD USDCHF – Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Calls for Gains GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast Somewhat Bearish Against Yen View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum . [Link]

EUR/USD

Last night's move up does not change the status of the EUR/USD downtrend on the daily chart but does offer a higher entry into a new sell position. [Link]

GBP/USD

The GBP weakness is noted on this daily chart of the GBP/USD as a series of lower highs and lower lows. [Link]

SNB to Act as Needed if CHF Gains Threaten Deflation, ECB Says Rates are “Appropriate”

The Swiss National Bank kept their key overnight borrowing costs at 0.25 percent in June. Policy makers accompanied the rate decision by suggesting that risks to the Swiss economy remain weighted to the downside on the back of a property market bubble amid advances in mortgage lending, while the central bank has provided excess liquidity in the markets by the use of currency interventions during the past 15 months. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 06.17

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Euro, British Pound Pare Previous Day’s Decline Follow Shift in Risk Sentiment

A shift in market sentiment led the Euro to retrace the previous day’s decline and rally to a high of 1.2395 during the overnight trade, and currency traders may continue to overlook the recent fundamental developments that reinforce a dour outlook for the region as market sentiment drives price action in the foreign exchange market. [Link]

Swissie Stands Out As Currencies Accelerate

Any setbacks in currencies overnight have been easily digested with the market picking up steam and accelerating ahead of the North American open, led by some tremendous gains in the Swiss Franc. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.17

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USD/JPY Classical 06.17

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USD/CHF Classical 06.17

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USD/CAD Classical 06.17

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NZD/USD Classical 06.17

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GBP/USD Classical 06.17

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GBP/JPY Classical 06.17

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EUR/USD Classical 06.17

While the overriding trend remains intensely bearish, the market looks to have finally found some form of a base by 1.1900, and is in the process of correcting from oversold levels. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 06.17

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EUR/CHF Classical 06..17

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AUD/USD Classical 06.17

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Scandi Daily 06.17

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Opening Comment 06.17

It looks as though summer doldrums could be setting in with all of the major markets deferring to a period of consolidation over the past few sessions. [Link]

Swiss Franc Takes Center Stage as SNB Readies Rate Decision

The Swiss Franc is in focus in European trade as the SNB announces monetary policy against a backdrop of looming slowdown in the EU, threatening a return to deflation and increased currency market intervention. [Link]

UK Chancellor Disbands FSA, Transfers Powers to Bank of England

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osbourne fulfilled a Conservative campaign promise by abolishing the Financial Services Authority (FSA) , heretofore the country’s top regulator. The body will be split up into several new regulatory bodies, with most of the authority transferred to the Bank of England. Among the new bodies to be created will be the Financial Policy Committee and the Prudential Regulatory Authority, both of which will ultimately answer to the central bank. The transition is set to be completed by 2012. For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

Crude Oil Bias is Higher Following Break Out, Gold Direction Highly Uncertain

Crude oil is down but still holding above the recent $75.50 breakout point, while gold continues to display strength in the face of stability in the broader financial markets. Be sure to check out our crude oil inventory watch for a summary and charts of the most recent government inventory data. [Link]

Crude Oil Inventory Watch: Week Ending 6/11/2010

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri",&qu~ mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareas~ mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} • The EIA reported that Crude Oil Inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, Gasoline inventories fell by 0.6 million barrels, Distillate inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels, and Total Petroleum Inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels. [Link]

Dollar Tumbles Stalls as Speculative Advance Sidelined by Building Fundamental Resistance

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} • Dollar Tumbles Stalls as Speculative Advance Sidelined by Building Fundamental Resistance • Euro Traders Take Note of Spain Now as Speculation of a Request for Financial Support Builds • British Pound Surprisingly Stable Through a Drop in Confidence and Unemployment • Swiss Franc: What to Expect from Thursday’s SNB Rate Decision • Australian Dollar: Growth and Interest Rate Potential Continue to Slide in the Face of Weak Data [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 06-16

The Yen crosses are failing at resistance and could see sharp pullbacks from current levels. [Link]

Candles and Support and Resistance Lines

Student’s Question: When drawing support and resistance lines should you draw them from wick to wick or body to body? [Link]

Dollar Retracement Fundamentally Limited, Speculatively Reasonable

Investor optimism has put in for a dramatic recovery his past week; and as a natural side effect, risk-based assets have rallied while the safe-haven US dollar has tumbled. Given the cumulative interest that has developed behind this single currency as a harbor from growing risk over the past seven months, a sustained decline would be expected at least as long as there is momentum behind the sentiment shift. [Link]

British Pound / US Dollar 06-16

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Euro Recovers as Positive Equity Markets Help Traders Look Past Spain’s Troubles

The EUR/USD has managed to erase a majority of its earlier losses as it looks to continue its recent rally. Concerns that Spain will be the next European nation in need of a bailout package saw the pair drop nearly 100 pips before regaining its footing. [Link]

