CFTC Data
| Date | Currency | Type | Data | Current Report | Previous Report | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19 | AUD | Non Commercials | Long | 151,583 | 150,800 | 783 | 0.50% |
| May 19 | AUD | Non Commercials | Short | 65,939 | 65,810 | 129 | 0.20% |
| May 19 | AUD | Non Commercials | Net | 85,644 | 84,990 | 654 | Longs Add: 0.80% |
| May 19 | AUD | Leveraged Funds | Long | 92,064 | 87,122 | 4,942 | 5.70% |
| May 19 | AUD | Leveraged Funds | Short | 30,886 | 31,271 | -385 | -1.20% |
| May 19 | AUD | Leveraged Funds | Net | 61,178 | 55,851 | 5,327 | Longs Add: 9.50% |
| May 19 | GBP | Non Commercials | Long | 68,075 | 79,605 | -11,530 | -14.50% |
| May 19 | GBP | Non Commercials | Short | 132,382 | 122,664 | 9,718 | 7.90% |
| May 19 | GBP | Non Commercials | Net | -64,307 | -43,059 | -21,248 | Shorts Add: -49.30% |
| May 19 | GBP | Leveraged Funds | Long | 68,279 | 70,179 | -1,900 | -2.70% |
| May 19 | GBP | Leveraged Funds | Short | 36,910 | 32,877 | 4,033 | 12.30% |
| May 19 | GBP | Leveraged Funds | Net | 31,369 | 37,302 | -5,933 | Longs Cut: -15.90% |
| May 19 | CAD | Non Commercials | Long | 72,674 | 77,042 | -4,368 | -5.70% |
| May 19 | CAD | Non Commercials | Short | 103,905 | 93,284 | 10,621 | 11.40% |
| May 19 | CAD | Non Commercials | Net | -31,231 | -16,242 | -14,989 | Shorts Add: -92.30% |
| May 19 | CAD | Leveraged Funds | Long | 28,159 | 29,032 | -873 | -3.00% |
| May 19 | CAD | Leveraged Funds | Short | 66,813 | 66,695 | 118 | 0.20% |
| May 19 | CAD | Leveraged Funds | Net | -38,654 | -37,663 | -991 | Shorts Add: -2.60% |
| May 19 | EUR | Non Commercials | Long | 233,251 | 224,002 | 9,249 | 4.10% |
| May 19 | EUR | Non Commercials | Short | 199,738 | 183,802 | 15,936 | 8.70% |
| May 19 | EUR | Non Commercials | Net | 33,513 | 40,200 | -6,687 | Longs Cut: -16.60% |
| May 19 | EUR | Leveraged Funds | Long | 121,171 | 115,836 | 5,335 | 4.60% |
| May 19 | EUR | Leveraged Funds | Short | 104,854 | 97,833 | 7,021 | 7.20% |
| May 19 | EUR | Leveraged Funds | Net | 16,317 | 18,003 | -1,686 | Longs Cut: -9.40% |
| May 19 | JPY | Non Commercials | Long | 106,603 | 100,155 | 6,448 | 6.40% |
| May 19 | JPY | Non Commercials | Short | 200,508 | 175,257 | 25,251 | 14.40% |
| May 19 | JPY | Non Commercials | Net | -93,905 | -75,102 | -18,803 | Shorts Add: -25.00% |
| May 19 | JPY | Leveraged Funds | Long | 81,097 | 75,029 | 6,068 | 8.10% |
| May 19 | JPY | Leveraged Funds | Short | 146,042 | 137,469 | 8,573 | 6.20% |
| May 19 | JPY | Leveraged Funds | Net | -64,945 | -62,440 | -2,505 | Shorts Add: -4.00% |
| May 19 | CHF | Non Commercials | Long | 6,284 | 5,602 | 682 | 12.20% |
| May 19 | CHF | Non Commercials | Short | 43,221 | 41,799 | 1,422 | 3.40% |
| May 19 | CHF | Non Commercials | Net | -36,937 | -36,197 | -740 | Shorts Add: -2.00% |
| May 19 | CHF | Leveraged Funds | Long | 6,894 | 5,389 | 1,505 | 27.90% |
| May 19 | CHF | Leveraged Funds | Short | 11,739 | 13,097 | -1,358 | -10.40% |
| May 19 | CHF | Leveraged Funds | Net | -4,845 | -7,708 | 2,863 | Shorts Cut: 37.10% |
| May 19 | USD | Non Commercials | Long | 21,403 | 18,912 | 2,491 | 13.20% |
