Interest Rate Details – Errante Academy
| Bank | Next Meeting | Expected Change (bps) | Probability | Cut Probability % | Hold Probability % | Hike Probability % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | -4 | Hold | 14 | 86 | 0 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 4 | Hold | 0 | 85 | 15 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | -1 | Hold | 3 | 97 | 0 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | -1 | Hold | 4 | 96 | 0 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | -20 | Cut | 80 | 20 | 0 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | -3 | Hold | 13 | 87 | 0 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 4 | Hold | 0 | 83 | 17 | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | 0 | Hold | 0 | 99 | 1 |
News
| Date | News | Currency | Sentiment | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 26 | US manufacturing PMI for December came in at 51.8, slipping from November’s 52.2 and signaling a slower pace of growth | USD | Negative | PMI |
| Jan 6, 26 | German inflation cooled in December, with year-on-year CPI easing and flat monthly prices in key areas. This supports expectations of contained price pressures and a potentially dovish ECB in 2025. | EUR | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 6, 26 | UK December PMIs show slight growth; Services PMI fell to 51.4, Composite PMI rose slightly, signaling weak UK economic expansion. | GBP | Negative | PMI |
| Jan 6, 26 | Eurozone growth slowed in December as HCOB Services PMI fell to 52.4 and Composite PMI to 51.5. | EUR | Neutral | PMI |
| Jan 5, 26 | US ISM manufacturing PMI remains in contraction; prices ease, but employment and new orders indicate tentative stabilization. | USD | Neutral | PMI |
| Jan 7, 26 | Eurozone inflation stabilizes: headline HICP hits 2% y/y, monthly prices rebounded; core inflation eased below expectations, suggesting cooling underlying pressures and raising prospects of ECB rate cuts. | EUR | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 7, 26 | Australian November CPI eased to 3.4% y/y; core inflation remained 3.2%. Markets briefly priced RBA easing, but persistent pressures kept a near-term rate-hike risk alive, causing choppy AUD moves. | AUD | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 8, 26 | US labor market remains resilient: initial jobless claims fell to 208K (below expectations), 4-week average 211.75K, continuing claims rose to 1.914M, signaling gradual cooling. | USD | Positive | Jobs |
| Jan 8, 26 | Swiss inflation remained subdued in December: headline CPI flat month‑on‑month and 0.1% year‑on‑year; core inflation rose to 0.5%, implying mild underlying pressures and a dovish SNB outlook. | EUR | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 9, 26 | Michigan sentiment rises to 4-month high; current conditions and expectations improve modestly. | USD | Positive | Michigan CE |
| Jan 9, 26 | Payrolls up only 50K with downward revisions; unemployment dips to 4.4%, reinforcing Fed cut expectations if weakness persists. | USD | Negative | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | Canada jobs beat forecasts but unemployment rises to 6.8% as participation climbs; mixed signals may temper BoC easing bets. | CAD | Neutral | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | US jobs mixed: unemployment 4.4%, wages 3.8% y/y, tightening but uneven labor backdrop for USD. | USD | Neutral | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | Eurozone retail sales beat forecasts at 0.2% m/m and 2.3% y/y, mildly supports EUR. | EUR | Positive | Other |
| Jan 21, 26 | UK PPI shows softer input and core output inflation; headline output steady, signaling mildly disinflationary pressures. | GBP | Negative | PPI |
| Jan 21, 26 | UK CPI at 3.4% beat forecasts; input producer prices slip slightly, signaling persistent inflation pressures. | GBP | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 21, 26 | UK headline CPI rises to 3.4% y/y above forecast; core CPI steady at 3.2%, output PPI flat at 0%. | GBP | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | Canada CPI rises to 2.4% y/y above expectations but core eases; supports BoC policy pause expectations. | CAD | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | Dollar weakens as Trump’s Greenland tariff threat spurs risk aversion; safe-haven JPY and CHF gain. | USD | Negative | Trump |