A Range Bound USD/JPY Creates Ideal Scalping Environment

The USD/JPY has come under pressure today as concerns that Spain may be the next country in need of a bailout and a disappointing U.S. housing starts report fueled risk appetite. However, the highest level of industrial production since August was enough to curb bearish sentiment. [Link]

A Greater Than Expected Drop in U.S. Consumer Prices May Lead the USD/CHF to Test the 50-Day SMA

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A Range Bound USD/JPY Creates Ideal Scalping Environment

US Dollar / Swiss Franc 06-16

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 06-16

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Light Crude 06-16

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 06-16

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Gold 06-16

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British Pound / US Dollar 06-16

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Euro / US Dollar 06-16

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 06-16

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Yen Triangle May be Underway; Potential Opportunity Soon

The USDJPY is stationary and has been for weeks. However, a triangle may be nearing completion in the next several days. [Link]

Euro Finds Fresh Bid As S&P Closes Back Above 200-Day SMA

The risk buying continues into the mid-week, and much of the resurgence in risk appetite seems to be more driven by technical demand rather than any specific fundamental developments. [Link]

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is still holding above the 1.21671 low which we identified as a potential sell entry level if the market were to break down through that support. [Link]

EUR/NZD

Continuing with the EUR weakness is this daily chart of the EUR/NZD which shows a strong downtrend. [Link]

EUR/CHF: Trading the Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision

As the Swiss National Bank is expected to hold borrowing costs steady in June, the statement accompanying the rate decision is likely to spur increased volatility in the exchange rate as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. [Link]

British Pound Advances Following Unexpected Drop in Unemployment, Euro Halts Two-Day Rally

The British Pound pared the overnight decline against the greenback and pushed back above 1.4800 as the economic docket reinforced an enhanced outlook for future growth, and conditions are likely to improve going forward as the economic recovery gathers pace. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 06.16

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Euro Finds Fresh BidAs S&P Closes Back Above 200-Day SMA

The risk buying continues into the mid-week, and much of the resurgence in risk appetite seems to be more driven by technical demand rather than any specific fundamental developments. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.16

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USD/JPY Classical 06.16

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USD/CHF Classical 06.16

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USD/CAD Classical 06.16

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NZD/USD Classical 06.16

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GBP/USD Classical 06.16

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GBP/JPY Classical 06.16

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EUR/USD Classical 06.16

While the overriding trend remains intensely bearish, the market looks to have finally found some form of a base by 1.1900, and is in the process of correcting from oversold levels. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 06.16

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.16

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AUD/USD Classical 06.16

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Scandi Daily 06.16

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Opening Comment 06.16

The risk buying continues into the mid-week, and much of the resurgence in risk appetite seems to be more driven by technical demand rather than any specific fundamental developments. [Link]

British Pound Threatened with Soft Jobs Report Ahead of Austerity Budget

The British Pound may decline as May’s jobs report shows improvement in the labor market is be losing steam, threatening economic growth prospects as the government prepares an austerity-focused emergency budget. [Link]

Crude Finally Breaks Out, Gold Rallies Despite Increasing Risk Appetite

Crude oil will take its cues from inventory data and a spat of U.S. economic releases on Wednesday, while gold remains in a critical technical area. [Link]

Japan's Service Demand Rises for First in Three Months, Outlook Clouded

Japan’s Tertiary Index of service demand rose for the first time in three months, adding 2.1 percent in April. Retail and wholesale activity as well as information and communication services led the metric higher. The outlook going forward seems uncertain however with some of the government’s stimulus programs expire this year while a new program offering each family a monthly allowance of 13,000 yen is phased in. On balance, April’s labor market figures hinted firms are becoming reluctant about future demand amid fears of a slowdown in China – the core engine of demand driving Japan’s export-led recovery – hinting that lackluster hiring will weigh on consumer spending (including that on services) in the months ahead. For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

Swiss Franc Set to Move on Interest Rate Decision

The Swiss Franc is in focus, as the SNB gets ready to release its monetary policy assessment on Thursday. The central bank has made no secret of the fact that it wants the Swiss currency to depreciate, and that exchange rate intervention is very much on the table. [Link]

UK Consumer Confidence Falls to 11-Month Low Ahead of Austerity Budget

A gauge of UK Consumer Confidence from the Nationwide Building Society unexpectedly dipped to the lowest level in 11 months. Details of the report revealed that the outlook on economic growth over the next 6 months among polled respondents dipped to the lowest level since August 2009, likely reflecting expectations of the fallout from the government’s austerity measures to be announced as part of an Emergency Budget next week in a bid to trim the gaping UK budget deficit. The growth rate of government spending has regularly outpaced that of private consumption since the first quarter of 2008, so any retrenchment on the fiscal side is likely to bring a slowdown in economic activity. For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