| May 19 | USD | Non Commercials | Short | 21,882 | 15,725 | 6,157 | 39.20% |
| May 19 | USD | Non Commercials | Net | -479 | 3,187 | -3,666 | Shorts Add: -115.00% |
| May 19 | USD | Leveraged Funds | Long | 11,286 | 9,720 | 1,566 | 16.10% |
| May 19 | USD | Leveraged Funds | Short | 23,002 | 14,471 | 8,531 | 59.00% |
| May 19 | USD | Leveraged Funds | Net | -11,716 | -4,751 | -6,965 | Shorts Add: -146.60% |
| May 19 | NZD | Non Commercials | Long | 12,319 | 11,846 | 473 | 4.00% |
| May 19 | NZD | Non Commercials | Short | 52,932 | 50,996 | 1,936 | 3.80% |
| May 19 | NZD | Non Commercials | Net | -40,613 | -39,150 | -1,463 | Shorts Add: -3.70% |
| May 19 | NZD | Leveraged Funds | Long | 9,929 | 7,792 | 2,137 | 27.40% |
| May 19 | NZD | Leveraged Funds | Short | 25,265 | 27,227 | -1,962 | -7.20% |
| May 19 | NZD | Leveraged Funds | Net | -15,336 | -19,435 | 4,099 | Shorts Cut: 21.10% |
| May 19 | EURGBP | Non Commercials | Long | 4,654 | 5,372 | -718 | -13.40% |
| May 19 | EURGBP | Non Commercials | Short | 3,179 | 3,739 | -560 | -15.00% |
| May 19 | EURGBP | Non Commercials | Net | 1,475 | 1,633 | -158 | Longs Cut: -9.70% |
| May 19 | EURGBP | Leveraged Funds | Long | 1,352 | 2,046 | -694 | -33.90% |
| May 19 | EURGBP | Leveraged Funds | Short | 2,728 | 3,288 | -560 | -17.00% |
| May 19 | EURGBP | Leveraged Funds | Net | -1,376 | -1,242 | -134 | Shorts Add: -10.80% |
| May 19 | EURJPY | Non Commercials | Long | 5,351 | 5,719 | -368 | -6.40% |
| May 19 | EURJPY | Non Commercials | Short | 5,333 | 5,460 | -127 | -2.30% |
| May 19 | EURJPY | Non Commercials | Net | 18 | 259 | -241 | Longs Cut: -93.10% |
| May 19 | EURJPY | Leveraged Funds | Long | 472 | 910 | -438 | -48.10% |
| May 19 | EURJPY | Leveraged Funds | Short | 974 | 795 | 179 | 22.50% |
| May 19 | EURJPY | Leveraged Funds | Net | -502 | 115 | -617 | Shorts Add: -536.50% |
| May 19 | USOIL | Non Commercials | Long | 384,294 | 371,491 | 12,803 | 3.40% |
| May 19 | USOIL | Non Commercials | Short | 211,714 | 201,614 | 10,100 | 5.00% |
| May 19 | USOIL | Non Commercials | Net | 172,580 | 169,877 | 2,703 | Longs Add: 1.60% |
| May 19 | USOIL | Leveraged Funds | Long | 207,565 | 187,332 | 20,233 | 10.80% |
| May 19 | USOIL | Leveraged Funds | Short | 109,346 | 114,531 | -5,185 | -4.50% |
| May 19 | USOIL | Leveraged Funds | Net | 98,219 | 72,801 | 25,418 | Longs Add: 34.90% |
| May 19 | GOLD | Non Commercials | Long | 211,018 | 219,793 | -8,775 | -4.00% |
| May 19 | GOLD | Non Commercials | Short | 51,185 | 48,171 | 3,014 | 6.30% |
| May 19 | GOLD | Non Commercials | Net | 159,833 | 171,622 | -11,789 | Longs Cut: -6.90% |
| May 19 | GOLD | Leveraged Funds | Long | 122,894 | 127,242 | -4,348 | -3.40% |
| May 19 | GOLD | Leveraged Funds | Short | 29,354 | 29,227 | 127 | 0.40% |
| May 19 | GOLD | Leveraged Funds | Net | 93,540 | 98,015 | -4,475 | Longs Cut: -4.60% |
| May 19 | SILVER | Non Commercials | Long | 34,591 | 36,569 | -1,978 | -5.40% |
| May 19 | SILVER | Non Commercials | Short | 9,920 | 10,458 | -538 | -5.10% |
| May 19 | SILVER | Non Commercials | Net | 24,671 | 26,111 | -1,440 | Longs Cut: -5.50% |
