{"id":137,"date":"2026-06-21T20:31:14","date_gmt":"2026-06-21T15:31:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/?post_type=community-post&#038;p=137"},"modified":"2026-06-21T20:31:20","modified_gmt":"2026-06-21T15:31:20","slug":"canada-cpi-monday-focus-and-trade-implications","status":"publish","type":"community-post","link":"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/community-post\/canada-cpi-monday-focus-and-trade-implications\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada CPI (Monday): Focus and trade implications"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The main market focus is on\u00a0<strong>core inflation<\/strong>, not the headline CPI number.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Bank of Canada pays more attention to its preferred core measures:\u00a0<strong>CPI median<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>CPI trim<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>These core measures have been\u00a0<strong>gradually moving lower<\/strong>\u00a0and are now close to the Bank of Canada\u2019s\u00a0<strong>2% target<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This makes current market pricing for a\u00a0<strong>year-end rate hike<\/strong>\u00a0look less convincing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The\u00a0<strong>Bank of Canada policy rate is 2.3%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>At the next meeting on\u00a0<strong>July 15<\/strong>, the market expects the Bank to\u00a0<strong>keep rates unchanged<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets are also pricing around\u00a0<strong>87 basis points of rate cuts through 2027<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Overall, the Bank of Canada is seen as\u00a0<strong>neutral<\/strong>, with no clear bias toward either\u00a0<strong>tightening or easing<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Bank has acknowledged\u00a0<strong>economic weakness<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>uncertainty<\/strong>, but this does\u00a0<strong>not<\/strong>\u00a0point to a recession at this stage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Slower growth<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>lower oil prices<\/strong>\u00a0are both negative for the Canadian outlook and reduce the case for tighter policy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Trade implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>USD\/CAD<\/strong>\u00a0has strong upside momentum and has already broken above the previous\u00a0<strong>double-top near 1.4120<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The preferred bullish setup is a\u00a0<strong>soft Canadian CPI\/core print<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A weaker inflation reading could push markets to further price out hawkish expectations and support\u00a0<strong>more upside in USD\/CAD<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If CPI comes in\u00a0<strong>hot<\/strong>, the upside move in USD\/CAD may fade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In that case, watch for a\u00a0<strong>false break higher<\/strong>\u00a0and possible\u00a0<strong>retest short opportunities<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0645\u0627\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0679 \u06a9\u06cc \u0627\u0635\u0644 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u06c1\u06cc\u0688 \u0644\u0627\u0626\u0646 \u0633\u06cc \u067e\u06cc \u0622\u0626\u06cc \u0646\u0645\u0628\u0631 \u067e\u0631 \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u060c \u0628\u0644\u06a9\u06c1 \u06a9\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0646\u0641\u0644\u06cc\u0634\u0646 \u067e\u0631 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06a9 \u0622\u0641 \u06a9\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u0688\u0627 \u0627\u067e\u0646\u06cc \u067e\u0633\u0646\u062f\u06cc\u062f\u06c1 \u06a9\u0648\u0631  \u0688\u06cc\u0679\u0627 \u067e\u0631 \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 \u062f\u06be\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u062f\u06cc\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2: \u0633\u06cc \u067e\u06cc \u0622\u0626\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u0688\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0633\u06cc \u067e\u06cc \u0622\u0626\u06cc \u0679\u0631\u0645\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u06cc\u06c1 \u06a9\u0648\u0631 \u0688\u06cc\u0679\u0627 \u0622\u06c1\u0633\u062a\u06c1 \u0622\u06c1\u0633\u062a\u06c1 \u0646\u06cc\u0686\u06d2 \u0622 \u0631\u06c1\u06cc \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0628 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06a9 \u0622\u0641 \u06a9\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u0688\u0627 \u06a9\u06d2 2\u066a \u0679\u0627\u0631\u06af\u0679 \u06a9\u06d2 \u0642\u0631\u06cc\u0628 