| Jan 19, 26 | Eurozone CPI at 1.9% y/y below 2% target; core steady at 2.3%, reinforcing weakening price-pressure trend. | EUR | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | Trump’s Greenland tariff threats jolt markets, heighten trade uncertainty; EU moves toward emergency summit. | EUR | Negative | Trump |
| Jan 19, 26 | Japan machinery orders plunge, services contract, industrial output falls; soft domestic demand weighs on JPY. | JPY | Negative | Other |
| Jan 16, 26 | NZ manufacturing PMI jumps to 3-year high around 56; food prices dip m/m but rise 4% y/y; NZD firms. | NZD | Positive | PMI |
| Jan 16, 26 | Germany December HICP at 2.0% y/y, CPI flat m/m, in line with forecasts; limits immediate EUR volatility. | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 16, 26 | WTI slides below USD 60 as geopolitical risk premiums fade; oversold signals hint at potential bullish reversal. | USD | Negative | Other |
| Jan 15, 26 | US export and import prices rise more than expected in Oct/Nov, signaling building inflation pressures. | USD | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | US jobless claims drop to 198K below forecasts; continuing claims decline, signaling resilient labor market. | USD | Positive | Jobs |
| Jan 15, 26 | Ireland CPI eases y/y to 2.8% but monthly measures turn positive, indicating short-term uptick in prices. | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | Eurozone industrial production beats forecasts at 0.7% m/m and 2.5% y/y; stronger manufacturing activity. | EUR | Positive | Other |
| Jan 15, 26 | Spain December CPI steady at 2.9% y/y and HICP at 3.0% y/y, in line; no fresh inflationary pressure. | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | UK GDP, industrial and manufacturing output all beat expectations in November; supportive backdrop for GBP. | GBP | Positive | GDP |
| Jan 14, 26 | US November retail sales beat monthly forecasts; y/y growth slows slightly, suggesting moderating demand. | USD | Positive | Other |
| Jan 14, 26 | US core PPI surprises at 3.5% y/y vs 2.7% expected; monthly core flat, headline PPI at 0.2% in line. | USD | Positive | PPI |
| Jan 14, 26 | US PPI rises to 3.0% y/y above expectations; signals building price pressures, potentially supportive for USD. | USD | Positive | PPI |
| Jan 14, 26 | US October PPI mixed; core prices accelerate y/y and m/m while headline m/m slows, slightly inflationary. | USD | Neutral | PPI |
| Jan 13, 26 | WTI rallies above USD 60 on escalating Iran tensions and broader supply fears including Venezuela and Russia. | USD | Positive | Other |
| Jan 13, 26 | US new home sales hold near 0.737M in October, slightly beating forecasts but showing stagnation overall. | USD | Neutral | Other |
| Jan 13, 26 | US December CPI steady near expectations; core eases slightly, signaling still-elevated but cooling inflation. | USD | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 13, 26 | US December CPI broadly in line at 2.7% y/y; core ex-food-and-energy softer at 0.2% m/m, Fed-dovish lean. | USD | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 13, 26 | NZ business confidence surges to decade high; strong Q4 data reinforces emerging economic recovery and NZD. | NZD | Positive | Other |
| Jan 12, 26 | Dollar slumps as Powell criminal probe heightens concerns over Fed independence; EUR and GBP gain. | USD | Negative | Fed |
| Jan 9, 26 | Michigan sentiment rises to 4-month high; current conditions and expectations improve, signaling cautious optimism. | USD | Positive | Other |
| Jan 9, 26 | Payrolls up only 50K with downward revisions; unemployment dips to 4.4%, reinforcing Fed cut expectations. | USD | Negative | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | Canada jobs beat forecasts but unemployment rises to 6.8% as participation climbs; tempers BoC easing bets. | CAD | Neutral | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | US jobs mixed: unemployment 4.4%, wages 3.8% y/y, U6 underemployment jumps to 13%; mixed USD backdrop. | USD | Neutral | Jobs |
| Jan 9, 26 | US housing starts fall to lowest since May 2025 while permits edge higher; construction softening. | USD | Negative | Other |
