{"id":289,"date":"2026-07-14T11:53:39","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T06:53:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/?post_type=community-post&#038;p=289"},"modified":"2026-07-14T12:00:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T07:00:32","slug":"us-cpi-forecast-what-to-watch","status":"publish","type":"community-post","link":"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/community-post\/us-cpi-forecast-what-to-watch\/","title":{"rendered":"US CPI Forecast: What to Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All eyes are on the June US CPI release today at 8:30 a.m. EST. The biggest macro event of the week. Headline inflation is expected to ease as energy prices fall, but the main focus is core inflation and whether price pressures are spreading more broadly. The US dollar remains fundamentally strong, although crowded long positioning means a weak CPI print could trigger a sharper pullback. Warsh\u2019s comments after the release could also shape the market\u2019s first policy reaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consensus expectations:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Headline CPI MoM: -0.1% (range: -0.3% to 0.3%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Headline CPI YoY: 3.8% (range: 3.6% to 4.0%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Core CPI MoM: 0.2% (range: 0.0% to 0.4%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Core CPI YoY: 2.9% (range: 2.8% to 3.0%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What matters most:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 If CPI is soft, the dollar could weaken as traders scale back hawkish Fed bets. That may support gold and pressure USDJPY lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 If CPI is hot, the market may lean more hawkish. EURUSD could stay under pressure, while gold may weaken as yields and the dollar rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Warsh and Waller matter too. If Warsh sounds cautious, hawkish pricing may ease. If he backs tighter policy, rate hike expectations could strengthen. Waller has already warned that stronger core inflation may require stricter policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 If the data is mixed, price action may turn choppy, with markets waiting for clearer guidance from Warsh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forexsource.net\">forexsource.net<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"579\" src=\"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs-1024x579.png\" alt=\"cpi forecast fs\" class=\"wp-image-290\" title=\"US CPI Forecast: What to Watch\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs-1024x579.png 1024w, https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;autoclose&quot;: false, &quot;accordionItems&quot;: [] }\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/accordion\" role=\"group\" class=\"wp-block-accordion is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-is-layout-flow\">\n<div data-wp-class--is-open=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;id&quot;: &quot;accordion-item-4&quot;, &quot;openByDefault&quot;: false }\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.initAccordionItems\" data-wp-on-window--hashchange=\"callbacks.hashChange\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-item is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-item-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading\"><button aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"accordion-item-4-panel\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.toggle\" data-wp-on--keydown=\"actions.handleKeyDown\" id=\"accordion-item-4\" type=\"button\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle\"><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-title\">Urdu<\/span><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+<\/span><\/button><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div inert aria-labelledby=\"accordion-item-4\" data-wp-bind--inert=\"!state.isOpen\" id=\"accordion-item-4-panel\" role=\"region\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-panel is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-panel-is-layout-flow\">\n<div dir=\"rtl\" style=\"text-align: right;\">\n\u0622\u062c \u0635\u0628\u062d 8:30 \u0628\u062c\u06d2 EST \u067e\u0631 \u062c\u0648\u0646 \u06a9\u06cc US CPI \u0631\u067e\u0648\u0631\u0679 \u0622\u0646\u06d2 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0633 \u0648\u0642\u062a \u0633\u0628 \u06a9\u06cc \u0646\u0638\u0631\u06cc\u06ba \u0627\u0633\u06cc \u067e\u0631 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4 \u06cc\u06c1 \u0627\u0633 \u06c1\u0641\u062a\u06d2 \u06a9\u0627 \u0633\u0628 \u0633\u06d2 \u0628\u0691\u0627 macro event \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u06cc\u06c1 \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 energy prices \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u06a9\u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u06cc \u0648\u062c\u06c1 \u0633\u06d2 headline inflation \u06a9\u0686\u06be \u0646\u0631\u0645 \u0622\u0626\u06d2 \u06af\u06cc\u060c \u0644\u06cc\u06a9\u0646 \u0627\u0635\u0644 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u06c1 core inflation \u067e\u0631 \u06c1\u06d2 \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0633 \u0628\u0627\u062a \u067e\u0631 \u06a9\u06c1 \u06a9\u06cc\u0627 price pressures \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 \u0648\u0633\u06cc\u0639 \u067e\u06cc\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06d2 \u067e\u0631 \u067e\u06be\u06cc\u0644 \u0631\u06c1\u06cc \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u06cc\u0627 \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4<br><br>\n\nUS dollar \u0628\u0646\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06cc \u0637\u0648\u0631 \u067e\u0631 \u0627\u0628 \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0645\u0636\u0628\u0648\u0637 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0644\u06cc\u06a9\u0646 \u0686\u0648\u0646\u06a9\u06c1 long positioning \u06a9\u0627\u0641\u06cc crowded \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0627\u0633 \u0644\u06cc\u06d2 \u0627\u06af\u0631 CPI \u06a9\u0645\u0632\u0648\u0631 \u0622\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2 \u062a\u0648 dollar \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0646\u0633\u0628\u062a\u0627\u064b \u062a\u06cc\u0632 pullback \u062f\u06cc\u06a9\u06be\u0646\u06d2 \u06a9\u0648 \u0645\u0644 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\nrelease \u06a9\u06d2 \u0628\u0639\u062f Warsh \u06a9\u06d2 comments \u0628\u06be\u06cc market \u06a9\u06d2 \u0627\u0628\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0626\u06cc policy reaction \u067e\u0631 \u0627\u062b\u0631 \u0688\u0627\u0644 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4<br><br>\n\nConsensus expectations:<br><br>\n\n\u2022 Headline CPI MoM: -0.1% (range: -0.3% \u0633\u06d2 0.3% \u062a\u06a9)<br><br>\n\n\u2022 Headline CPI YoY: 3.8% (range: 3.6% \u0633\u06d2 4.0% \u062a\u06a9)<br><br>\n\n\u2022 Core CPI MoM: 0.2% (range: 0.0% \u0633\u06d2 0.4% \u062a\u06a9)<br><br>\n\n\u2022 Core CPI YoY: 2.9% (range: 2.8% \u0633\u06d2 3.0% \u062a\u06a9)<br><br>\n\n\u0633\u0628 \u0633\u06d2 \u0627\u06c1\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u062a\u06cc\u06ba:<br><br>\n\n\u2022 \u0627\u06af\u0631 CPI soft \u0622\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2 \u062a\u0648 dollar \u06a9\u0645\u0632\u0648\u0631 \u06c1\u0648 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06cc\u0648\u0646\u06a9\u06c1 traders hawkish Fed bets \u06a9\u0645 \u06a9\u0631 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4 \u0627\u0633 \u0633\u06d2 gold \u06a9\u0648 support \u0645\u0644 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2 \u0627\u0648\u0631 USDJPY \u067e\u0631 \u0646\u06cc\u0686\u06d2 \u06a9\u06cc \u0637\u0631\u0641 \u062f\u0628\u0627\u0624 \u0622 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 \u0627\u06af\u0631 CPI hot \u0622\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2 \u062a\u0648 market \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 hawkish \u0637\u0631\u0641 \u062c\u0627 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4 \u0627\u0633 \u0635\u0648\u0631\u062a \u0645\u06cc\u06ba EURUSD \u062f\u0628\u0627\u0624 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0631\u06c1 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u062c\u0628\u06a9\u06c1 yields \u0627\u0648\u0631 dollar \u0628\u0691\u06be\u0646\u06d2 \u0633\u06d2 gold \u06a9\u0645\u0632\u0648\u0631 \u06c1\u0648 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 Warsh \u0627\u0648\u0631 Waller \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0627\u06c1\u0645 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4 \u0627\u06af\u0631 Warsh \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0627\u0637 \u0644\u06c1\u062c\u06d2 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0628\u0627\u062a \u06a9\u0631\u062a\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u062a\u0648 hawkish pricing \u0646\u0631\u0645 \u067e\u0691 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4 \u0627\u06af\u0631 \u0648\u06c1 tighter policy \u06a9\u06cc \u062d\u0645\u0627\u06cc\u062a \u06a9\u0631\u062a\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u062a\u0648 rate hike expectations \u0645\u0632\u06cc\u062f \u0645\u0636\u0628\u0648\u0637 \u06c1\u0648 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4 Waller \u067e\u06c1\u0644\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc \u062e\u0628\u0631\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u06a9\u0631 \u0686\u06a9\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u06a9\u06c1 stronger core inflation \u06a9\u06cc \u0635\u0648\u0631\u062a \u0645\u06cc\u06ba stricter policy \u06a9\u06cc \u0636\u0631\u0648\u0631\u062a \u067e\u0691 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 \u0627\u06af\u0631 data mixed \u0622\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2 \u062a\u0648 price action choppy \u06c1\u0648 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0627\u0648\u0631 market \u0634\u0627\u06cc\u062f Warsh \u0633\u06d2 \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d guidance \u06a9\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0638\u0627\u0631 \u06a9\u0631\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US CPI forecast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":290,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","community-forum":[20],"class_list":["post-289","community-post","type-community-post","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","community-forum-forum-usd"],"tpgb_featured_images":{"full":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs.png",1200,678,false],"tp-image-grid":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs.png",700,396,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs-300x170.png",300,170,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs-768x434.png",768,434,true],"large":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/CPI-Forecast-Fs-1024x579.png",1024,579,true],"default":"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/plugins\/the-plus-addons-for-block-editor\/assets\/images\/tpgb-placeholder.jpg"},"tpgb_post_meta_info":{"get_date":"July 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