Rate Outlook – Errante Academy
Interest Rate Details – Errante Academy
| Bank | Next Meeting | Expected Change (bps) | Probability | Cut Probability % | Hold Probability % | Hike Probability % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | Mar 18, 2026 | -2 | Hold | 8 | 92 | 0 |
| SNB | Mar 19, 2026 | -1 | Hold | 3 | 97 | 0 |
| ECB | Feb 5, 2026 | 0 | Hold | 1 | 99 | 0 |
| BoC | Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | Hold | 0 | 94 | 6 |
| RBNZ | Feb 18, 2026 | 0 | Hold | 0 | 100 | 0 |
| RBA | Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | Hold | 0 | 92 | 8 |
| BoJ | Mar 19, 2026 | 6 | Hold | 0 | 78 | 22 |
| BoE | Feb 5, 2026 | -1 | Hold | 4 | 96 | 0 |
Central Bank Stance – Errante Acadmey
| Central Bank | Dovish | Neutral | Hawkish | Overall Tone | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED | 5 | 10 | 6 | Neutral | Above-trend growth; inflation risks linger; patience/hold stance favored; policy seen as appropriate for now |
| ECB | 0 | 7 | 0 | Neutral | Rates “in a good place”; patient and data-dependent; two-sided inflation/growth risks; outlook uncertain |
| BOJ | 0 | 2 | 2 | Hawkish | Rising inflation concern; vigilance on FX/financial moves; readiness for timely hikes if projections hold |
| BOE | 2 | 0 | 1 | Dovish | Cautious on easing; wage/inflation persistence concerns; keep policy restrictive; gradualism implied |
| RBA | 0 | 0 | 2 | Hawkish | Inflation still too high; hike bias (3.85% seen); higher-for-longer narrative; upside inflation risks flagged |
| SNB | 0 | 3 | 0 | Neutral | Inflation expected within target; uncertain outlook; monitoring conditions; no near-term policy signal |
| BOC | 0 | 4 | 0 | Neutral | High uncertainty (incl. trade policy); inflation near 2%; current rate appropriate if forecast holds; cautious wait-and-see |
| RBNZ | 1 | 2 | 0 | Neutral | Monitoring recovery vs risks; assessing tighter financial conditions; no clear tilt; neutral, data-driven stance |
Overall Sentiment – Errante Academy
| Currency | Overall Sentiment – Short Term | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| USD | Mixed data, but resilient jobs, PCE, durable goods, Fed pause supportive; political tariffs remain headwind. | Bullish |
| EUR | Cooling inflation and soft PMIs offset by better retail, industrial output, and sentiment; tariff headlines keep risks elevated. | Neutral |
| GBP | Inflation beat, GDP and retail outperformed, services PMI strong; softer PMIs and PPI temper, but don’t negate support. | Bullish |
| AUD | Strong PMIs, improving business conditions, solid jobs, and upside Q4 inflation reinforce RBA firmness; commodities stabilize. | Bullish |
| CAD | Inflation supports BoC patience, but core softness and widening trade gap cap upside; labor data mixed, rate gap still matters. | Neutral |
| JPY | Weak activity, softer Tokyo inflation, and slow normalization weigh; hawkish BoJ dissent helps, but not enough to flip trend. | Bearish |
| NZD | Strong PMI and confidence support, yet softer CPI and import-driven trade pressure dilute momentum; near-term bias balanced. | Neutral |
News
| Date | News | Currency | Sentiment | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 26 | US manufacturing PMI for December came in at 51.8, slipping from November’s 52.2 and signaling a slower pace of growth | USD | Negative | PMI |
| Jan 6, 26 | German inflation cooled in December, with year-on-year CPI easing and flat monthly prices in key areas. This supports expectations of contained price pressures and a potentially dovish ECB in 2025. | EUR | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 6, 26 | UK December PMIs show slight growth; Services PMI fell to 51.4, Composite PMI rose slightly, signaling weak UK economic expansion. | GBP | Negative | PMI |
| Jan 6, 26 | Eurozone growth slowed in December as HCOB Services PMI fell to 52.4 and Composite PMI to 51.5. | EUR | Neutral | PMI |
| Jan 5, 26 | US ISM manufacturing PMI remains in contraction; prices ease, but employment and new orders indicate tentative stabilization. | USD | Neutral | PMI |
| Jan 7, 26 | Eurozone inflation stabilizes: headline HICP hits 2% y/y, monthly prices rebounded; core inflation eased below expectations, suggesting cooling underlying pressures and raising prospects of ECB rate cuts. | EUR | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 7, 26 | Australian November CPI eased to 3.4% y/y; core inflation remained 3.2%. Markets briefly priced RBA easing, but persistent pressures kept a near-term rate-hike risk alive, causing choppy AUD moves. | AUD | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 8, 26 | US labor market remains resilient: initial jobless claims fell to 208K (below expectations), 4-week average 211.75K, continuing claims rose to 1.914M, signaling gradual cooling. | USD | Positive | Jobs |