| Jan 24, 26 | US business activity remained in expansion during January, though momentum softened. Manufacturing and services stayed slightly above 50, while new orders signaled fragile underlying demand. | USD | Neutral | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | Composite PMI at 51.9; expansion continues but weak new business growth | USD | Neutral | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | S&P Global Services PMI at 54.3 vs 51.7 forecast | GBP | Positive | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | HCOB Services PMI at 51.9 vs 52.8 forecast | EUR | Negative | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | HCOB Composite PMI at 52.5 vs 51.8 forecast | EUR | Positive | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | HCOB Services PMI at 47.9 vs 50.5 forecast; deeper contraction | EUR | Negative | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | BoJ holds rates at 0.75%; hawkish dissent noted | JPY | Positive | Interest Rates |
| Jan 23, 26 | Composite PMI at 52.8; fastest expansion in 17 months | JPY | Positive | PMI |
| Jan 23, 26 | Retail Sales YoY at 2.5% vs 1.0% forecast | GBP | Positive | Retail |
| Jan 22, 26 | Composite PMI at 55.5 vs 51.0 previous; sharp acceleration | AUD | Positive | PMI |
| Jan 22, 26 | National CPI YoY at 2.1% vs 2.9% previous; inflation cooling | JPY | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | CPI QoQ at 0.6%; inflation easing | NZD | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | CPI YoY at 3.1%; softening inflation | NZD | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | Core PCE MoM at 0.2% vs 0.3% previous | USD | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | Core PCE YoY at 2.7% vs 2.8% previous | USD | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | Initial Jobless Claims at 200K vs 212K forecast | USD | Positive | Employment |
| Jan 22, 26 | Core PCE QoQ at 2.9%; in line | USD | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 22, 26 | Full-Time Employment +54.8K vs -56.5K previous | AUD | Positive | Employment |
| Jan 21, 26 | Exports YoY at 5.1% vs 6.1% forecast; slowing | JPY | Negative | Trade |
| Jan 21, 26 | CPI YoY at 3.4% vs 3.3% forecast | GBP | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 21, 26 | Core CPI YoY at 3.2%; in line | GBP | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 21, 26 | Retail Price Index YoY at 4.2% vs 4.0% forecast | GBP | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | BoC Core CPI MoM at -0.4% vs -0.1% previous | CAD | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | CPI YoY Final at 1.9% vs 2.1% previous; nearing ECB target | EUR | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 19, 26 | Trump’s Greenland tariff threat; trade uncertainty | USD | Negative | Geopolitical |
| Jan 16, 26 | HICP YoY at 2.0%; in line | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 16, 26 | WTI Crude Oil at ~59.15 USD; bearish short-term | OIL | Neutral | Commodities |
| Jan 15, 26 | Initial Jobless Claims at 198K; labor market strong | USD | Positive | Employment |
| Jan 15, 26 | Import Price Index MoM at 0.4% vs 0.0% previous | USD | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | CPI MoM at 0.5% vs -0.2% previous | EUR | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | Industrial Production MoM at 0.7% vs 0.5% forecast | EUR | Positive | Industrial |
| Jan 15, 26 | CPI MoM at 0.3%; steady | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Jan 15, 26 | Manufacturing Output YoY at 2.1% vs -0.3% forecast | GBP | Positive | Industrial |
| Jan 26, 26 | Germany’s IFO Expectations slipped slightly in January, easing to 89.5 from 89.7, signalling a modest deterioration in business outlook amid ongoing economic uncertainty. | EUR | Negative | PMI |
| Jan 26, 26 | The yen is climbing as markets anticipate the upcoming BoJ meeting and growing expectations that Japan, possibly alongside the Fed, may intervene to stabilize the currency. | JPY | Negative | BoJ |
| Jan 26, 26 | US durable goods orders climbed 5.3% in November showing firmer demand for long lasting manufactured items and pointing to steady underlying economic momentum. | USD | Positive | Other |
| Jan 27, 26 | Australia December business survey showed broader strength, with confidence edging higher and conditions improving, reinforcing resilient momentum and backing the central bank current policy approach. | AUD | Positive | RBA |
| Jan 28, 26 | Australias fourth quarter consumer prices climbed one percent from prior quarter surpassing expectations of zero point seven percent signaling stronger inflation momentum into year end | AUD | Positive | Inflation |