Dollar Clears Another Level of Support as Sentiment Heats Up Despite Discouraging Fundamentals

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 • Dollar Clears Another Level of Support as Sentiment Heats Up Despite Discouraging Fundamentals • Euro Unperturbed by a Severe Drop in Investor Sentiment, EU’s Own Warnings Over Debt • British Pound Finds Limited Encouragement from Inflation Readings that Could Pain BoE Doves • Japanese Yen Further Secures its Funding Status as the BoJ Loosens its Monetary Grip • Australian Dollar Traders Interpret RBA Minutes to Mean No More Rate Hikes in the Foreseeable Future [Link]

Crude Marks a Strong Bullish Breakout to a Monthly High with the Support of Risk Appetite and a Weak Dollar

Until recently, momentum behind the effort to turn US crude’s bullish range reversal into a clear trend has been relatively reserved. That is until today when the active futures contract cleared a notable range resistance around $76 and $75.50 and proceeded to overtake the 200-day moving average. [Link]

Controlling Greed

Student’s Question: How can you control greed??? That has been my number 1 problem. I want money and I want it NOW. It’s been so hard to control greed. Then, I’m trying to control it by telling myself there are going to be better trades I just have to wait for them, but sometimes it just takes over. [Link]

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 06-15

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Pound Set to Retest Lows

As the bearish market continues for the cross pairs, the GJ pair has met all of our targets in the past. We are expecting one more retest to the low before we see a correction to the upside. [Link]

Weekly Spotlight: Europe’s Outlook Progressively Worsens

European woes continue to remain in the spotlight, and it is unlikely that the lens will change focus in the near term as ballooning budget deficits in the 16-member euro area continue to rattle the markets. Indeed, Europe’s outlook seems to progressively worsen week by week, and we may see the bloc slip back into recession by the end of this year. [Link]

GBP/USD: Trading the Change in U.K. Jobless Claims

As the labor market in the U.K. continues to improve, the central bank may raise its economic assessment in the coming months, and the data is could spur a bullish reaction in the British Pound as the recovery gathers pace. [Link]

Will the U.K. Employment Data Paint a Clear Picture and Lead the GBPUSD to Break Above the 50-Day SMA?

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Light Crude 06-15

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Gold 06-15

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 06-15

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 06-15

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US Dollar / Japanese Yen 06-15

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 06-15

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 06-15

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British Pound / US Dollar 06-15

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Euro May See Short Term Resistance at 12330

Near term, the EURUSD may see resistance from 12330. 12050-12170 is a support zone. [Link]

EUR/USD

The daily chart of the EUR/USD continues to show a strong downtrend which means to look for selling opportunities. [Link]

EUR/CAD

This daily chart of the EUR/CAD has shown a series of lower highs and lower lows since coming off of the highs in December of 2009. [Link]

German Investor Confidence Falls to the Lowest Level Since May 2009, Fitch Sees Concern of Double-Dip Recession in the Euro-Zone

German investor confidence in June plunged to its lowest level since May of 2009. Figures showed that economic sentiment fell to 28.7 in June from 45.8 the previous month, while the current situation indicator rose to -7.9 from -21.6 in the same time period. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 06.15

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Euro Ignores Warning Shots From Fitch Rating, British Pound Maintains Narrow Range

The U.S. dollar continued to weaken against most of its major counterparts, with the Euro extending the previous day’s advance to a reach a high of 1.2265 during the overnight trade, and the rise in risk sentiment is likely to dictate price action going into the North American session as investors turn a blind eye to the fundamental developments for the global economy. [Link]

Euro Rally Establishing Credibilty With Market Immune to Softer Data

The broad resurgence in risk appetite looks to be facing its first challenge into Tuesday trade, with currency, equity and commodity markets all coming under some renewed pressure as select traders look to position themselves back into the more clearly defined risk aversion trend. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.15

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USD/JPY Classical 06.15

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USD/CHF Classical 06.15

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USD/CAD Classical 06.15

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NZD/USD Classical 06.15

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GBP/USD Classical 06.15

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GBP/JPY Classical 06.15

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EUR/USD Classical 06.15

While the overriding trend remains intensely bearish, the market looks to have finally found some form of a base by 1.1900, and is in the process of correcting from oversold levels. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 06.15

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.15

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AUD/USD Classical 06.15

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Scandi Daily 06.15

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Opening Comment 06.15

Euro and Pound May Fall as German ZEW, UK CPI Weigh on Rates Outlook

The Euro and the British Pound may decline as Germany’s ZEW survey of investor confidence and UK consumer price index figures underscore the lackluster interest rate outlook for European central banks. [Link]

Crude Oil (Still) Holding Below Resistance, Gold Break (Still) Imminent

Little has changed since yesterday, as oil and gold find themselves in their same respective trading ranges. Nevertheless, a break is likely in at least one of the commodities. [Link]

