| Currency | Overall Sentiment – Short Term | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| AUD | RBA hiked to 3.85% and signals more possible. China PPI stabilizing adds support. AUD rallied on tighter policy outlook. | Bullish |
| CAD | Bank of Canada sits at 3.75 percent with expectations for more aggressive rate cuts than the Fed due to cooling labor market and elevated household debt. Canadian CPI release scheduled for February 17 represents the key catalyst. Trade uncertainty and tariff risks weigh negatively on CAD as a commodity and export dependent currency. Oil price movements directly impact CAD valuation. | Neutral |
| EUR | Structural uptrend remains intact with price trading well above the 200 day moving average at 1.168. Institutional forecasts from Scotiabank and Westpac target 1.20 to 1.22 levels. The Euro benefits from expectations of cooling US inflation and potential Fed rate cuts in the coming quarter. | Bullish |
| GBP | Services PMI soft and BoE held rates with hints of future cuts. Pound recovered slightly after reassessing rate decision. | Neutral |
| JPY | Ruling party won strong majority boosting stimulus hopes. Political stability supports sentiment but yen weakened on fiscal outlook. | Neutral |
| NZD | The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 2.25% with a dovish outlook projecting 3% rates only by 2028. Governor Bremans debut was perceived as less hawkish than his predecessor. | Bearish |
| USD | Bearish |
Currency Index Table
| Date | Currency | News | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Category | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 | CAD | Overnight Rate | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | BoC | Neutral |
| Jan 29 | USD | Federal Funds Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% | Fed | Neutral |
| Feb 3 | AUD | Cash Rate | 3.85% | 3.85% | 3.60% | RBA | Neutral |
| Feb 4 | NZD | Employment Change q/q | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.00% | Jobs | Bullish |
| Feb 4 | NZD | Unemployment Rate | 5.40% | 5.30% | 5.30% | Jobs | Bearish |
| Feb 5 | USD | JOLTS Job Openings | 6.54M | 7.25M | 6.93M | Jobs | Bearish |
| Feb 5 | GBP | Official Bank Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% | BoE | Neutral |
| Feb 5 | EUR | Main Refinancing Rate | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | ECB | Neutral |
| Feb 6 | USD | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 57.3 | 55 | 56.4 | UoM | Bullish |
| Feb 6 | USD | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | 3.50% | 4.00% | UoM | ||
| Mar 13 | CAD | Employment Change | -83.9K | 10.3K | -24.8K | Jobs | Bearish |
| Mar 13 | CAD | Unemployment Rate | 6.70% | 6.60% | 6.50% | Jobs | Bearish |
| Mar 13 | GBP | GDP m/m | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.10% | GDP | Bearish |
| Mar 13 | GBP | GDP y/y | 0.80% | 0.90% | 0.70% | GDP | Bearish |
| Mar 13 | GBP | GDP Estimate 3M/3M | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.10% | GDP | Bearish |
| Feb 13 | CHF | CPI m/m | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | Inflation | Bearish |
| Feb 13 | USD | Core CPI m/m | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% | Inflation | Neutral |
| Feb 13 | USD | CPI m/m | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% | Inflation | Neutral |
| Feb 13 | USD | CPI y/y | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.40% | Inflation | Neutral |
| Feb 13 | USD | Core CPI y/y | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | Inflation | Neutral |
| Feb 17 | GBP | Claimant Count Change | 28.6K | 22.8K | 2.7K | Jobs | Bullish |
| Feb 17 | CAD | CPI m/m | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.20% | Inflation | Bearish |
| Feb 17 | CAD | Median CPI y/y | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.60% | Inflation | Neutral |
| Feb 17 | CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y | 2.40% | 2.60% | 2.70% | Inflation | Bearish |
| Feb 18 | GBP | CPI y/y | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.40% | Inflation | Neutral |
| Feb 18 | NZD | RBNZ | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | RBNZ | Neutral |
| Feb 19 | AUD | Employment Change | 17.8K | 20.0K | 68.5K | Jobs | Bearish |
| Feb 19 | AUD | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | 4.20% | 4.10% | Jobs | Bullish |
| Feb 19 | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | Fed | ||||
| Feb 20 | GBP | Retail Sales m/m | 1.80% | 0.20% | 0.40% | Retail Sales | Bullish |
| Feb 20 | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.7 | 49.6 | 49.1 | PMI | Bullish |
| Feb 20 | EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 53.4 | 52.4 | 52.4 | PMI | Bullish |
| Feb 20 | GBP | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52 | 51.5 | 51.8 | PMI | Bullish |
| Feb 20 | GBP | Flash Services PMI | 53.9 | 53.5 | 54 | PMI | Bullish |
| Feb 20 | USD | Advance GDP q/q | 1.40% | 2.80% | 4.40% | GDP | Bearish |
| Mar 13 | USD | Prelim GDP q/q | 0.70% | 1.40% | 1.40% | GDP | Bearish |
| Mar 13 | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | Inflation | Neutral |
| Mar 13 | USD | PCE Price Index y/y | 2.80% | 2.90% | 2.90% | Inflation | Bearish |
| Feb 20 | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.2 | 52.4 | 52.4 | PMI | Bearish |
| Feb 20 | USD | Flash Services PMI | 52.3 | 53 | 52.7 | PMI | Bearish |
| Feb 20 | USD | President Trump Speaks | Trump | ||||
| Feb 25 | AUD | CPI m/m | 0.40% | 0.20% | 1.00% | Inflation | Bullish |
| Feb 25 | AUD | CPI y/y | 3.80% | 3.70% | 3.80% | Inflation | Bullish |
| Feb 25 | AUD | Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.20% | Inflation | Bearish |
| Feb 25 | USD | President Trump Speaks | Trump | ||||
| Feb 27 | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.00% | GDP | Bullish |
| Feb 27 | USD | Core PPI m/m | 0.80% | 0.30% | 0.60% | PPI | Bullish |
| Feb 27 | USD | PPI m/m | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.40% | PPI | Bullish |
| Mar 2 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 51.7 | 52.6 | PMI | Bullish |
| Mar 3 | AUD | RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | RBA | ||||
| Mar 3 | JPY | BOJ | 0.75% | 0.75% | 0.75% | BoJ | Neutral |
| Mar 4 | AUD | GDP q/q | 0.80% | 0.70% | 0.50% | GDP | Bullish |
| Mar 4 | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 63K | 50K | 11K | Jobs | Bullish |
| Mar 4 | USD | ISM Services PMI | 56.1 | 53.5 | 53.8 | PMI | Bullish |
| Mar 12 | USD | Unemployment Claims | 213K | 214K | 214K | Jobs | Bullish |
| Mar 6 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | Jobs | Bullish |
| Mar 6 | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.00% | Retail Sales | Bearish |
| Mar 6 | USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | -92K | 58K | 126K | Jobs | Bearish |
| Mar 6 | USD | Retail Sales m/m | -0.20% | -0.30% | 0.00% | Retail Sales | Bullish |
| Mar 6 | USD | Unemployment Rate | 4.40% | 4.30% | 4.30% | Jobs | Bearish |