| Jan 28, 26 | The dollar recovered some ground after steep losses as comments hinted the government might accept a weaker currency which deepened anxiety and sped up selling. | USD | Negative | Trump |
| Jan 28, 26 | The central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25 percent aligning with widespread market expectations and signaling a cautious wait and see policy stance | CAD | Neutral | BoC |
| Jan 28, 26 | New Zealand imports rose to $7.6B in December from $7.15B, hinting at stronger foreign demand and raising risks of trade balance pressure that could soften the kiwi. | NZD | Negative | Other |
| Jan 29, 26 | The Federal Reserve left rates steady, signaling a lengthy pause as firm data cooled cut expectations, while officials stay ready to ease and the dollar adjusted after January decision. | USD | Positive | Fed |
| Jan 29, 26 | Eurozone confidence improved in January as the economic sentiment gauge climbed to 99.4, surpassing the 97 forecast and signaling firmer activity expectations across the region. | EUR | Positive | Other |
| Jan 29, 26 | The rupee hit a new low versus the US dollar as hedging demand rose while central bank action appeared to prevent a break beyond 92 | USD | Negative | Other |
| Jan 29, 26 | US continuing jobless claims fell below forecasts at 1.827M versus 1.86M for the week ending January 16, pointing to modestly improved labor market momentum. | USD | Positive | Jobs |
| Jan 29, 26 | Canada trade gap widens in November as exports drop 2 point 8 percent driven by sharp fall in unwrought precious metals and weaker motor vehicles shipments | CAD | Negative | Other |
| Jan 30, 26 | Tokyo core inflation in January cooled more than expected, easing to 2.0% year on year versus a 2.2% forecast, highlighting a softer pricing backdrop in Japan. | JPY | Negative | Inflation |
| Jan 30, 26 | Canada’s economy edged lower in October as most industries contracted. Goods output reversed earlier strength, while services dipped slightly, pointing to widespread yet uneven weakness. | CAD | Negative | GDP |
| Jan 30, 26 | Euro area economic output expanded by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter surpassing expectations of 0.2 percent signaling steadier growth momentum late in the year. | EUR | Positive | GDP |
| Jan 30, 26 | US producer prices in December jumped 0.5 percent month over month, far above the 0.2 percent forecast, signaling stronger pipeline inflation pressures. | USD | Positive | PPI |
| Jan 30, 26 | A planned leadership change at the central bank lifted the dollar and pressured metals, as a former governor known for hawkish views is slated to take charge in 2026. | USD | Positive | Fed |
| Jan 30, 26 | Germany consumer inflation declined less than predicted in January, as harmonized prices edged down 0.1 percent monthly, outperforming expectations for a deeper decline. | EUR | Positive | Inflation |
| Feb 2, 26 | US manufacturing prices paid in January slipped to 59 according to ISM data coming in below the 60.5 forecast signaling easing input cost pressures | USD | Negative | Inflation |
| Feb 3, 26 | The central bank lifted rates by a widely anticipated 25bp to 3.85 percent and projections hint at a firmer stance suggesting more increases remain possible despite cautious guidance | AUD | Positive | RBA |
| Feb 3, 26 | The pound shows mixed movement as traders stay cautious ahead of a major Bank of England policy decision that could shape near term market direction. | GBP | Neutral | BoE |
| Feb 3, 26 | The Australian dollar strengthened as borrowing costs were raised, with the currency gaining support from a tighter policy outlook following the central bank decision. | AUD | Positive | Interest Rates |
| Feb 3, 26 | New Zealand labor participation increased in the fourth quarter to 70.5 percent, modestly surpassing the 70.3 percent forecast, signaling a slightly firmer workforce engagement. | NZD | Positive | Jobs |
| Feb 4, 26 | New Zealand commodity prices recovered in January, rising monthly, while a stronger currency limited gains. Hiring improved, yet unemployment increased to its highest level in a decade. | NZD | Positive | Jobs |
| Feb 4, 26 | Eurozone business activity showed mild expansion in January as the composite PMI reached 51.3 falling short of the 51.5 expectation and signaling steady but limited momentum | EUR | Negative | PMI |