Australia to Hold Interest Rates as RBA Gauges EU Crisis Fallout

Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June policy meeting bolstered expectations that further interest rate hikes are likely off the table for the time being. Policymakers said borrowing costs are now around “average levels” – their stated objective for much of the tightening cycle – and added that the situation in Europe has “deteriorated significantly”, arguing that previous rate hikes provide “flexibility” to wait for a clearer reading on the impact of EU-linked financial market turmoil on the global recovery. For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

New Zealand House Price, Sales Data Weigh on Rate Hike Outlook

New Zealand House Sales fell 17.2 percent in the year through May – the largest drop in 15 months – according to a report from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ). House Prices fell 1.4 percent from April, making the second consecutive decline and the largest one in four months. The median time to sell a property rose to 43 days, the highest since February. The figures suggest the central bank will likely take a measured approach to further interest rate hikes, reinforcing the cautious wording accompanying last week’s policy announcement. Indeed, a Credit Suisse gauge of priced-in rate hike expectations showed traders now see the likelihood of another 25bps increase in July at 52 percent, down from 76 percent just yesterday. For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

EUR/USD: Exit Short Position as Prices Clear Resistance

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Dollar Clears a Critical Support Level but how Far Can Sentiment Drag the Currency Lower?

• Dollar Clears a Critical Support Level but how Far Can Sentiment Drag the Currency Lower? • Euro Rebound Purely Speculative as Greece Downgrade, European Lending Freeze Raise Threat Level • British Pound Shows Strength after OBR Budget Revisions, Traders Look Forward to CPI Numbers • Japanese Yen Writes off 2Q Business Sentiment Report, Looks Ahead to BoJ Rate Decision • New Zealand Dollar Rallies Readily Responds to Risk Trends as Yield Forecasts Offsets Dour Data [Link]

Risk Appetite and Japanese Business Sentiment Push Crude Back Up to Trend-Defining Resistance

The zone of congestion that has developed for US oil between $76 and $75.50 has clearly become a point of contention for the speculative crowd. Looking at the fundamental backdrop for this hesitation, we have seen a significant rebound in risk appetite over the past week (which crude has been responsive to than many other asset classes); yet the fundamental and financial outlook for the global economy has not taken an equally encouraging turn for the better over the same period. [Link]

US Dollar Forecast to Pull Back Further versus Euro, British Pound

A significant correction in FX Options sentiment on the US Dollar suggests that the Greenback could continue to pull back versus the Euro, British Pound, and other major counterparts. After aggressively betting on and hedging against further US Dollar strength, options traders now show that they have shifted course on pairs such as the EURUSD and GBPUSD. [Link]

What is a "Higher Probability Entry"?

Student’s Question: Can you give an example of some of things (signals) you look for in what you refer to as a higher probability entry? Thanks. [Link]

GBP/USD: Trading the U.K. Consumer Price Report

As market participants expect the ongoing slack within the U.K. economy to temper the rise in price growth, a pullback in the consumer price index could give the central bank scope to maintain a dovish policy stance throughout the second-half of the year as it aims to encourage a sustainable recovery. [Link]

British Pound Tests 14800; Short Term Support at 14700

The GBPUSD has exceeded last week's high. Based on daily wave structure, an objective is 15060. 14710 is initial support. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 06-14

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 06-14

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 06-14

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Light Crude 06-14

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 06-14

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Gold 06-14

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Euro / US Dollar 06-14

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 06-14

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The DailyFX Economic Calendar

News releases can cause quite a bit of volatility but traders who prepare themselves are not necessarily surprised. [Link]

Forex Strategy Outlook: FX Volatility Decline Warns of Return to Rangebound Euro, US Dollar Markets

A sharp drop in volatility expectations suggests that forex traders expect US Dollar and Euro price action to slow down in the week ahead, clouding our strategy bias after a continued period of excess volatility. Our DailyFX 1-week volatility index has already seen its largest peak-to-trough decline since the height of the financial crisis, and a lull in price breakouts could clearly threaten our long-standing Breakout strategy bias. [Link]

Australian Dollar Extends Last Week’s Rally, Japanese Yen Weakens Against The Majors

The Australian dollar extended the rally from the previous week and is the best performing currency against the greenback on Monday, while the Japanese Yen weakened across the board following the rise in risk sentiment. [Link]

Bank Research Consensus Weekly 06.14.10

A 5% handle for global output growth? Notwithstanding the sovereign debt crisis that is rattling Europe and unnerving global financial markets, global economic growth has continued to surprise on the upside over the past few months, pretty much as we envisaged in last quarter's Global Forecast Snapshots (March 10, 2010). In fact, the cyclical momentum over the past couple of quarters has been even stronger than we anticipated in our above-consensus forecast, with global GDP growing at a very solid average annualised pace of more than 5% during 4Q09 and 1Q10, and probably only a touch less (4.6% saar) in the current quarter. Joachim Fels, Manoj Pradhan & Spyros Andreopoulos, Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley [Link]

