Forecast

Gold ended the week under pressure as higher US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar outweighed safe-haven demand from renewed Middle East tensions. Rising oil prices increased inflation concerns, leading markets to expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Next week’s direction will largely depend on US inflation data (CPI & PPI), Retail Sales, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, which could reshape rate expectations.

Key Numbers to Watch

• US CPI (June): Consensus +0.3% MoM, 2.9% YoY
• Core CPI: +0.3% MoM, 3.0% YoY
• US PPI: Expected +0.2% MoM
• US Retail Sales: Expected +0.2% MoM
• Fed Funds Rate: 3.50%–3.75%
• Market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike: ~62%
• Spot Gold: Around $4,100–4,120/oz at the end of the week.

Bottom line: Gold remains fundamentally supported by geopolitical risks, but US inflation and Federal Reserve expectations are the dominant drivers. A hotter-than-expected CPI would likely strengthen the USD and pressure gold, while softer inflation could revive bullish momentum.