| Feb 4, 26 | Britain January services PMI from S and P Global came in at fifty four narrowly below market expectations signalling modest expansion but softer momentum than anticipated | GBP | Negative | PMI |
| Feb 5, 26 | Australian imports declined 0.8 percent month on month in December, shifting from a prior 0.2 percent rise, signaling softer domestic demand at year end. | AUD | Negative | GDP |
| Feb 5, 26 | Germany reported a strong rebound in December factory orders, rising 7.8 percent from the prior month and far outperforming expectations for a modest contraction. | EUR | Positive | GDP |
| Feb 5, 26 | Eurozone retail spending growth cooled in December, advancing 1.3 percent annually, undershooting expectations of 1.6 percent and signaling softer consumer momentum entering year end. | EUR | Negative | GDP |
| Feb 5, 26 | The central bank kept policy unchanged after a narrow vote, pushing sterling lower while indicating cuts may follow if the expected inflation slowdown proves durable. | GBP | Negative | BoE |
| Feb 5, 26 | Policymakers kept borrowing costs unchanged, playing down recent easing in price pressures while stressing continued vigilance amid geopolitical uncertainty risks and growth outlook. | EUR | Positive | ECB |
| Feb 5, 26 | US initial jobless claims climbed to 231k above expectations, while the four week average rose to 212k, suggesting gradually softening labor market conditions. | USD | Negative | Jobs |
| Feb 6, 26 | Germany’s December exports climbed 4% monthly, significantly outperforming expectations of a 1% increase, signaling stronger external demand toward year end and overall economic momentum. | EUR | Positive | GDP |
| Feb 6, 26 | Sterling firmed on Friday, recouping part of prior losses as markets reassessed a narrow Bank of England rate decision and signs of potential easing if inflation continues cooling. | GBP | Positive | BoE |
| Feb 6, 26 | Post election conditions point to stronger political stability in Japan, a factor likely to underpin yen sentiment and reduce near term uncertainty in local markets. | JPY | Positive | Other |
| Feb 6, 26 | Canada reported a January unemployment rate of 6.5 percent, coming in below expectations of 6.8 percent and signaling a firmer labor market than anticipated. | CAD | Positive | Jobs |
| Feb 9, 26 | The yen weakened versus the dollar after the ruling party won a strong majority, boosting expectations of larger stimulus and keeping investors focused on forthcoming fiscal policy plans. | JPY | Positive | BoJ |
| Feb 9, 26 | Eurozone investor confidence strengthened in February, moving into positive territory as the Sentix index climbed to 4.2, reflecting improving outlooks and reduced economic pessimism. | EUR | Positive | Other |
| Feb 10, 26 | US export prices increased more slowly in December as annual inflation cooled to 3.1 percent compared with 3.3 percent earlier signaling easing external price pressures | USD | Negative | Inflation |
| Feb 11, 26 | China producer prices showed slower annual deflation in January at negative 1.4 percent, slightly outperforming expectations of negative 1.5 percent, signaling modest stabilization in factory pricing conditions. | AUD | Positive | PPI |
| Feb 11, 26 | The US dollar edged lower after subdued economic figures strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may proceed with additional interest rate reductions in the near term. | USD | Negative | Fed |
| Feb 11, 26 | January’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000, comfortably above the 66,000 forecast and well beyond this year’s 15,000 monthly average, while unemployment declined to 4.3%. | USD | Positive | Jobs |
| Feb 12, 26 | Japan’s January producer prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier, slightly below the prior 2.4%, matching expectations and suggesting moderating pipeline inflation despite rising import expenses. | JPY | Neutral | PPI |
| Feb 12, 26 | Crude prices hover near key resistance around $70 for Brent and $69 for WTI, as rising U.S.–Iran tensions offset a sharp inventory build, while firm U.S. employment data supports demand expectations. | USD | Positive | Jobs |
| Feb 12, 26 | Britain’s industrial output for December grew 0.5% year over year, falling short of the anticipated 1.5% increase and signaling weaker manufacturing momentum. | GBP | Negative | GDP |
| Feb 12, 26 | The four week average of US initial unemployment claims increased to 219.5K from 212.25K by February 6, hinting at a slight easing in labor market strength. | USD | Negative | Jobs |
