Gold Weekly Forecast

Forecast

Gold ended the week under pressure as higher US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar outweighed safe-haven demand from renewed Middle East tensions. Rising oil prices increased inflation concerns, leading markets to expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Next week’s direction will largely depend on US inflation data (CPI & PPI), Retail Sales, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, which could reshape rate expectations.

Key Numbers to Watch

• US CPI (June): Consensus +0.3% MoM, 2.9% YoY
• Core CPI: +0.3% MoM, 3.0% YoY
• US PPI: Expected +0.2% MoM
• US Retail Sales: Expected +0.2% MoM
• Fed Funds Rate: 3.50%–3.75%
• Market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike: ~62%
• Spot Gold: Around $4,100–4,120/oz at the end of the week.

Bottom line: Gold remains fundamentally supported by geopolitical risks, but US inflation and Federal Reserve expectations are the dominant drivers. A hotter-than-expected CPI would likely strengthen the USD and pressure gold, while softer inflation could revive bullish momentum.

Gold Near $4,100 as Stronger Dollar Limits Upside

Gold is trading near $4,100 and is on track for a 1.7% weekly decline. Higher oil prices, Iran tensions, and expectations of tighter monetary policy have weighed on precious metals. Markets remain cautious as reports suggest the US and Iran may resume nuclear talks. A firmer US Dollar, with the DXY nearing 101.00, is also limiting Gold’s upside.

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Tech Weakness and Sticky Inflation Keep USD Supported

Morning briefing: Dollar sentiment remains firm today, with USD strength supported by weakness in tech stocks and a market still focused on sticky inflation and higher rates. When rate expectations stay elevated, growth and tech names usually come under pressure, and that risk-off tone tends to keep the dollar supported. With PCE due tomorrow, the base case for today is still to look for demand on USD dips.

On the AUD side, the latest Australian inflation data came in hot, with trimmed mean CPI at 3.6% versus 3.4% prior, which keeps the RBA leaning hawkish. Even so, AUD/USD still looks technically weak below key moving averages, so any bounce may struggle to hold and could run into fresh supply. For today, the main focus remains watching for supply on rallies in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while keeping an eye on AUD/USD for a possible short-lived rebound into supply.

In short, the dollar remains the main story for now, and until tomorrow’s PCE shifts the narrative, the market may continue to favor USD demand over chasing reversals.

Markets Price One Fed Hike, BofA Sees Three

• Markets are currently pricing around 40bps of hikes through year-end, fully pricing one 25bp rate hike and assigning roughly a 60% probability to a second.
• Meanwhile, Bank of America expects the FOMC to hike three times this year. 

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Gold Falls as Fed Outlook Weighs on XAUUSD

• Gold fell as traders focused on sticky inflation and firm US data, with the early optimism from US-Iran peace talks fading quickly.
• Bullion slipped toward USD 4,100/oz as the market reassessed how much support it can expect from the Fed.
• Deutsche Bank cut its gold forecasts by more than 20% and now sees bullion at USD 4,300/oz in Q3 and USD 4,800/oz in Q4, citing Fed repricing and resilient US data. XAUUSD

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