EUR/CAD

The EUR/CAD daily chart has been showing a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows which means a downtrend and to look for selling opportunities. [Link]

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD continues to print a series of lower highs and lower lows which means a downtrend and a bearish bias. [Link]

Euro-Zone Industrial Production Topped Forecasts in April but Momentum Maybe Fading

Industrial production in the 16-member euro area exceeded economists’ forecasts in April. Output advanced 0.8 percent from March, when it rose by a revised 1.5 percent, while figures topped expectations for a 0.5 percent rise. At the same time, production jumped an annualized 9.5 percent after climbing an upward revision of 7.7 percent in March. [Link]

Daily Sound Bites 06.14

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A Quiet Day for Sentiment Translates into a Meaningful Reversal for Crude

The speculative markets would put in for a quiet close to an otherwise active trading week. Through the first four days of the week, risk appetite was steadily building until bullish interests really hit their stride Thursday. [Link]

Euro, British Pound Pare Friday’s Decline as Market Sentiment Improves

A rise in risk appetite pushed the major currencies higher against the U.S. dollar during the overnight trade, with the euro paring Friday’s decline to reach a high of 1.2255, and the greenback may continue to lose ground going into the North American session as market sentiment continues to drive price action in the foreign exchange market. [Link]

China Weekly 06.14

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Euro Bounce Gains Momentum On Improved Risk Sentiment

Although we have yet to complete one full session of trade in the week, market sentiment seems to have improved substantially, with currencies, commodities and equities finding some fresh bids and attempting to establish some form of a short-term base. [Link]

Opening Comment 06.14

Although we have yet to complete one full session of trade in the week, market sentiment seems to have improved substantially, with currencies, commodities and equities finding fresh bids and attempting to establish some form of a short-term base. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.14

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USD/JPY Classical 06.14

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USD/CHF Classical 06.14

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USD/CAD Classical 06.14

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NZD/USD Classical 06.14

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GBP/USD Classical 06.14

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GBP/JPY Classical 06.14

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EUR/USD Classical 06.14

While the overriding trend remains intensely bearish, the market looks to have finally found some form of a base by 1.1900, and is in the process of correcting from oversold levels. [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 06.14

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.14

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AUD/USD Classical 06.14

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Scandi Daily 06.14

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Opening Comment 06.14

Although we have yet to complete one full session of trade in the week, market sentiment seems to have improved substantially, with currencies, commodities and equities finding fresh bids and attempting to establish some form of a short-term base. [Link]

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Decline as Stocks Advance in Asian Trade

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen declined against their major counterparts as stocks advanced in Asian trade, sapping demand for safety-linked and funding currencies. Equity index futures hint more of the same ahead. [Link]

Crude Oil Holding Below Resistance, Gold Break Imminent

Crude oil and gold will be affected by the same technical levels we have been watching for awhile as we head into the new week. Though both commodities are susceptible to a break of recent trading ranges, gold's break looks imminent. [Link]

Japanese Large Manufacturers' Outlook Improved in the Second Quarter

Japan’s BSI Survey of large manufacturers showed sentiment firmed in the second quarter, with further improvement expected in the second half of the year, according to figures published by the Ministry of Finance. A gauge of domestic economic conditions rose the since the third quarter of last year while the one tracking employment fell the least since the fourth quarter of 2008. While the outcome seems to spell good news for Japan’s export-led recovery, other indicators including April’s labor market figures hint firms are becoming reluctant about future demand amid fears of a slowdown in China, hitherto the top engine of the boom in overseas sales, as Beijing seeks to slow the buoyant economy in a bid to contain runaway inflation . For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

NZ Dollar Shrugs Off Weak Retail Sales Data on Risk Appetite

New Zealand Retail Sales fell 0.3 percent in April, underperforming economists’ median forecasts calling for a narrower 0.2 percent decline. Department store sales led the metric lower, down 3.3 percent (NZ$11 million) from the previous month. The New Zealand Dollar shrugged off the outcome however, rising against most of its major counterparts as a rebound in risk appetite in Asian trade boosted carry-linked demand for higher-yielding currencies. A Credit Suisse gauge of priced-in monetary policy expectations now shows traders betting the RBNZ will raise interest rates by 164 basis points over the next 12 months, the most in the G10. For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_ne~ To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com [Link]

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 06.14.10

Dollar on the Cusp of a Major Reversal Awaits a Clear Sentiment Signal Euro Resilience Suggests Currency May Recover Further Against Dollar Japanese Yen May Neglect Risk Trends as BoJ Sets Monetary Policy British Pound to Decline on Soft Data Ahead of Emergency Budget Canadian Dollar Trend Favors Further Depreciation Australian Dollar Momentum Points to Further Gains New Zealand Dollar Remains Locked to Risk Appetite Gold Could Hold onto Gains Despite a Rebound in Risk Appetite [Link]