| Feb 13, 26 | Switzerland’s consumer prices declined 0.1% in January from the previous month, missing expectations for an unchanged reading and signaling softer inflationary pressure than anticipated. | CHF | Negative | Inflation |
| Feb 13, 26 | Eurozone fourth-quarter employment increased 0.2% quarter on quarter, surpassing expectations of 0.1%, indicating slightly stronger labor market momentum than anticipated. | EUR | Positive | Jobs |
| Feb 13, 26 | Inflation expectations in New Zealand have edged slightly higher, according to recent observations from a major financial institution, signaling modest upward pressure on future price outlooks. | NZD | Positive | Inflation |
| Feb 13, 26 | January’s US consumer prices increased 0.2% month over month, falling short of the anticipated 0.3% rise, indicating slightly softer inflation momentum at the start of the year. | USD | Positive | Inflation |
| Feb 13, 26 | US consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in January, coming in slightly below expectations, while annual inflation slowed to 2.4 percent from 2.7 percent, indicating easing pressures despite ongoing upside risks. | USD | Positive | Inflation |
| Feb 16, 26 | Japan’s economy edged up only 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, significantly below expectations for a 0.4% quarterly increase, signaling weaker-than-anticipated momentum. | JPY | Negative | GDP |
| Feb 17, 26 | Britain’s three month ILO jobless rate climbed to 5.2 percent in December, edging above the projected 5.1 percent, indicating a modest weakening in labor market conditions. | GBP | Negative | Jobs |
| Feb 17, 26 | Germany’s February ZEW Economic Sentiment index declined to 58.3, undershooting expectations of 65.0, signaling weaker investor confidence in the economic outlook than markets had anticipated. | EUR | Negative | Other |
| Feb 17, 26 | Easing UK inflation alongside a slowing labour market is shaping expectations around the Bank of England’s next policy decisions, as softer data influences projections for upcoming monetary adjustments. | GBP | Negative | Inflation |
| Feb 17, 26 | Canada’s consumer prices showed no monthly change in January, coming in below expectations for a modest 0.1% increase and signaling softer short term inflation momentum. | CAD | Negative | Inflation |
| Feb 18, 26 | Japan’s imports declined 2.5% year over year in January, defying expectations for a 3% expansion and signaling softer domestic demand than analysts had anticipated. | JPY | Negative | Other |
| Feb 18, 26 | Britain’s annual core producer output inflation slowed to 2.9 percent in January, compared with the previous 3.2 percent, indicating a modest easing in upstream price pressures. | GBP | Negative | PPI |
| Feb 18, 26 | U.S. core durable goods orders excluding defense fell sharply in December, sliding to a 2.85 percent decline after posting a robust 6.6 percent increase previously. | USD | Negative | Other |
| Feb 18, 26 | WTI crude has rebounded from a significant technical area around 62.00, a pivot level serving as support and resistance since August, aligning with the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the December rally. | CAD | Positive | Other |
| Feb 18, 26 | The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its official cash rate at 2.25% in the new governor’s first policy meeting, prompting a decline in the Kiwi as investors anticipated a more hawkish stance. | NZD | Negative | RBNZ |
| Feb 19, 26 | Australia’s employment rose by 17.8K in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, falling short of the anticipated 20K increase, signaling a modestly softer labor market outcome than expected. | AUD | Negative | Jobs |
| Feb 19, 26 | Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate policymakers favor a careful and measured approach to future rate reductions, suggesting any easing cycle for the dollar will proceed gradually rather than aggressively. | USD | Neutral | Fed |
| Feb 19, 26 | Ireland’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices dropped 1% in January compared with the previous month, aligning precisely with market forecasts and signaling price pressures eased as anticipated at the start of the year. | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Feb 19, 26 | US weekly unemployment claims fell to 206K for the week ending February 14, well below the 229K estimate. The four week average slipped to 219K, highlighting continued strength in labor conditions. | USD | Positive | Jobs |