| Jan 8, 26 | Swiss inflation remained subdued in December: headline CPI flat month‑on‑month and 0.1% year‑on‑year; core inflation rose to 0.5%, implying mild underlying pressures and a dovish SNB outlook. | EUR | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 9, 26 | Michigan sentiment rises to 4-month high; current conditions and expectations improve modestly. | USD | Positive | Michigan CE |
| Jan 9, 26 | Payrolls up only 50K with downward revisions; unemployment dips to 4.4%, reinforcing Fed cut expectations if weakness persists. | USD | Negative | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | Canada jobs beat forecasts but unemployment rises to 6.8% as participation climbs; mixed signals may temper BoC easing bets. | CAD | Neutral | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | US jobs mixed: unemployment 4.4%, wages 3.8% y/y, tightening but uneven labor backdrop for USD. | USD | Neutral | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | Eurozone retail sales beat forecasts at 0.2% m/m and 2.3% y/y, mildly supports EUR. | EUR | Positive | Other |
| Jan 21, 26 | UK PPI shows softer input and core output inflation; headline output steady, signaling mildly disinflationary pressures. | GBP | Negative | PPI |
| Jan 21, 26 | UK CPI at 3.4% beat forecasts; input producer prices slip slightly, signaling persistent inflation pressures. | GBP | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 21, 26 | UK headline CPI rises to 3.4% y/y above forecast; core CPI steady at 3.2%, output PPI flat at 0%. | GBP | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | Canada CPI rises to 2.4% y/y above expectations but core eases; supports BoC policy pause expectations. | CAD | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | Dollar weakens as Trump’s Greenland tariff threat spurs risk aversion; safe-haven JPY and CHF gain. | USD | Negative | Trump |
| Jan 19, 26 | Eurozone CPI at 1.9% y/y below 2% target; core steady at 2.3%, reinforcing weakening price-pressure trend. | EUR | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | Trump’s Greenland tariff threats jolt markets, heighten trade uncertainty; EU moves toward emergency summit. | EUR | Negative | Trump |
| Jan 19, 26 | Japan machinery orders plunge, services contract, industrial output falls; soft domestic demand weighs on JPY. | JPY | Negative | Other |
| Jan 16, 26 | NZ manufacturing PMI jumps to 3-year high around 56; food prices dip m/m but rise 4% y/y; NZD firms. | NZD | Positive | PMI |
| Jan 16, 26 | Germany December HICP at 2.0% y/y, CPI flat m/m, in line with forecasts; limits immediate EUR volatility. | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 16, 26 | WTI slides below USD 60 as geopolitical risk premiums fade; oversold signals hint at potential bullish reversal. | USD | Negative | Other |
| Jan 15, 26 | US export and import prices rise more than expected in Oct/Nov, signaling building inflation pressures. | USD | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | US jobless claims drop to 198K below forecasts; continuing claims decline, signaling resilient labor market. | USD | Positive | Jobs |
| Jan 15, 26 | Ireland CPI eases y/y to 2.8% but monthly measures turn positive, indicating short-term uptick in prices. | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | Eurozone industrial production beats forecasts at 0.7% m/m and 2.5% y/y; stronger manufacturing activity. | EUR | Positive | Other |
| Jan 15, 26 | Spain December CPI steady at 2.9% y/y and HICP at 3.0% y/y, in line; no fresh inflationary pressure. | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | UK GDP, industrial and manufacturing output all beat expectations in November; supportive backdrop for GBP. | GBP | Positive | GDP |
| Jan 14, 26 | US November retail sales beat monthly forecasts; y/y growth slows slightly, suggesting moderating demand. | USD | Positive | Other |
| Jan 14, 26 | US core PPI surprises at 3.5% y/y vs 2.7% expected; monthly core flat, headline PPI at 0.2% in line. | USD | Positive | PPI |
| Jan 14, 26 | US PPI rises to 3.0% y/y above expectations; signals building price pressures, potentially supportive for USD. | USD | Positive | PPI |
| Jan 14, 26 | US October PPI mixed; core prices accelerate y/y and m/m while headline m/m slows, slightly inflationary. | USD | Neutral | PPI |
| Jan 13, 26 | WTI rallies above USD 60 on escalating Iran tensions and broader supply fears including Venezuela and Russia. | USD | Positive | Other |
| Jan 13, 26 | US new home sales hold near 0.737M in October, slightly beating forecasts but showing stagnation overall. | USD | Neutral | Other |
| Jan 13, 26 | US December CPI steady near expectations; core eases slightly, signaling still-elevated but cooling inflation. | USD | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 13, 26 | US December CPI broadly in line at 2.7% y/y; core ex-food-and-energy softer at 0.2% m/m, Fed-dovish lean. | USD | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 13, 26 | NZ business confidence surges to decade high; strong Q4 data reinforces emerging economic recovery and NZD. | NZD | Positive | Other |