| May 19 | SILVER | Leveraged Funds | Long | 17,944 | 21,191 | -3,247 | -15.30% |
| May 19 | SILVER | Leveraged Funds | Short | 6,380 | 5,430 | 950 | 17.50% |
| May 19 | SILVER | Leveraged Funds | Net | 11,564 | 15,761 | -4,197 | Longs Cut: -26.60% |
| May 19 | True USD Index | Non Commercials | Long | 81,765,035,271 | 75,638,510,509 | 6,126,524,762 | 8.10% |
| May 19 | True USD Index | Non Commercials | Short | 72,765,558,442 | 72,517,637,510 | 247,920,932 | 0.30% |
| May 19 | True USD Index | Non Commercials | Net | 8,999,476,829 | 3,120,872,999 | 5,878,603,830 | Longs Add: 188.40% |
| May 19 | True USD Index | Leveraged Funds | Long | 43,689,098,921 | 41,450,816,573 | 2,238,282,348 | 5.40% |
| May 19 | True USD Index | Leveraged Funds | Short | 44,210,900,860 | 42,806,800,604 | 1,404,100,256 | 3.30% |
| May 19 | True USD Index | Leveraged Funds | Net | -521,801,939 | -1,355,984,031 | 834,182,092 | Shorts Cut: 61.50% |
| May 19 | BTC | Non Commercials | Long | 17,791 | 18,154 | -363 | -2.00% |
| May 19 | BTC | Non Commercials | Short | 15,679 | 16,895 | -1,216 | -7.20% |
| May 19 | BTC | Non Commercials | Net | 2,112 | 1,259 | 853 | Longs Add: 67.80% |
| May 19 | BTC | Leveraged Funds | Long | 5,253 | 4,347 | 906 | 20.80% |
| May 19 | BTC | Leveraged Funds | Short | 14,214 | 15,417 | -1,203 | -7.80% |
| May 19 | BTC | Leveraged Funds | Net | -8,961 | -11,070 | 2,109 | Shorts Cut: 19.10% |
COT Positioning Report
Commitments of Traders Analysis • Data as of 19 May 2026 • Report 21/2026
1. Movers & Shakers
🟢 Top Bullish Movers
| Instrument | Category | Key Move | Net Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD | Leveraged Funds | Longs Add +9.5% | +5,327 | Strong |
| CHF | Leveraged Funds | Shorts Cut +37.1% | +2,863 | Strong |
| NZD | Leveraged Funds | Shorts Cut +21.1% | +4,099 | Moderate |
| AUD | Non-Commercials | Longs Add +0.8% | +654 | Steady |
🔴 Top Bearish Movers
| Instrument | Category | Key Move | Net Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Leveraged Funds | Shorts Add -146.6% | -6,965 | Extreme |
| USD | Non-Commercials | Shorts Add -115.0% | -3,666 | Extreme |
| CAD | Non-Commercials | Shorts Add -92.3% | -14,989 | Extreme |
| GBP | Non-Commercials | Shorts Add -49.3% | -21,248 | Very Strong |
| JPY | Non-Commercials | Shorts Add -25.0% | -18,803 | Strong |
| EUR | Non-Commercials | Longs Cut -16.6% | -6,687 | Moderate |
| GOLD | Non-Commercials | Longs Cut -6.9% | -11,789 | Moderate |
2. Upcoming Week Outlook
Bias: Bearish — Both non-commercials and leveraged funds aggressively added shorts. The USD net position flipped negative (-479) for the first time, while leveraged funds net fell to -11,716. This is the largest single-week sentiment shift across all instruments.
⭐ Star Performer: Biggest bearish conviction of the week.
Bias: Bullish — The only currency with both categories adding longs. Leveraged funds added +4,942 longs (+5.7%) while also cutting shorts. Net position climbed to +85,644 (non-comm) and +61,178 (leveraged). Strongly held bullish consensus.
⭐ Star Performer: Cleanest bullish positioning across the board.