| Feb 19, 26 | New Zealand’s imports declined in January to 6.73 billion dollars from 7.6 billion previously, indicating weaker appetite for overseas products and suggesting moderation in domestic economic momentum. | NZD | Negative | Other |
| Feb 19, 26 | Japan’s national inflation rate rose 1.5% in January from a year earlier, while core consumer prices increased broadly as anticipated by market forecasts. | JPY | Positive | Inflation |
| Feb 20, 26 | Japan’s private sector gained momentum in February as manufacturing and services improved. The composite PMI climbed to 53.8, its strongest reading since May 2023, driven by a solid rebound in export demand. | JPY | Positive | PMI |
| Feb 20, 26 | UK retail sales excluding fuel climbed 5.5% year over year in January, significantly surpassing expectations of a 3.6% increase and signaling stronger-than-anticipated consumer spending momentum. | GBP | Positive | Other |
| Feb 20, 26 | France’s February HCOB Services PMI climbed to 49.6, surpassing the 49.0 projection, though the reading continues to indicate a slight downturn in service sector activity. | EUR | Positive | PMI |
| Feb 20, 26 | Eurozone private sector activity showed modest growth in February, as the HCOB Composite PMI edged up to 51.9, surpassing the 51.5 estimate and indicating continued expansion. | EUR | Positive | PMI |
| Feb 20, 26 | In the fourth quarter, US core PCE increased 2.9% quarter over quarter, marginally above the anticipated 2.8%, signaling firmer underlying inflation pressures than expected. | USD | Positive | Inflation |
| Feb 20, 26 | Canada’s Industrial Product Price Index climbed 2.7% in January from the previous month, significantly surpassing expectations of a modest 0.2% increase and indicating stronger-than-anticipated producer price pressures. | CAD | Positive | PPI |
| Feb 20, 26 | The US S&P Global Composite PMI slipped to 52.3 in February, compared with the prior reading of 53, indicating a modest slowdown in overall business activity. | USD | Negative | PMI |
| Feb 23, 26 | New Zealand’s fourth quarter retail sales surpassed forecasts, rising 0.9% as discretionary purchases strengthened. Prospective rate reductions are likely to bolster household spending momentum into 2026. | NZD | Positive | Interest Rates |
| Feb 23, 26 | Germany’s IFO Current Assessment index climbed to 86.7 in February, surpassing expectations of 86.1 and signaling a modest improvement in business conditions compared with market projections. | EUR | Positive | Other |
| Feb 24, 26 | Oil prices recovered above 66.15, while renewed geopolitical strain between the United States and Iran raises the likelihood of heightened volatility across energy markets. | CAD | Positive | Other |
| Feb 25, 26 | Australia’s January inflation exceeded projections, lifting core prices to their highest level in a year and strengthening market expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates again in March. | AUD | Positive | RBA |
| Feb 25, 26 | Germany’s fourth quarter working day adjusted GDP expanded 0.6% from a year earlier, unchanged from the prior reading, indicating stable but modest economic momentum. | EUR | Neutral | GDP |
| Feb 25, 26 | Eurozone core consumer inflation held at 1.7% year over year in January, aligning with market projections, according to the latest Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices data release. | EUR | Neutral | Inflation |
| Feb 26, 26 | New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence declined to 59.2 in February from 64.1, while firms’ own activity outlook edged higher to 52.6, suggesting businesses remain cautiously optimistic about near-term conditions. | NZD | Negative | Inflation |
| Feb 26, 26 | A senior central bank official indicated that any further rate increases will proceed cautiously, depending on incoming data on economic performance, inflation developments, and overall financial market stability. | JPY | Neutral | BoJ |
| Feb 26, 26 | Eurozone services confidence declined in February, with the sentiment index dropping to 5, missing expectations of 7.5 and signaling softer momentum across the region’s service sector. | EUR | Negative | Other |
| Feb 26, 26 | The four week moving average of initial unemployment claims in the United States edged higher to 220.25K by February 20, up from 219K, indicating modest cooling in labor market momentum. | USD | Negative | Jobs |