Dollar Will have to Wait for a Definitive Direction until Next Week as Sentiment Cools

• British Pound Tumbles following a Round of Questionably Bearish Data • Euro: Can the Mere Absence of Financial Tribulations Lead to a Recovery? • Japanese Yen May Find a Fundamental Accelerant to a Speculative Drive Next Week • Canadian Dollar Positioning Itself for Fundamental Strength Regardless of Sentiment Trends [Link]

A Quiet Day for Sentiment Translates into a Meaningful Reversal for Crude

Japanese Yen May Neglect Risk Trends as BoJ Sets Monetary Policy

The Japanese Yen weakened against most of majors following a rebound in market sentiment and the rise in risk appetite may continue to drag on the exchange rate over the following week, but comments from the Bank of Japan could spur increased volatility in the exchange rate as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold the benchmark interest rate at 0.10% next week as the world’s second largest economy struggles to shake off the recession, and the central bank may look to expand monetary policy further as Prime Minister Naoto Kan pledges to stem the risks for deflation. [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 06-11

The Yen crosses are poised to rally for the next several weeks. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 06-11

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 06-11

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 06-11

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Light Crude 06-11

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New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar 06-11

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Gold 06-11

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British Pound / US Dollar 06-11

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Australian Dollar / US Dollar 06-11

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Euro / Dollar Low May Be in Place; 12675 is Initial Objective

It looks as though a EURUSD low is in place for at least several weeks. [Link]

The Importance of the Risk:Reward Ratio

Trader A has a win percentage of 75% on all trades while trader B has a win percentage of closer to 40% on all trades. Which trader is more profitable? [Link]

EUR/NZD

The EUR/NZD has been printing a series of lower highs and lower lows since the high in February of 2009. [Link]

Euro Maintains Rally as Policy Makers Raise Economic Outlook, British Pound Halts Two-Day Rally

The Euro maintained the short-term rally from earlier this week and pushed to a high of 1.2140 during the overnight trade, and the exchange rate may continue to trend higher going into the U.S. trade as European policy makers hold an improved outlook for the region. [Link]

Currencies Looking to Build Momentum in Final Session of Week

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U.K. Manufacturing Disappoints, German Wholesale Prices Exceed Forecasts

Manufacturing production in the U.K. unexpectedly pushed lower in April for the first time in three months, with figures showing a 0.4 percent retracement after climbing a revised 2.6 percent the previous month. [Link]

Currencies Looking to Build Momentum in Final Session of Week

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EUR/USD Classical 06.11

While the overriding trend remains intensely bearish, the market looks to have finally found some form of a base by 1.1900, and is in the process of correcting from oversold levels. [Link]

Australian, New Zealand Dollars Sink as Chinese Inflation Hits 19-Month High

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars declined after China reported the highest inflation rate in 19 months, feeding fears that Beijing policymakers will step up efforts to cool the buoyant economy. [Link]

USD/JPY Classical 06.11

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USD/CHF Classical 06.11

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USd/CAD Classical 06.11

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NZD/USD Classical 06.11

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GBP/USD Classical 06.11

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GBP/JPY Classical 06.11

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EUR/JPY Classical 06.11

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.11

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AUD/USD Classical 06.11

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Scandi Daily 06.11

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Dollar Remains on the Defensive vs Major Currencies

EURUSD: Shallow Rebound Mounted at Trend Line USDJPY: Sellers Return, Eye Push Below 90.00 Level GBPUSD: Bulls Continue Testing Fib Resistance USDCAD: Trend Line Support Broken, 1.02 in Sight AUDUSD: Prices Confined in Wide Trading Range NZDUSD: Fib Resistance Falls, Hinting Further Gains [Link]

GBP/USD: Bulls Continue Testing Fib Resistance

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NZD/USD: Fib Resistance Falls, Hinting Further Gains

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USD/CAD: Trend Line Support Broken, 1.02 in Sight

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USD/JPY: Sellers Return, Eye Push Below 90.00 Level

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Opening Comment 06.11

The appetite for risk has improved dramatically over the past few sessions of trade, with a number of positive developments in the global macro economy helping to bolster the improved sentiment. [Link]

EUR/USD: Shallow Rebound Mounted at Trend Line

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AUD/USD: Prices Confined in Wide Trading Range

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Crude Oil on the Brink of Breaking Out, Gold Double Top Confirmed

Crude is at a critical technical level with a break to the upside exposing $80, while gold is due for another period of consolidation. [Link]

The Euro and Commodity Currencies Rally as ECB Guarantees, Chinese Data Quiet Crisis Concerns

Over the past six months the principal fundamental concern behind the bear market has evolved. What was originally a mere retracement on a overextended 2009 rally would evolve into fears over the health of the outperforming economies (i.e. China), then uncertainty surrounding sovereign credit risk with ballooning deficits and finally the specific concerns that the next financial crisis could spread from the European Union. [Link]

