Research & Analysis
What to Expect from the Upcoming NFP Report
- 2024-10-04
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- The ADP jobs report was strong this week, contributing to a mixed unemployment outlook.
- The JOLTS data appears robust, but the focus remains on the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report.
- Current market expectations suggest a 66% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
- A strong jobs report is expected to increase the likelihood of a 25 bps cut, which would strengthen the USD, while a weak report could heighten the chances of a 50 bps cut, negatively impacting the USD.
- Given geopolitical risks, shorting the USD may not be advisable; however, gold prices could rise with a weaker USD and geopolitical tensions.
- Forecast Indicators:
- Weak Print Expectations:
- NFP: 99K or below
- Unemployment Rate: 4.4% or higher
- Average Earnings (Y): 3.6% or lower
- Unchanged revisions suggest gold buying.
- Strong Print Expectations:
- NFP: 181K or above
- Unemployment Rate: 4% or lower
- Average Earnings (Y): 3.9%
- Unchanged revisions suggest selling EURUSD.
- Weak Print Expectations:
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