| Currency | Overall Sentiment – Short Term | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| AUD | RBA hiked to 3.85% and signals more possible. China PPI stabilizing adds support. AUD rallied on tighter policy outlook. | Bullish |
| CAD | Bank of Canada sits at 3.75 percent with expectations for more aggressive rate cuts than the Fed due to cooling labor market and elevated household debt. Canadian CPI release scheduled for February 17 represents the key catalyst. Trade uncertainty and tariff risks weigh negatively on CAD as a commodity and export dependent currency. Oil price movements directly impact CAD valuation. | Neutral |
| EUR | Structural uptrend remains intact with price trading well above the 200 day moving average at 1.168. Institutional forecasts from Scotiabank and Westpac target 1.20 to 1.22 levels. The Euro benefits from expectations of cooling US inflation and potential Fed rate cuts in the coming quarter. | Bullish |
| GBP | Services PMI soft and BoE held rates with hints of future cuts. Pound recovered slightly after reassessing rate decision. | Neutral |
| JPY | Risk factors include escalation in US–Iran tensions disrupting oil flows and shifting inflation expectations. Action plan: monitor demand near growth-supportive data and supply around energy-driven inflation spikes as Fed guidance recalibrates policy expectations. | Bullish |
| NZD | The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 2.25% with a dovish outlook projecting 3% rates only by 2028. Governor Bremans debut was perceived as less hawkish than his predecessor. | Bearish |
| USD | Quote currency moves within demand shaped by oil-price pass-through to inflation and supply driven by uncertainty over Fed policy balance between inflation risk and growth risk. The main driver is energy volatility amplifying macro forecast uncertainty. | Bullish |
Currency Index
| Currency | Bias | GDP Growth | Unemployment Rate | Interest Rate | CPI YoY | Real Interest Rate | Instrument | Futures Bias | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD | Neutral | 0.80% | 4.30% | 4.10% | 4.60% | -0.50% | 6A | Very Bullish | 43 | |
| CAD | Bearish | -0.20% | 6.70% | 2.25% | 2.40% | -0.15% | 6C | Mild Bullish | 39 | |
| CHF | Neutral | 0.10% | 3.10% | 0.00% | 0.30% | -0.30% | 6S | Bullish | 19 | |
| EUR | Bearish | 0.10% | 6.20% | 2.15% | 3.00% | -0.85% | 6E | Mild Bearish | -9 | |
| GBP | Neutral | 0.10% | 4.90% | 3.75% | 3.30% | 0.45% | 6B | Very Bullish | 49 | |
| JPY | Neutral | 0.30% | 2.70% | 0.75% | 1.50% | -0.75% | 6J | Very Bearish | -37 | |
| NZD | Bearish | 0.20% | 5.40% | 2.25% | 3.10% | -0.85% | 6N | Bearish | -24 | |
| USD | Bullish | 2.00% | 4.30% | 3.75% | 3.30% | 0.45% | DXY | Very Bullish | 46 |