Dollar Threatens Bearish Reversal as Risk Appetite Bolstered by Speculative Interests, Euro Stability

• Dollar Threatens Bearish Reversal as Risk Appetite Bolstered by Speculative Interests, Euro Stability • Euro Finds Strength in ECB Promises of Loose Monetary Policy, EU Open-Ended Vow on Rescue Plan • British Pound Rallies as Yield Appetite Rises and the BoE Avoids Further Stimulus Efforts • Japanese Yen’s Reaction to a Rise in Speculative Activity Tempered by Growth Data • Australian Dollar Rallies after Another Rise in Employment Bolsters Growth, Rate Forecasts [Link]

Risk Appetite Finds Conviction, Drives Crude to a One-Month High

Risk appetite accelerated through Thursday’s active trading sessions; and naturally, the speculative appeal of crude would lead to impressive gains up through the active US session. Taking stock of the commodity’s performance on the day, the active NYMEX futures contract climbed for a fourth consecutive day. [Link]

Trading Style

Student's Question: Would you mind telling us your trading pattern. Do you trade through daily charts only? stop? etc. Could you also explain the best way to enter a trade that is identified on a daily chart. Should 4 hr & 1hr chart indicators should be showing the momentum in the same direction or need not to bother. I often get confused as to what chart to use for entries and exits. Because sometimes some trades I feel comfortable entering in but when I move to 1 hr chart that shows indicators moving the price in the opposite direction. Can I just follow daily to indentify the trade for 1 to 5 days and make an entry using 4 hr chart and not bother about 1hr chart. What is your suggestion? Thanks [Link]

EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. Advance Retail Sales Report

As household spending in the world’s largest economy is expected to improve for the eighth consecutive month in May, the rise in personal expenditures is likely to stoke increased volatility in the exchange rate as private sector consumption remains one of the leading drivers of growth. [Link]

Will the U.S. Dollar Respond to a Jump in Retail Sales Following the “Rise” in NFP’s?

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British Pound Fails to React to BoE Interest Rate Decision, ECB Maintains Current Policy

The Bank of England held the benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at GBP 200B, but the British Pound showed little reaction to the rate decision as the central bank refrained from releasing a policy statement. [Link]

AUD/USD Range May Signal Return of Risk Aversion

Considering the upper bound of the current range doesn’t possess the validity of the support level traders should be nimble with their entry point. We could see current bullish sentiment stall at 0.8500 which would justify an entry at that time. [Link]

EUR/GBP's Test of Support May Present Scalping Opportunity

The BoE and ECB both left their benchmark rates unchanged today with President Trichet deeming current rates appropriate. The U.K. MPC was expected to remain on hold with the new government’s June 22nd scheduled release of their emergency budget. [Link]

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD daily chart shows a market that has changed from a strong uptrend to a potential downtrend. [Link]

Euro Forecast to Recover Against Dollar on Shift in Forex Sentiment

EURUSD – Euro Forecast to Recover Against US Dollar GBPUSD – British Pound Outlook Bullish on Sentiment USDJPY – Japanese Yen Expected to Decline against USD USDCHF – Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Calls for Gains GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast Remains Bullish Against Yen View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum . [Link]

British Pound Outlook Bullish on Sentiment

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Euro Forecast to Recover Against US Dollar

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British Pound Forecast Remains Bullish Against Yen

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Euro Forecast to Recover Against Dollar on Shift in Forex Sentiment

Canadian Dollar Forecast Calls for Gains

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Swiss Franc May Strengthen against Dollar

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Japanese Yen Expected to Decline against USD

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Australian Dollar Soars; Triangle or Flat Underway

The AUDUSD has soared, and is closing in on its July high (8527). The extent of the advance suggests that either a triangle or flat is underway. [Link]

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 06-10

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc 06-10

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US Dollar / Canadian Dollar 06-10

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Light Crude 06-10

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New Zealand Dollar/ US Dollar 06-10

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Gold 06-10

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British Pound / US Dollar 06-10

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Euro / US Dollar 06-10

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Scalping Trade Strategies June 10, 2010 EUR/GBP’s Test of Support May Present Scalping Opportunity

USD/CHF

Another good example of North American strength and European weakness is the uptrend in the USD/CHF. [Link]

British Pound Fails to React to BoE Interest Rate Decision, ECB Maintains Current Policy

Daily Sound Bites 06.10

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Scandi Daily 06.10

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ECB, BoE Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged

The Bank of England held rates at 0.50 percent in June for the fifteen consecutive month. At the same time, policy makers refrained from expanding their asset purchase program as quantitative easing remained unchanged at 200 billion pounds. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank kept their key overnight lending rate unchanged at 1.00 percent amid ballooning budget deficits. [Link]