| Jan 12, 26 | Dollar slumps as Powell criminal probe heightens concerns over Fed independence; EUR and GBP gain. | USD | Negative | Fed |
| Jan 9, 26 | Michigan sentiment rises to 4-month high; current conditions and expectations improve, signaling cautious optimism. | USD | Positive | Other |
| Jan 9, 26 | Payrolls up only 50K with downward revisions; unemployment dips to 4.4%, reinforcing Fed cut expectations. | USD | Negative | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | Canada jobs beat forecasts but unemployment rises to 6.8% as participation climbs; tempers BoC easing bets. | CAD | Neutral | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | US jobs mixed: unemployment 4.4%, wages 3.8% y/y, U6 underemployment jumps to 13%; mixed USD backdrop. | USD | Neutral | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | US housing starts fall to lowest since May 2025 while permits edge higher; construction softening. | USD | Negative | Other |
| Jan 24, 26 | US business activity remained in expansion during January, though momentum softened. Manufacturing and services stayed slightly above 50, while new orders signaled fragile underlying demand. | USD | Neutral | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | Composite PMI at 51.9; expansion continues but weak new business growth | USD | Neutral | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | S&P Global Services PMI at 54.3 vs 51.7 forecast | GBP | Positive | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | HCOB Services PMI at 51.9 vs 52.8 forecast | EUR | Negative | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | HCOB Composite PMI at 52.5 vs 51.8 forecast | EUR | Positive | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | HCOB Services PMI at 47.9 vs 50.5 forecast; deeper contraction | EUR | Negative | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | BoJ holds rates at 0.75%; hawkish dissent noted | JPY | Positive | Interest Rates |
| Jan 23, 26 | Composite PMI at 52.8; fastest expansion in 17 months | JPY | Positive | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | Retail Sales YoY at 2.5% vs 1.0% forecast | GBP | Positive | Retail |
| Jan 22, 26 | Composite PMI at 55.5 vs 51.0 previous; sharp acceleration | AUD | Positive | PMI |
| Jan 22, 26 | National CPI YoY at 2.1% vs 2.9% previous; inflation cooling | JPY | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | CPI QoQ at 0.6%; inflation easing | NZD | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | CPI YoY at 3.1%; softening inflation | NZD | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | Core PCE MoM at 0.2% vs 0.3% previous | USD | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | Core PCE YoY at 2.7% vs 2.8% previous | USD | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | Initial Jobless Claims at 200K vs 212K forecast | USD | Positive | Employment |
| Jan 22, 26 | Core PCE QoQ at 2.9%; in line | USD | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | Full-Time Employment +54.8K vs -56.5K previous | AUD | Positive | Employment |
| Jan 21, 26 | Exports YoY at 5.1% vs 6.1% forecast; slowing | JPY | Negative | Trade |
| Jan 21, 26 | CPI YoY at 3.4% vs 3.3% forecast | GBP | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 21, 26 | Core CPI YoY at 3.2%; in line | GBP | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 21, 26 | Retail Price Index YoY at 4.2% vs 4.0% forecast | GBP | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | BoC Core CPI MoM at -0.4% vs -0.1% previous | CAD | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | CPI YoY Final at 1.9% vs 2.1% previous; nearing ECB target | EUR | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | Trump’s Greenland tariff threat; trade uncertainty | USD | Negative | Geopolitical |
| Jan 16, 26 | HICP YoY at 2.0%; in line | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 16, 26 | WTI Crude Oil at ~59.15 USD; bearish short-term | OIL | Neutral | Commodities |
| Jan 15, 26 | Initial Jobless Claims at 198K; labor market strong | USD | Positive | Employment |
| Jan 15, 26 | Import Price Index MoM at 0.4% vs 0.0% previous | USD | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | CPI MoM at 0.5% vs -0.2% previous | EUR | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | Industrial Production MoM at 0.7% vs 0.5% forecast | EUR | Positive | Industrial |
| Jan 15, 26 | CPI MoM at 0.3%; steady | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | Manufacturing Output YoY at 2.1% vs -0.3% forecast | GBP | Positive | Industrial |
| Jan 26, 26 | Germany’s IFO Expectations slipped slightly in January, easing to 89.5 from 89.7, signalling a modest deterioration in business outlook amid ongoing economic uncertainty. | EUR | Negative | PMI |