Bias: Bearish — Massive deterioration. Non-commercials cut 11,530 longs AND added 9,718 shorts, swinging net by -21,248 (the largest absolute net change). Leveraged funds also turned defensive. This is aggressive repositioning.
⚠️ Risk Area: Speed of the move suggests potential overshoot.
Bias: Bearish (vs USD) — Non-commercial shorts surged by 25,251 contracts to 200,508. Net position worsened to -93,905. The yen carry trade appears to be re-accelerating. Leveraged funds confirmed with -2,505 net change.
Note: Bearish JPY = bullish USD/JPY direction.
Bias: Bearish — Non-commercials aggressively shorted (+10,621 shorts, -4,368 longs). The -92.3% signal is the third-largest this week. Net collapsed from -16,242 to -31,231. Leveraged funds confirmed mildly bearish.
Bias: Mildly Bearish — Still net long (+33,513) but deteriorating. Both categories saw net reductions. The -16.6% signal in non-commercials indicates profit-taking on long EUR positions. Watch for a flip if trend continues.
Bias: Mixed/Improving — Non-commercials added modest shorts, but leveraged funds aggressively covered shorts (-1,962) and added longs (+2,137). Divergence suggests smart money turning constructive while specs remain bearish.
Bias: Mixed/Improving — Non-commercials remain heavily short (net -36,937) with mild additions. However, leveraged funds sharply covered shorts (-1,358) and added longs (+1,505). The 37.1% signal is notable bullish divergence.
Bias: Corrective/Mildly Bearish — Both categories reduced longs. Non-comm net fell by -11,789 to 159,833. Still structurally bullish (high net long) but the short-term momentum is fading. Profit-taking phase underway.
3. Key Trades to Watch
Rationale: AUD is the strongest bullish conviction (both categories adding longs) while USD is the strongest bearish conviction (both categories adding shorts aggressively). This dual-confirmation is rare and powerful. Net AUD positioning at +85,644 provides significant structural support.
Rationale: GBP saw the largest absolute net deterioration (-21,248) with aggressive long liquidation AND short building. Combined with USD weakness, GBP/USD could see choppy action, but GBP crosses (GBP/AUD short) may be cleaner expressions.
Rationale: AUD bullish across the board vs. CAD bearish with -92.3% signal. This cross removes USD noise entirely and captures the cleanest divergence in this week’s data. Leveraged fund flows confirm both directions.
Rationale: Conflicting signals — JPY aggressively sold (supports higher USD/JPY) but USD also aggressively sold. The pair could range. Lean cautiously higher given the sheer size of JPY shorting (+25,251 new shorts) but be prepared for two-way volatility.
Rationale: AUD positioning is categorically bullish while NZD non-commercials still adding shorts. Though NZD leveraged funds are covering, the divergence in non-commercial conviction favors AUD outperformance within the antipodean pair.
Rationale: Net long remains extremely elevated at +159,833. Current profit-taking (-11,789 net change) in a strong USD-bearish environment presents a buy-the-dip opportunity. Structural bullish trend intact; this is a pullback within that trend. Wait for stabilization signals.
4. Risk Factors & Crowded Positions
🚨 AUD Crowded Long: With non-commercial net at +85,644 and leveraged at +61,178, AUD is the most crowded long in the FX space. Any negative catalyst (China slowdown, risk-off event, RBA dovish surprise) could trigger sharp liquidation. The positioning is one-sided — exits will be violent.
🚨 JPY Extreme Short: Non-commercial shorts at 200,508 contracts with net -93,905. This is an extreme crowded short. Any BOJ policy surprise, risk-off shock, or sharp equity correction could trigger a massive short squeeze. USD/JPY flash crash risk is elevated.
🚨 GOLD Still Crowded Long: Despite profit-taking, net long of 159,833 remains historically elevated. A USD reversal or hawkish Fed repricing could accelerate long liquidation. The -11,789 reduction this week could be the start of a larger unwind.
🚨 GBP Velocity Risk: The -21,248 net swing in one week is extreme. Such rapid repositioning often overshoots. A GBP short squeeze is possible if macro data surprises positively or if the move was driven by event hedging that reverses.
🚨 USD Reversal Potential: While the bearish USD signal is the strongest this week, the net position only just flipped negative (-479). This early-stage flip could reverse quickly. Leveraged funds at -11,716 have more conviction, but the trade is getting crowded fast. Any hawkish Fed speak or strong US data could unwind.
