| Currency | Overall Sentiment – Short Term | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| AUD | RBA hiked to 3.85% and signals more possible. China PPI stabilizing adds support. AUD rallied on tighter policy outlook. | Bullish |
| CAD | Bank of Canada sits at 3.75 percent with expectations for more aggressive rate cuts than the Fed due to cooling labor market and elevated household debt. Canadian CPI release scheduled for February 17 represents the key catalyst. Trade uncertainty and tariff risks weigh negatively on CAD as a commodity and export dependent currency. Oil price movements directly impact CAD valuation. | Neutral |
| EUR | Structural uptrend remains intact with price trading well above the 200 day moving average at 1.168. Institutional forecasts from Scotiabank and Westpac target 1.20 to 1.22 levels. The Euro benefits from expectations of cooling US inflation and potential Fed rate cuts in the coming quarter. | Bullish |
| GBP | Services PMI soft and BoE held rates with hints of future cuts. Pound recovered slightly after reassessing rate decision. | Neutral |
| JPY | Ruling party won strong majority boosting stimulus hopes. Political stability supports sentiment but yen weakened on fiscal outlook. | Neutral |
| NZD | The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 2.25% with a dovish outlook projecting 3% rates only by 2028. Governor Bremans debut was perceived as less hawkish than his predecessor. | Bearish |
| USD | The US dollar remains supported by a resilient domestic economy and favorable interest rate differentials. Upcoming US inflation data poses additional risk as hot readings could strengthen USD further. The greenback benefits from safe haven flows during risk off market conditions. | Bearish |
Currency Index Table
| Currency | Bias | GDP Growth | Unemployment Rate | Interest Rate | CPI YoY | Real Interest Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD | Neutral | 0.40% | 4.10% | 3.85% | 3.80% | 0.05% |
| CAD | Bearish | 0.20% | 6.50% | 2.25% | 2.30% | -0.05% |
| CHF | Neutral | 0.10% | 3.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.10% |
| EUR | Bearish | 0.30% | 6.20% | 2.15% | 1.70% | 0.45% |
| GBP | Neutral | 0.10% | 5.20% | 3.75% | 3.00% | 0.75% |
| JPY | Neutral | 0.10% | 2.60% | 0.75% | 1.50% | -0.75% |
| NZD | Neutral | 1.10% | 5.40% | 2.25% | 3.10% | -0.85% |
| USD | Bullish | 1.40% | 4.30% | 3.75% | 2.40% | 1.35% |