| Jan 26, 26 | The yen is climbing as markets anticipate the upcoming BoJ meeting and growing expectations that Japan, possibly alongside the Fed, may intervene to stabilize the currency. | JPY | Negative | BoJ |
| Jan 26, 26 | US durable goods orders climbed 5.3% in November showing firmer demand for long lasting manufactured items and pointing to steady underlying economic momentum. | USD | Positive | Other |
| Jan 27, 26 | Australia December business survey showed broader strength, with confidence edging higher and conditions improving, reinforcing resilient momentum and backing the central bank current policy approach. | AUD | Positive | RBA |
| Jan 28, 26 | Australias fourth quarter consumer prices climbed one percent from prior quarter surpassing expectations of zero point seven percent signaling stronger inflation momentum into year end | AUD | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 28, 26 | The dollar recovered some ground after steep losses as comments hinted the government might accept a weaker currency which deepened anxiety and sped up selling. | USD | Negative | Trump |
| Jan 28, 26 | The central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25 percent aligning with widespread market expectations and signaling a cautious wait and see policy stance | CAD | Neutral | BoC |
| Jan 28, 26 | New Zealand imports rose to $7.6B in December from $7.15B, hinting at stronger foreign demand and raising risks of trade balance pressure that could soften the kiwi. | NZD | Negative | Other |
| Jan 29, 26 | The Federal Reserve left rates steady, signaling a lengthy pause as firm data cooled cut expectations, while officials stay ready to ease and the dollar adjusted after January decision. | USD | Positive | Fed |
| Jan 29, 26 | Eurozone confidence improved in January as the economic sentiment gauge climbed to 99.4, surpassing the 97 forecast and signaling firmer activity expectations across the region. | EUR | Positive | Other |
| Jan 29, 26 | The rupee hit a new low versus the US dollar as hedging demand rose while central bank action appeared to prevent a break beyond 92 | USD | Negative | Other |
| Jan 29, 26 | US continuing jobless claims fell below forecasts at 1.827M versus 1.86M for the week ending January 16, pointing to modestly improved labor market momentum. | USD | Positive | Jobs |
| Jan 29, 26 | Canada trade gap widens in November as exports drop 2 point 8 percent driven by sharp fall in unwrought precious metals and weaker motor vehicles shipments | CAD | Negative | Other |
| Jan 30, 26 | Tokyo core inflation in January cooled more than expected, easing to 2.0% year on year versus a 2.2% forecast, highlighting a softer pricing backdrop in Japan. | JPY | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 30, 26 | Canada’s economy edged lower in October as most industries contracted. Goods output reversed earlier strength, while services dipped slightly, pointing to widespread yet uneven weakness. | CAD | Negative | GDP |
| Jan 30, 26 | Euro area economic output expanded by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter surpassing expectations of 0.2 percent signaling steadier growth momentum late in the year. | EUR | Positive | GDP |
| Jan 30, 26 | US producer prices in December jumped 0.5 percent month over month, far above the 0.2 percent forecast, signaling stronger pipeline inflation pressures. | USD | Positive | PPI |
| Jan 30, 26 | A planned leadership change at the central bank lifted the dollar and pressured metals, as a former governor known for hawkish views is slated to take charge in 2026. | USD | Positive | Fed |
| Jan 30, 26 | Germany consumer inflation declined less than predicted in January, as harmonized prices edged down 0.1 percent monthly, outperforming expectations for a deeper decline. | EUR | Positive | Inflation |
| Feb 2, 26 | Oil prices climbed as Iran related tensions and short covering fueled optimism, briefly tightening spreads. Still, easing risks may reveal downside as stockpiles grow and US inventory data weakens sentiment. | USD | Positive | Other |
| Feb 2, 26 | US manufacturing prices paid in January slipped to 59 according to ISM data coming in below the 60.5 forecast signaling easing input cost pressures | USD | Negative | Inflation |
| Feb 3, 26 | The central bank lifted rates by a widely anticipated 25bp to 3.85 percent and projections hint at a firmer stance suggesting more increases remain possible despite cautious guidance | AUD | Positive | RBA |
| Feb 3, 26 | The pound shows mixed movement as traders stay cautious ahead of a major Bank of England policy decision that could shape near term market direction. | GBP | Neutral | BoE |
| Feb 3, 26 | The Australian dollar strengthened as borrowing costs were raised, with the currency gaining support from a tighter policy outlook following the central bank decision. | AUD | Positive | Interest Rates |