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0627\u0633\u06cc \u0644\u06cc\u06d2 \u0633\u0627\u0644 \u06a9\u06d2 \u0622\u062e\u0631 \u062a\u06a9 \u0631\u06cc\u0679 \u06c1\u0627\u0626\u06cc\u06a9 \u06a9\u06cc \u062c\u0648 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f\u06c1 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0679 \u067e\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0633\u0646\u06af \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0648\u06c1 \u0627\u0628 \u06a9\u0645 \u0645\u0636\u0628\u0648\u0637 \u0644\u06af \u0631\u06c1\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06a9 \u0622\u0641 \u06a9\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u0688\u0627 \u06a9\u06cc \u067e\u0627\u0644\u06cc\u0633\u06cc \u0631\u06cc\u0679 2.3\u066a \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0627\u06af\u0644\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u0679\u0646\u06af 15 \u062c\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0626\u06cc \u06a9\u0648 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0679 \u06a9\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06a9 \u0631\u06cc\u0679\u0633 \u06a9\u0648 \u0628\u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u062a\u0628\u062f\u06cc\u0644\u06cc \u06a9\u06d2 \u0631\u06a9\u06be\u06d2 \u06af\u0627\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0645\u0627\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0679\u0633 2027 \u062a\u06a9 \u062a\u0642\u0631\u06cc\u0628\u0627\u064b 87 \u0628\u06cc\u0633\u0633 \u067e\u0648\u0627\u0626\u0646\u0679\u0633 \u06a9\u06d2 \u0631\u06cc\u0679 \u06a9\u0679\u0633 \u0628\u06be\u06cc \u067e\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0633 \u06a9\u0631 \u0631\u06c1\u06cc \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u06cc \u0637\u0648\u0631 \u067e\u0631 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06a9 \u0622\u0641 \u06a9\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u0688\u0627 \u06a9\u0648 \u0646\u06cc\u0648\u0679\u0631\u0644 \u0633\u0645\u062c\u06be\u0627 \u062c\u0627 \u0631\u06c1\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u06cc\u0639\u0646\u06cc \u0646\u06c1 \u0679\u0627\u0626\u0679\u0646\u0646\u06af \u06a9\u06cc \u0635\u0627\u0641 \u0637\u0631\u0641 \u062f\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2 \u0646\u06c1 \u0627\u06cc\u0632\u0646\u06af \u06a9\u06cc\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06a9 \u0646\u06d2 \u0627\u06a9\u0646\u0627\u0645\u06a9 \u0648\u06cc\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0633 \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0646\u0633\u0631\u0679\u0646\u0679\u06cc \u06a9\u0648 \u0645\u0627\u0646\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u060c \u0644\u06cc\u06a9\u0646 \u0627\u0633 \u0633\u06d2 \u0627\u0633 \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u06d2 \u067e\u0631 \u0631\u06cc\u0633\u06cc\u0634\u0646 \u06a9\u0627 \u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u06c1 \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u0645\u0644\u062a\u0627\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0633\u0633\u062a \u06af\u0631\u0648\u062a\u06be \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u06a9\u0645 \u0622\u0626\u0644 \u067e\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0633\u0632\u060c \u062f\u0648\u0646\u0648\u06ba \u06a9\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u0688\u0627 \u06a9\u06d2 \u0622\u0624\u0679 \u0644\u06a9 \u06a9\u06d2 \u0644\u06cc\u06d2 \u0645\u0646\u0641\u06cc \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0679\u0627\u0626\u0679\u0631 \u067e\u0627\u0644\u06cc\u0633\u06cc \u06a9\u06d2 \u062d\u0642 \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u062f\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u06a9\u0648 \u06a9\u0645 \u06a9\u0631\u062a\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u06cc\u0648 \u0627\u06cc\u0633 \u0688\u06cc\/\u0633\u06cc \u0627\u06d2 \u0688\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0645\u0636\u0628\u0648\u0637 \u0627\u067e \u0633\u0627\u0626\u06cc\u0688 \u0645\u0648\u0645\u0646\u0679\u0645 \u06c1\u06d2 \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u06cc\u06c1 \u067e\u06c1\u0644\u06d2 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u06d2 \u0688\u0628\u0644 \u0679\u0627\u067e\u060c \u06cc\u0639\u0646\u06cc 1.4120 \u06a9\u06d2 \u0642\u0631\u06cc\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u0633\u0637\u062d\u060c \u06a9\u06d2 \u0627\u0648\u067e\u0631 \u067e\u06c1\u0644\u06d2 \u06c1\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u06cc\u06a9 \u0622\u0624\u0679 \u06a9\u0631 \u0686\u06a9\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u067e\u0633\u0646\u062f\u06cc\u062f\u06c1 \u0628\u0644\u0634 \u0633\u06cc\u0679 \u0627\u067e \u06cc\u06c1 \u06c1\u06d2 \u06a9\u06c1 \u06a9\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u0688\u06cc\u0646 \u0633\u06cc \u067e\u06cc \u0622\u0626\u06cc\/\u06a9\u0648\u0631 \u067e\u0631\u0646\u0679 \u0646\u0631\u0645 \u0622\u0626\u06d2\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0627\u06af\u0631 \u0627\u0646\u0641\u0644\u06cc\u0634\u0646 \u0631\u06cc\u0688\u0646\u06af \u06a9\u0645\u0632\u0648\u0631 \u0622\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2 \u062a\u0648 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0679\u0633 \u06c1\u0627\u06a9\u0634 \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0627\u062a \u06a9\u0648 \u0645\u0632\u06cc\u062f \u067e\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0633 \u0622\u0624\u0679 \u06a9\u0631 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u060c \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0633 \u0633\u06d2 \u06cc\u0648 \u0627\u06cc\u0633 \u0688\u06cc\/\u0633\u06cc \u0627\u06d2 \u0688\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0645\u0632\u06cc\u062f \u0627\u067e \u0633\u0627\u0626\u06cc\u0688 \u06a9\u0648 \u0633\u067e\u0648\u0631\u0679 \u0645\u0644 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u06cc \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0627\u06af\u0631 \u0633\u06cc \u067e\u06cc \u0622\u0626\u06cc \u06c1\u0627\u0679 \u0622\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2 \u062a\u0648 \u06cc\u0648 \u0627\u06cc\u0633 \u0688\u06cc\/\u0633\u06cc \u0627\u06d2 \u0688\u06cc \u06a9\u0627 \u0627\u0648\u067e\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627 \u0645\u0648\u0648 \u0645\u062f\u06be\u0645 \u067e\u0691 \u0633\u06a9\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">\u0627\u0633 \u0635\u0648\u0631\u062a \u0645\u06cc\u06ba \u0627\u0648\u067e\u0631 \u06a9\u06cc \u0637\u0631\u0641 \u0641\u0627\u0644\u0633 \u0628\u0631\u06cc\u06a9 \u062f\u06cc\u06a9\u06be\u06cc\u06ba\u060c \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0645\u06a9\u0646\u06c1 \u0631\u06cc \u0679\u06cc\u0633\u0679 \u0634\u0627\u0631\u0679 \u0645\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639 \u067e\u0631 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0631\u06a9\u06be\u06cc\u06ba\u06d4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS.png\" alt=\"CAD CPI Forecast FS\" class=\"wp-image-138\" title=\"Canada CPI (Monday): Focus and trade implications\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS.png 1024w, https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trade implications \u0645\u0627\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0679 \u06a9\u06cc \u0627\u0635\u0644 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u06c1\u06cc\u0688 \u0644\u0627\u0626\u0646 \u0633\u06cc \u067e\u06cc \u0622\u0626\u06cc \u0646\u0645\u0628\u0631 \u067e\u0631 \u0646\u06c1\u06cc\u06ba\u060c \u0628\u0644\u06a9\u06c1 \u06a9\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0646\u0641\u0644\u06cc\u0634\u0646 \u067e\u0631 \u06c1\u06d2\u06d4 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06a9 \u0622\u0641 \u06a9\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u0688\u0627 \u0627\u067e\u0646\u06cc \u067e\u0633\u0646\u062f\u06cc\u062f\u06c1 \u06a9\u0648\u0631 \u0688\u06cc\u0679\u0627 \u067e\u0631 \u0632\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u06c1 \u062f\u06be\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u062f\u06cc\u062a\u0627 \u06c1\u06d2: \u0633\u06cc \u067e\u06cc \u0622\u0626\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u0688\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0633\u06cc \u067e\u06cc \u0622\u0626\u06cc \u0679\u0631\u0645\u06d4 \u06cc\u06c1 \u06a9\u0648\u0631 \u0688\u06cc\u0679\u0627 \u0622\u06c1\u0633\u062a\u06c1 \u0622\u06c1\u0633\u062a\u06c1 \u0646\u06cc\u0686\u06d2 \u0622 \u0631\u06c1\u06cc \u06c1\u06cc\u06ba \u0627\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0628 \u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06a9 \u0622\u0641 \u06a9\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u0688\u0627 \u06a9\u06d2 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":138,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","community-forum":[15],"class_list":["post-137","community-post","type-community-post","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","community-forum-forum-cad"],"tpgb_featured_images":{"full":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS.png",1024,1024,false],"tp-image-grid":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS.png",700,700,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS-300x300.png",300,300,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS-768x768.png",768,768,true],"large":["https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CAD-CPI-Forecast-FS.png",1024,1024,false],"default":"https:\/\/forexsource.net\/wp-content\/plugins\/the-plus-addons-for-block-editor\/assets\/images\/tpgb-placeholder.jpg"},"tpgb_post_meta_info":{"get_date":"June 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