BOE Maintains Rates and Quantitative Easing

Euro Rallies as Market Attempts to Buy Back into Risk

Despite the moderately lower close in US equities on Wednesday, there is a growing sense of a shift in the construct of the markets which could once again favor risk buying. [Link]

USD Graphic Rewind 06.10

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USD/JPY Classical 06.10

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USD/CHF Classical 06.10

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USD/CAD Classical 06.10

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NZD/USD Classical 06.10

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GBP/USD Classical 06.10

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GBP/JPY Classical 06.10

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EUR/USD Classical 06.10

While the overriding trend remains intensely bearish, the market looks to have finally found some form of a base by 1.1900, and is in the process of correcting from oversold levels [Link]

EUR/JPY Classical 06.10

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EUR/CHF Classical 06.10

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AUD/USD Classical 06.10

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Euro and British Pound Rise Ahead of ECB, BOE Interest Rate Decisions

The Euro and the British Pound rose ahead of interest rate announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England despite widespread expectations calling for no change in monetary policy. [Link]

Scandi Daily 06.10

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Opening Comment 06.10

Despite the moderately lower close in US equities on Wednesday, there is a growing sense of a shift in the construct of the markets which could once again favor risk buying [Link]

Dollar Holds Off from Reversing Bear Trend as Dow Slips Back Below 10,000

• Dollar Holds Off from Reversing Bear Trend as Dow Slips Back Below 10,000 • Euro Encouraged by Speculative Sentiment, Successful Portuguese Debt Auction • British Pound Encouraged by Fiscal Policy Vows, Traders Turn to Thursday’s BoE Decision • New Zealand Dollar Posts Tempered Rally after RBNZ Announces Hike, Hawkish Commentary • Australian Dollar Undermined by Confidence Data, Will Employment Data Compensate? [Link]

Crude Oil Retests $75 Resistance before Backing Down, Gold Licking its Wounds

As stocks decide whether to break down to new multi-month lows, oil stays comfortably above its key support levels. $75 resistance will be a tough nut to crack. [Link]

Dollar Holds Off from Reversing Bear Trend as Dow Slips Back Below 10,000

Just as Surely as Sentiment Cooled Wednesday, Crude's Rally Would Fall Short of a Critical Break

A notable advance in risk appetite through the first half of Wednesday’s trading session would leverage a strong rally from US crude. Gauging the level of sentiment across the capital markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average found its way back above 10,000 through the early trading hours of the New York session while EURUSD extended its own advance. Yet, the bullish implications from both of these moves would pale in comparison to the 4.1 percent intraday rally to the session high for the active futures contract. [Link]

Dollar Advance Requires Greater Forecast Differentials, More Fear

Over the past seven months, the US dollar has advanced as much as 3,240 points against its primary counterpart: the euro. This move is remarkable not only for the ground covered; but the rate at which this swing has occurred. [Link]

New Zealand Dollar Rallies as RBNZ Raises Rates

The New Zealand Dollar rallied sharply against the US Dollar and other counterparts as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates and effectively signaled it would continue raising them through the medium term. [Link]

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook 06-09

Rallies in the Yen crosses are corrective and the downside is favored. [Link]

British Pound Looks Past BoE Rate Decision, Follows Risks Trends

The Pound has started to give back earlier gains as risk appetite has started to fade after a strong start on the back of strong Chinese exports and comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the European debt crisis would have only a “modest” impact on the U.S. economy. Equity markets which had been in positive territory for most of the day turned negative confirming the outlook for growth continues to dim. [Link]

GBP/USD: Trading the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

As the new coalition in the U.K. aims to tackle the ballooning budget deficit, the central bank is widely expected to support the economy going into the second-half of the year as policy makers continue to see a risk for a protracted recovery. [Link]

NZD/USD Range May Limit Post RBNZ Rate Hike Gains

We will wait for the post rate decision volatility to quiet before taking a position in order to get a gauge on the longer-term trend. A sharp retracement following a spike higher is expected if the RBNZ hints that they will be measured in their tightening policy similar to the BoC as opposed to the consecutive rate hikes that the RBA executed. [Link]

ECB to Keep Rates Unchanged Amid Ballooning Budget Deficits

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New Zealand Dollar Benefits From Shift in Risk Sentiment, Japanese Yen Pares Advance

The New Zealand dollar is the best performing currency against the greenback on Wednesday, with the exchange rate rallying to a high of 0.6746, while the Japanese Yen pared the overnight advance and weakened across the board following a shift in market sentiment. [Link]

A Range Bound USD/JPY Presents Ideal Scalping Environment

The USD/JPY has settled into a tight range as an impressive increase in Chinese exports has eased concerns over global growth. However, the 50.0% rise in demand from abroad in May from the Asian giant has failed to generate sustainable risk appetite leaving the pair in limbo.
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