{"id":147,"date":"2026-06-22T18:43:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T13:43:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/?post_type=community-post&#038;p=147"},"modified":"2026-06-22T18:43:21","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T13:43:21","slug":"ecb-holds-neutral-hawkish-tone-supports-euro-outlook","status":"publish","type":"community-post","link":"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/community-post\/ecb-holds-neutral-hawkish-tone-supports-euro-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB Holds Neutral, Hawkish Tone Supports Euro Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>From a market perspective, the ECB still looks broadly neutral for now, with the policy rate at 2.25% and the July 23 meeting widely expected to deliver no change.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even so, the underlying tone across ECB policymakers still leans slightly hawkish, as more officials remain worried about inflation than about growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>That matters for traders because it suggests the ECB is not in a rush to ease and still sees inflation as the main policy risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lagarde\u2019s message was that the ECB will stay data-driven and decide meeting by meeting, with no preset path for rates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>She also signalled that the recent shock is meaningful, but not yet strong enough to create lasting inflation pressure or justify a stronger policy response right now.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In simple terms, the ECB is comfortable staying patient for now, but it is not sounding dovish.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Compared with the Fed and the BOE, the ECB appears to have more room to raise rates if inflation stays sticky.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market pricing also reflects that view, with around 47bp of tightening expected by the end of 2026 and roughly 55bp through 2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>That suggests traders still see rate hikes as possible in 2026, before around two cuts are priced in for 2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lagarde also warned that inflation could stay above 3% for the rest of the year, which helps explain why the ECB still sounds cautious on easing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>At the same time, the eurozone economy is holding up better than feared, with stable employment, rising real incomes, and only a moderate shock so far.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Her comment that the upper end of the neutral range is around 2.25% to 2.5% also matters, because it implies policy is near neutral, not deeply restrictive.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>For traders, the takeaway is that the ECB is on hold for now, but the broader tone still supports the euro more than a clearly dovish central bank would.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div dir=\"rtl\" style=\"text-align: right;\">\n\u2022 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0679 \u06a9\u06d2 \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0633\u06d2 \u0627\u0628\u06be\u06cc \u06a9\u06d2 \u0644\u06cc\u06d2 ECB \u06a9\u0627\u0641\u06cc \u062d\u062f \u062a\u06a9 neutral \u0644\u06af \u0631\u06c1\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4 policy rate 2.25% \u067e\u0631 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0627\u0648\u0631 23 July \u06a9\u06cc meeting \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 \u0627\u0645\u06a9\u0627\u0646 \u06cc\u06c1\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 \u06a9\u0648\u0626\u06cc \u062a\u0628\u062f\u06cc\u0644\u06cc \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u06c1\u0648\u06af\u06cc\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 \u067e\u06be\u0631 \u0628\u06be\u06cc ECB \u06a9\u06d2 policymakers \u06a9\u06cc \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u06cc tone \u0627\u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u062a\u06be\u0648\u0691\u06cc hawkish \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u06a9\u06cc\u0648\u0646\u06a9\u06c1 growth \u06a9\u06d2 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u06d2 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba inflation \u06a9\u06d2 \u0628\u0627\u0631\u06d2 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0641\u06a9\u0631\u0645\u0646\u062f officials \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0622\u062a\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 traders \u06a9\u06d2 \u0644\u06cc\u06d2 \u06cc\u06c1 \u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0633 \u0644\u06cc\u06d2 \u0627\u06c1\u0645 \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06cc\u0648\u0646\u06a9\u06c1 \u0627\u0633 \u0633\u06d2 \u0644\u06af\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 ECB \u062c\u0644\u062f\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u06ba easing \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u06a9\u0631\u0646\u0627 \u0686\u0627\u06c1\u062a\u0627 \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0628 \u0628\u06be\u06cc inflation \u06a9\u0648 \u0633\u0628 \u0633\u06d2 \u0628\u0691\u0627 policy risk \u0633\u0645\u062c\u06be \u0631\u06c1\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 Lagarde \u06a9\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u063a\u0627\u0645 \u06cc\u06c1 \u062a\u06be\u0627 \u06a9\u06c1 ECB data-driven \u0631\u06c1\u06d2 \u06af\u0627 \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u06c1\u0631 meeting \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0627\u0644\u06af \u0641\u06cc\u0635\u0644\u06c1 \u06a9\u0631\u06d2 \u06af\u0627\u060c rates \u06a9\u06d2 \u0644\u06cc\u06d2 \u067e\u06c1\u0644\u06d2 \u0633\u06d2 \u06a9\u0648\u0626\u06cc \u0637\u06d2 \u0634\u062f\u06c1 \u0631\u0627\u0633\u062a\u06c1 \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 \u0627\u0646\u06c1\u0648\u06ba \u0646\u06d2 \u06cc\u06c1 \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u06c1 \u062f\u06cc\u0627 \u06a9\u06c1 \u062d\u0627\u0644\u06cc\u06c1 shock \u0627\u06c1\u0645 \u0636\u0631\u0648\u0631 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0645\u06af\u0631 \u0627\u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0627\u062a\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0636\u0628\u0648\u0637 \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u06a9\u06c1 \u0645\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644 inflation pressure \u067e\u06cc\u062f\u0627 \u06a9\u0631\u06d2 \u06cc\u0627 \u0627\u0633 \u0648\u0642\u062a \u06a9\u0633\u06cc \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 \u0633\u062e\u062a policy response \u06a9\u0648 justify \u06a9\u0631\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 \u0633\u0627\u062f\u06c1 \u0644\u0641\u0638\u0648\u06ba \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0628\u0627\u062a \u06a9\u0631\u06cc\u06ba \u062a\u0648 ECB \u0627\u0628\u06be\u06cc patience \u06a9\u06d2 \u0633\u0627\u062a\u06be \u0628\u06cc\u0679\u06be\u0646\u06d2 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba comfortable \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0644\u06cc\u06a9\u0646 \u0627\u0633 \u06a9\u06cc \u0628\u0627\u062a\u0648\u06ba \u0633\u06d2 dovish \u062a\u0627\u062b\u0631 \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u0622 \u0631\u06c1\u0627\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 Fed \u0627\u0648\u0631 BOE \u06a9\u06d2 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u06d2 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba ECB \u06a9\u06d2 \u067e\u0627\u0633 rates \u0628\u0691\u06be\u0627\u0646\u06d2 \u06a9\u06cc \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 \u06af\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0626\u0634 \u062f\u06a9\u06be\u0627\u0626\u06cc \u062f\u06cc\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0627\u06af\u0631 inflation sticky \u0631\u06c1\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 market pricing \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u06cc \u0637\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u06c1 \u06a9\u0631\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u062c\u06c1\u0627\u06ba 2026 \u06a9\u06d2 \u0622\u062e\u0631 \u062a\u06a9 \u062a\u0642\u0631\u06cc\u0628\u0627\u064b 47bp tightening \u0627\u0648\u0631 2027 \u062a\u06a9 \u0642\u0631\u06cc\u0628 55bp \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 \u0627\u0633 \u06a9\u0627 \u0645\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u06cc\u06c1 \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 traders \u0627\u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0628\u06be\u06cc 2026 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba rate hikes \u06a9\u0627 \u0627\u0645\u06a9\u0627\u0646 \u062f\u06cc\u06a9\u06be \u0631\u06c1\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u060c \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0633 \u06a9\u06d2 \u0628\u0639\u062f 2027 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u062a\u0642\u0631\u06cc\u0628\u0627\u064b \u062f\u0648 cuts price in \u06a9\u06cc\u06d2 \u06af\u0626\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 Lagarde \u0646\u06d2 \u06cc\u06c1 \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u062e\u0628\u0631\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u06a9\u06cc\u0627 \u06a9\u06c1 inflation \u0633\u0627\u0644 \u06a9\u06d2 \u0628\u0627\u0642\u06cc \u062d\u0635\u06d2 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba 3% \u0633\u06d2 \u0627\u0648\u067e\u0631 \u0631\u06c1 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u06cc\u06c1\u06cc \u0628\u0627\u062a \u0633\u0645\u062c\u06be\u0627\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 ECB easing \u06a9\u06d2 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u06d2 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0627\u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0627\u0637 \u06a9\u06cc\u0648\u06ba \u0644\u06af \u0631\u06c1\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 \u062f\u0648\u0633\u0631\u06cc \u0637\u0631\u0641 eurozone \u06a9\u06cc economy \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0633\u06d2 \u0628\u06c1\u062a\u0631 \u0686\u0644 \u0631\u06c1\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u060c employment stable \u06c1\u06d2\u060c real incomes \u0628\u0691\u06be \u0631\u06c1\u06cc \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u060c \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0628\u06be\u06cc \u062a\u06a9 shock \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0635\u0631\u0641 moderate \u0631\u06c1\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 \u0627\u0646 \u06a9\u06cc \u06cc\u06c1 \u0628\u0627\u062a \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0627\u06c1\u0645 \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 neutral range \u06a9\u0627 upper end \u062a\u0642\u0631\u06cc\u0628\u0627\u064b 2.25% \u0633\u06d2 2.5% \u06a9\u06d2 \u0622\u0633 \u067e\u0627\u0633 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u06a9\u06cc\u0648\u0646\u06a9\u06c1 \u0627\u0633 \u0633\u06d2 \u067e\u062a\u0627 \u0686\u0644\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 policy \u0627\u0628 neutral \u06a9\u06d2 \u0642\u0631\u06cc\u0628 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0628\u06c1\u062a \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 restrictive \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4<br><br>\n\n\u2022 traders \u06a9\u06d2 \u0644\u06cc\u06d2 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u06c1 \u06cc\u06c1 \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 ECB \u0627\u0628\u06be\u06cc hold \u067e\u0631 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0644\u06cc\u06a9\u0646 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u06cc tone \u067e\u06be\u0631 \u0628\u06be\u06cc euro \u06a9\u0648 \u0627\u06cc\u06a9 \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d dovish central bank \u06a9\u06d2 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u06d2 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 support \u062f\u06cc\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<br><br>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS.png\" alt=\"ECB FS\" class=\"wp-image-148\" title=\"ECB Holds Neutral, Hawkish Tone Supports Euro Outlook\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS.png 1024w, https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u2022 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0679 \u06a9\u06d2 \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0633\u06d2 \u0627\u0628\u06be\u06cc \u06a9\u06d2 \u0644\u06cc\u06d2 ECB \u06a9\u0627\u0641\u06cc \u062d\u062f \u062a\u06a9 neutral \u0644\u06af \u0631\u06c1\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4 policy rate 2.25% \u067e\u0631 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0627\u0648\u0631 23 July \u06a9\u06cc meeting \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 \u0627\u0645\u06a9\u0627\u0646 \u06cc\u06c1\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 \u06a9\u0648\u0626\u06cc \u062a\u0628\u062f\u06cc\u0644\u06cc \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u06c1\u0648\u06af\u06cc\u06d4 \u2022 \u067e\u06be\u0631 \u0628\u06be\u06cc ECB \u06a9\u06d2 policymakers \u06a9\u06cc \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u06cc tone \u0627\u0628\u06be\u06cc \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u062a\u06be\u0648\u0691\u06cc hawkish \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u06a9\u06cc\u0648\u0646\u06a9\u06c1 growth \u06a9\u06d2 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u06d2 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":148,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","community-forum":[8],"class_list":["post-147","community-post","type-community-post","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","community-forum-forum-eur"],"tpgb_featured_images":{"full":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS.png",1024,1024,false],"tp-image-grid":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS.png",700,700,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS-300x300.png",300,300,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS-768x768.png",768,768,true],"large":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ECB-FS.png",1024,1024,false],"default":"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/plugins\/the-plus-addons-for-block-editor\/assets\/images\/tpgb-placeholder.jpg"},"tpgb_post_meta_info":{"get_date":"June 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