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BoC interest rate unchanged


Breaking: BoC kept interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected.

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WTI crude oil’s outlook remains neutral to bullish

WTI crude oil’s outlook remains neutral to bullish.

Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz are helping sustain a geopolitical risk premium, which is offsetting concerns about weak demand.

Although the proposed 20% transit toll was withdrawn, the US naval blockade and retaliatory military actions continue to pose risks to supply chains and support supply-related anxiety.

As a result, these persistent geopolitical tensions have helped create a firm price floor and are maintaining an upward bias in WTI prices.

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What should you know today July 15, 2026

US June CPI came in softer than expected, weighing on the US dollar and lifting stocks as inflation pressures eased.

Middle East tensions remain elevated after US strikes on Iran. Oil prices stay high, with President Trump warning of possible attacks on energy infrastructure next week.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the fight against inflation is not over despite the softer CPI report. Markets now await his second day of testimony.

US June PPI data is due today, with Core PPI expected to edge higher and provide another key inflation signal.

China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3%, while investment contracted sharply. Industrial production and retail sales were comparatively stronger.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey urged the new UK government to focus on boosting economic growth.

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.25%, with markets also watching policymakers’ comments on the US economic outlook.

The financial landscape is marked by easing inflation pressures in the US, rising tensions in the Middle East affecting oil prices, and global economic growth concerns, particularly in China and the UK.

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US CPI Cools, But Is the Market Looking in the Rear-View Mirror?

The softer-than-expected US inflation report improved market sentiment and supported risk assets.

The moderation was driven primarily by lower energy prices during June, while underlying inflation also continued to ease.

However, the CPI report is backward-looking and reflects June conditions. Since then, energy prices and geopolitical risks have evolved, meaning the latest data may not fully capture current inflation pressures.

The report reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike, but policymakers are still likely to maintain a restrictive stance until there is clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward target.

Traders should remain focused on upcoming inflation releases, US labor market data, and developments in energy markets, as these will be critical in shaping the Fed’s next policy decisions.

Bottom Line: The CPI report was a positive surprise for markets, but it may already be outdated. Whether the rally can continue will depend on incoming data rather than the June inflation print alone.

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• امریکہ کی inflation report توقع سے زیادہ نرم آئی، جس سے market sentiment بہتر ہوا اور risk assets کو سہارا ملا۔

• یہ نرمی زیادہ تر جون میں energy prices کم ہونے کی وجہ سے آئی، جبکہ underlying inflation میں بھی کمی کا سلسلہ جاری رہا۔

• لیکن CPI report پچھلے مہینے کی صورتحال دکھاتی ہے اور یہ جون کے حالات پر مبنی ہے۔ اس کے بعد سے energy prices اور geopolitical risks بدل چکے ہیں، اس لیے ممکن ہے کہ یہ تازہ data موجودہ inflation pressures کو پوری طرح ظاہر نہ کرتا ہو۔

• اس report کے بعد فوری Federal Reserve rate hike کی توقعات کم ہوئی ہیں، لیکن پھر بھی امکان یہی ہے کہ policymakers سخت پالیسی برقرار رکھیں گے جب تک زیادہ واضح ثبوت نہ مل جائے کہ inflation مستقل طور پر target کی طرف آ رہی ہے۔

• traders کو آنے والی inflation releases، US labor market data، اور energy markets میں ہونے والی پیش رفت پر نظر رکھنی چاہیے، کیونکہ یہی چیزیں Fed کے اگلے policy decisions بنانے میں اہم کردار ادا کریں گی۔

• خلاصہ یہ ہے کہ CPI report markets کے لیے ایک اچھی surprise تھی، لیکن ممکن ہے یہ پہلے ہی کچھ پرانی ہو چکی ہو۔ rally آگے چلتی ہے یا نہیں، یہ جون کی inflation print اکیلے نہیں بلکہ آنے والے data پر depend کرے گا۔

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Jul 14, 2026

What you should know for today.

Geopolitical Conflict: Crude oil prices are surging due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, specifically regarding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

US Economic Data: Investors are awaiting the release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to show a softening in annual inflation to 3.8%.

Federal Reserve Policy: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before the US House Financial Services Committee.

Recent comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggest a hawkish stance, with potential for rate hikes if core inflation remains high.

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