Interest Rate Probability
| Bank | Rate | Next Meeting | Impl bp | Move | Cut | Hold | Hike | Bias | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.88% | Oct 28, 26 | 9 | Hike | 0% | 63% | 37% | Hawkish | 26 Days |
| ECB | 2.50% | Oct 29, 26 | 11 | Hike | 0% | 56% | 44% | Neutral | 27 Days |
| BoE | 3.75% | Nov 5, 26 | 23 | Hike | 0% | 7% | 93% | Hawkish | 34 Days |
| BoJ | 1.25% | Oct 30, 26 | 9 | Hike | 0% | 64% | 36% | Hawkish | 28 Days |
| SNB | 0.00% | Dec 10, 26 | 8 | Hike | 0% | 70% | 30% | Neutral | 69 Days |
| RBA | 4.60% | Nov 3, 26 | 9 | Hike | 0% | 64% | 36% | Hawkish | 32 Days |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Oct 28, 26 | 20 | Hike | 0% | 20% | 80% | Neutral | 26 Days |
| BoC | 2.25% | Oct 28, 26 | 18 | Hike | 0% | 26% | 74% | Neutral | 26 Days |
Central Bank Stance
| Meeting | Impl bp | Adjusted % | Move | Cut | Hold | Hike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 26 | 9.3 | 3.97% | Hike 9 | 0% | 63% | 37% |
| Dec 09, 26 | 12.0 | 4.00% | Hike 3 | 0% | 89% | 11% |
| Jan 27, 27 | 54.5 | 4.43% | Hike 43 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Mar 17, 27 | 80.5 | 4.69% | Hike 26 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Apr 28, 27 | 82.2 | 4.70% | Hike 2 | 0% | 93% | 7% |
| Jun 09, 27 | 83.8 | 4.72% | Hike 2 | 0% | 94% | 6% |
| Jul 28, 27 | 91.5 | 4.80% | Hike 8 | 0% | 69% | 31% |
| Sep 15, 27 | 93.2 | 4.81% | Hike 2 | 0% | 93% | 7% |
| Oct 27, 27 | 94.6 | 4.83% | Hike 1 | 0% | 94% | 6% |
EU Fundamental Data
| EU Data | Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Sentiment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth QoQ | Jun 5, 26 | -0.30% | -0.20% | 0.10% | 0.10% | Bearish |
| Unemployment Rate | Jul 2, 26 | -0.10% | 6.20% | 6.30% | 6.20% | Bullish |
| Retail Sales MoM | Jul 6, 26 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | Neutral |
| PPI YoY | Jul 6, 26 | 0.20% | 5.90% | 5.70% | 5.00% | Bullish |
| CPI YoY | Jul 17, 26 | 0.00% | 2.80% | 2.80% | 3.20% | Neutral |
| Manufacturing PMIs | Jul 24, 26 | 0.5 | 52 | 51.5 | 51.4 | Bullish |
| Services PMIs | Jul 24, 26 | 1.8 | 51.6 | 49.8 | 49.4 | Bullish |
| German Service PMI Flash | Jul 24, 26 | 0.6 | 49.6 | 49 | 48.6 | Bullish |
| German Manufacturing PMI Flash | Jul 24, 26 | 1.7 | 52.2 | 50.5 | 50.3 | Bullish |
| German Composite PMI Flash | Jul 24, 26 | 1.5 | 51.2 | 49.7 | 49.5 | Bullish |
| Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Flash | Jul 24, 26 | 0.5 | 52 | 51.5 | 51.4 | Bullish |
| French Manufacturing PMI Flash | Jul 24, 26 | -1 | 50 | 51 | 51.2 | Bearish |
