Interest Rate Probability
| Bank | Rate | Next Meeting | Impl bp | Move | Cut | Hold | Hike | Bias | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75% | Sep 16, 26 | 10 | Hold | 0% | 59% | 42% | Hawkish | 5 Days |
| ECBⓘ | 2.40% | Sep 10, 26 | 24 | Hike | 0% | 5% | 95% | Neutral | 1 Days Ago |
| BoE | 3.75% | Sep 17, 26 | 4 | Hold | 0% | 85% | 15% | Neutral | 6 Days |
| BoJ | 1.00% | Sep 18, 26 | 19 | Hike | 0% | 25% | 75% | Hawkish | 7 Days |
| SNB | 0.00% | Sep 24, 26 | 1 | Hold | 0% | 97% | 3% | Hawkish | 13 Days |
| RBA | 4.35% | Sep 29, 26 | 19 | Hike | 0% | 23% | 77% | Hawkish | 18 Days |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Oct 28, 26 | 7 | Hold | 0% | 72% | 28% | Neutral | 47 Days |
| BoC | 2.25% | Oct 28, 26 | 8 | Hold | 0% | 67% | 33% | Neutral | 47 Days |
Central Bank Stance
| Meeting | Impl bp | Adjusted % | Move | Cut | Hold | Hike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 26 | 10.4 | 3.85% | Hold | 0% | 59% | 42% |
| Oct 28, 26 | 24.7 | 4.00% | Hike | 0% | 43% | 57% |
| Dec 09, 26 | 36.9 | 4.12% | Hold | 0% | 51% | 49% |
| Jan 27, 27 | 40.5 | 4.16% | Hold | 0% | 86% | 14% |
| Mar 17, 27 | 48.7 | 4.24% | Hold | 0% | 67% | 33% |
| Apr 28, 27 | 56.2 | 4.31% | Hold | 0% | 70% | 30% |
| Jun 09, 27 | 64.4 | 4.39% | Hold | 0% | 67% | 33% |
| Jul 28, 27 | 72.6 | 4.48% | Hold | 0% | 67% | 33% |
| Sep 15, 27 | 64.3 | 4.39% | Hold | 33% | 67% | 0% |
| Oct 27, 27 | 68.4 | 4.43% | Hold | 0% | 84% | 16% |
EU Fundamental Data
| EU Data | Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Sentiment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth QoQ | Jun 5, 26 | -0.30% | -0.20% | 0.10% | 0.10% | Bearish |
| Unemployment Rate | Jul 2, 26 | -0.10% | 6.20% | 6.30% | 6.20% | Bullish |
| Retail Sales MoM | Jul 6, 26 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | Neutral |
| PPI YoY | Jul 6, 26 | 0.20% | 5.90% | 5.70% | 5.00% | Bullish |
| CPI YoY | Jul 17, 26 | 0.00% | 2.80% | 2.80% | 3.20% | Neutral |
| Manufacturing PMIs | Jul 24, 26 | 0.5 | 52 | 51.5 | 51.4 | Bullish |
| Services PMIs | Jul 24, 26 | 1.8 | 51.6 | 49.8 | 49.4 | Bullish |
| German Service PMI Flash | Jul 24, 26 | 0.6 | 49.6 | 49 | 48.6 | Bullish |
| German Manufacturing PMI Flash | Jul 24, 26 | 1.7 | 52.2 | 50.5 | 50.3 | Bullish |
| German Composite PMI Flash | Jul 24, 26 | 1.5 | 51.2 | 49.7 | 49.5 | Bullish |
| Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Flash | Jul 24, 26 | 0.5 | 52 | 51.5 | 51.4 | Bullish |
| French Manufacturing PMI Flash | Jul 24, 26 | -1 | 50 | 51 | 51.2 | Bearish |