| Feb 26, 26 | WTI crude prices remain stable as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran lend support, while a sharp increase in US crude inventories limits further upward momentum. | USD | Neutral | Other |
| Feb 27, 26 | Tokyo consumer prices rose 1.6% year on year in February, edging above January’s 1.5% pace and marginally exceeding expectations, indicating a gradual pickup in inflationary pressures. | JPY | Positive | Inflation |
| Feb 27, 26 | Japan’s construction orders rose 5.7% year over year in January, marking a significant slowdown compared with the previous 20.2% increase, signaling easing momentum in the sector. | JPY | Negative | Other |
| Feb 27, 26 | Spain’s annual consumer inflation climbed to 2.3% in February, edging above expectations of 2.2% and signaling a modest uptick in price pressures compared to market projections. | EUR | Negative | Inflation |
| Feb 27, 26 | Switzerland’s economy recorded a modest 0.1% quarterly expansion in the first quarter, missing expectations of 0.2% but rebounding from the prior 0.4% contraction as domestic demand showed signs of steadiness. | CHF | Positive | GDP |
| Feb 27, 26 | Bavaria’s annual consumer inflation moderated to 1.9% in February, easing from the previous 2.1% reading, signaling a slight deceleration in regional price pressures within Germany. | EUR | Positive | Inflation |
| Feb 27, 26 | Germany’s consumer prices increased by 0.2% in February compared with the anticipated 0.5% rise, indicating weaker inflation momentum than markets had projected for the month. | EUR | Negative | Inflation |
| Feb 27, 26 | Annual U.S. producer prices climbed 2.9 percent in January compared with a year earlier, exceeding expectations of 2.6 percent and signaling firmer upstream inflationary pressures. | USD | Positive | PPI |
| Feb 27, 26 | U.S. construction spending increased by 0.3% in December on a monthly basis, aligning precisely with market projections and signaling steady activity within the building sector. | USD | Neutral | Other |
| Mar 2, 26 | WTI crude climbed above $70 after OPEC+ accelerated production increases to 206,000 barrels per day from April, exceeding expectations and easing concerns following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. | USD | Positive | Other |
| Mar 2, 26 | Energy prices and government bond yields surged sharply as US-Israeli military action against Iran unsettled global markets, triggering equity declines worldwide, though US stocks showed relative resilience amid heightened volatility. | USD | Negative | Other |
| Currency | Overall Sentiment – Short Term | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| AUD | RBA hiked to 3.85% and signals more possible. China PPI stabilizing adds support. AUD rallied on tighter policy outlook. | Bullish |
| CAD | Bank of Canada sits at 3.75 percent with expectations for more aggressive rate cuts than the Fed due to cooling labor market and elevated household debt. Canadian CPI release scheduled for February 17 represents the key catalyst. Trade uncertainty and tariff risks weigh negatively on CAD as a commodity and export dependent currency. Oil price movements directly impact CAD valuation. | Neutral |
| EUR | Structural uptrend remains intact with price trading well above the 200 day moving average at 1.168. Institutional forecasts from Scotiabank and Westpac target 1.20 to 1.22 levels. The Euro benefits from expectations of cooling US inflation and potential Fed rate cuts in the coming quarter. | Bullish |
| GBP | Services PMI soft and BoE held rates with hints of future cuts. Pound recovered slightly after reassessing rate decision. | Neutral |
| JPY | Ruling party won strong majority boosting stimulus hopes. Political stability supports sentiment but yen weakened on fiscal outlook. | Neutral |
| NZD | The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 2.25% with a dovish outlook projecting 3% rates only by 2028. Governor Bremans debut was perceived as less hawkish than his predecessor. | Bearish |
| USD | The US dollar remains supported by a resilient domestic economy and favorable interest rate differentials. Upcoming US inflation data poses additional risk as hot readings could strengthen USD further. The greenback benefits from safe haven flows during risk off market conditions. | Bearish |
